Iowa wants to force Michigan State to pass, which the Spartans should do more anyway

The preseason AP top 10 looked like this:

Nos. 6 through 9 combined to average an 8-4 record. (Full disclosure: I wasn’t as high on Auburn or USC ... but was much higher on Oregon and Georgia.) Only two of these 10 (Alabama and Michigan State) are in the top five of the Playoff rankings, and while Michigan State has looked the part of late, the Spartans were so lackluster in the first half of the season that they fell to seventh after seven weeks despite remaining unbeaten.

After fluky endings, twists, turns and 13 weeks, here we are, with five teams either already in the Playoff (preseason No. 19 Oklahoma) or one win away (preseason No. 3 Alabama, No. 5 Michigan State, No. 12 Clemson and unranked Iowa). Three other teams have outside shots with some chaos: preseason No. 1 Ohio State, No. 21 Stanford and unranked North Carolina.

If it was predictable, it wouldn’t be as fun, right?

Because of its play-in nature, the biggest game of conference championship week is in Indianapolis (8 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX), where undefeated Iowa meets a Michigan State that’s been underwhelming against lesser teams and elite against elites.

Team sports come down to three things: acquiring talent, developing it and deploying it.

With recruiting rankings, we know who does the best job of acquiring college football talent. But even if you are outside of the elite, you can make up ground by mastering the other two.

No matter what you choose (spread, power, 4-3, 3-4, etc.) so much of deployment comes down to knowing how you’re going to move the ball and stop the other team from moving it. That might not make the difference if you’re outmanned, but against teams of similar talent levels, identity can make all the difference.

To date, Iowa hasn’t been outmanned. The Hawkeyes have played a strange schedule that featured few truly bad teams and no particularly good ones: eight of 12 opponents rank between 41st and 74th in S&P+, with three falling below that mark and one (Wisconsin) sliding in above it. Against this group of decent competition, Iowa has navigated potholes with aplomb, winning five games by one possession and only two by more than 17 points.

This doesn’t make Iowa an elite team. The best sign of elite play is dominance, and there’s been little. But until you lose, we don’t know that you will.

The Hawkeyes:

Iowa dictates how a game is going to be played and knows how to win a game of that nature.

Michigan State is by far the best team the Hawkeyes have played this year, and maybe the Spartans are so good that they drag Iowa out of this comfort zone. (Among other things, forcing Michigan State to throw the ball could be detrimental to your defensive health.) But if Iowa is able to define the terms, Sparty could be in trouble.

Interviews of anonymous opposing coaches can be interesting, and this one by the Big Ten Network’s Tom Dienhart was well done. A couple of passages on Michigan State were fascinating.

The one thing you have to do to beat Michigan State—which I don’t think Iowa does very well—and that is throw the football. If we could have thrown the ball vs. Michigan State, we would have had a chance. We hurt ourselves with turnovers and special teams, but we had success moving the ball on those guys. If you can throw the ball on Michigan State, that is where you can beat them.

They are the best defensive front in the Big Ten. Better than Penn State’s front, they are better than Ohio State. They have some athletic big boys.

Sometimes your reputation precedes you. You can use that to your advantage. Michigan State’s reputation under Mark Dantonio is one of devastating run defense and aggressive pass defense. The Spartans want to take you out of your comfort zone, give you throws you don’t want to make and shut you down up front.

Opponents have avoided running against Michigan State this year. Michigan State is facing runs only 57 percent of the time on standard downs (95th in FBS) and 27 percent on passing downs (118th). But here’s the deal: the pass defense has been awesome (eighth in Passing S&P+) and the run defense has been inconsistent (30th in Rushing S&P+).

Opponents that have dedicated themselves to the ground game have had some success. Purdue’s Markell Jones rushed 22 times for 157 yards (7.1 per carry), Nebraska’s Imani Cross rushed 18 for 98 (5.4), Penn State’s Saquon Barkley had 17 for 103 (6.1), and the Rutgers trio of Paul James, Robert Martin, and Josh Hicks had 22 for 160 (7.3).

At times, opponents might have given up on the run too early. Iowa’s not going to do that.

Of course, part of an opponent’s success has to do with what Michigan State wants to take away. In 55 carries by Oregon’s Royce Freeman, Michigan’s De’Veon Smith and Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott, the Spartans allowed only 171 yards, 3.1 per carry. You might think you need to throw the ball, but State is going to have a say in what you are allowed to do.

Another blurb from a coach:

How do you defend them? Commit to stopping the run. We did it. But Connor Cook hurt us. We shut down their run game. You have to stop their run. If they are going to beat you, make them throw it. They really have only one good receiver in (Aaron) Burbridge. Cook goes to him a lot. Find a way to take him out of the game. And you have to hit Cook. But Iowa isn’t very good at getting pressure. They aren’t a huge blitz or pressure team. Cook may sit back there and pick them apart.

MSU wants to run the ball but hasn’t been good at it. The Spartans rank 109th in Rushing S&P+ despite rushing as frequently as almost anybody on standard downs (69 percent, 19th in FBS). It is their identity, and they get away with it because Cook is so brilliant at bailing them out on passing downs.

Despite predictability (they throw 78 percent of the time on passing downs, eighth in FBS, which would appear to allow you to blitz without fear of draw plays), State ranks 12th in Passing Downs S&P+. Cook is so comfortable in those situations, and Aaron Burbridge has turned into a hell of a No. 1 receiver.

Committing to stopping State’s run might lead State to lean more heavily on its actual strength.

Standard downs

Passing downs

Standard downs

Passing downs

Both defenses have significant advantages on standard downs, when the offense is supposed to be in control. But both offenses could bail themselves out on passing downs.

Cook is effective in those situations, but Iowa’s C.J. Beathard has been almost equally effective. On third-and-7 or more, Beathard has completed 26 of 44 passes for 458 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. That’s a passer rating around 160. Beathard’s more sackable than Cook, but only marginally so.

We know there will be a lot of first-down rushes in this game. But in the end, the victor might be determined by third-down passing. S&P+ gives Cook and Michigan State a 62 percent chance of winning (average margin: about five points), but Beathard’s similar capabilities cannot be overlooked.