The numbers hate Houston’s chances for a Peach Bowl upset of FSU. Why?

Tom Herman’s first Houston team emulated the program he left a year ago.

The Cougars play like Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes. They operate a run-heavy system with a dual-threat quarterback, they control field position, they finish drives well and they attack the ball on defense. While the AAC has not had a pleasant bowl season, it was still by far the best mid-major conference, and despite dealing with a quarterback injury late in the year (really emulating last year’s Buckeyes), they survived to take the conference title with a 12-1 record.

The computers were taking Ohio State seriously before the humans did last year, pointing out how well the Buckeyes were playing before we were ready to move on from their loss to Virginia Tech.

So why aren’t the computers doing the same for Houston?

In the Massey Composite, UH grades out pretty well. The Cougars slide in at 15th, just six spots behind Florida State. But the further down your formula drills, the worse your numbers probably favor Houston. Ed Feng’s Power Rank drills down to per-play averages and ranks the Cougars 33rd. ESPN’s FPI looks at per-play averages and factors that contribute directly to wins and losses and places Houston 41st.

My S&P+ system is based on per-play and per-drive data and aspects that contribute to the Five Factors and completely disrespects the Cougars, ranking them 48th.

Why is this? What have the Cougars done to rank so lowly at the per-play level? This is easy to explain by simply looking at ... yards per play. From a few big games:

S&P+ involves more than just that, but think about this for a second.

In four of Houston’s 12 wins, the Cougars were outgained on a per-play basis by at least half a yard. In two of the four, they were outgained by at least 1.3 yards per play. Think about the disadvantage that this creates for you. You have to be awesome in the red zone, awesome at field position and probably lucky in turnovers to win with that disadvantage.

(Ironically, in the one game Houston lost -- 20-17 to UConn -- the Cougars had the per-play advantage.)

Houston has been good at key moments and has pounced on every opportunity. That’s a sign of a well-coached team. But from a predictive standpoint, winning in this manner doesn’t suggest you would continue to win over the course of a longer schedule. Per-play measures like these attempt to look at the factors that would allow you to continue winning.

Houston has played with minimal margin for error for much of the season. And the Cougars have looked quite awesome at other times. Perhaps that continues against a Florida State that doesn’t have much to play for.

But while we all enjoy teams that “just find a way to win,” the numbers don’t. If both FSU and Houston play their typical games, which would likely result in the Seminoles generating a healthy per-play advantage, the Cougars would need turnovers and serious field position magic to keep up.

Jimbo Fisher might have pulled off one of his most impressive coaching jobs in 2015.

Despite basically losing their entire passing game and four three- or four-year starters on the offensive line, the Seminoles rank 19th in Off. S&P+. Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 1,650 yards and showed elite explosiveness despite playing with a bum hamstring, had a ton to do with this.

And despite a rebuild on the defensive line, the Seminoles are a stout ninth in Def. S&P+.

FSU lost only two games in a rebuilding year: a fluky, blocked-FG-returned-for-TD loss at Georgia Tech and an excusable 10-point loss at No. 1 Clemson. The dud at Tech may not have been impressive, but FSU still beat Miami, manhandled NC State and Louisville and crushed Florida. If this is what a down year looks like in Tallahassee, that’s a terrifying thought.

Florida State is mistake-prone and doesn’t produce much in the big-play department outside of Cook. But on a per-play basis, the Seminoles have been one of the most consistently strong teams in the country this year. If they deliver their A-game, Houston cannot compete.

But does FSU actually want to be in Atlanta? Its fans really don’t. Even with an A-game, the Seminoles aren’t going to prove anything against Houston that they didn’t against Florida.

In last year’s Peach Bowl, TCU parlayed anger -- the Horned Frogs barely missed reaching the Playoff -- into a devastating win over Ole Miss. Neither Houston nor FSU has any reason to play angry, but a win would certainly do more for UH than it would for the Noles.

If the Seminoles get caught looking ahead to 2016 and don’t take Houston seriously, the Cougars have proven they are smart enough to take the upset. Can FSU use the Peach Bowl as a jumping-off point for a ferocious year, or have they already jumped off?

Check out the monstrous stat preview here.

Houston

Florida State

The advantages tell the tale. Houston’s greatest defensive strength is making stops in the backfield and throwing opponents off-schedule. FSU’s run-blocking has been glitchy enough to perhaps allow the Cougars to do so.

Meanwhile, Houston doesn’t tend to lose ground in run situations; the Cougars might not gain a ton (as their first-down ratings suggest), but they don’t go backwards.

If Houston is gaining enough to create second-and-6 or second-and-7, and if the Cougars are stuffing Cook enough to put pressure on quarterback Sean Maguire to make big throws on passing downs (even though he’s been pretty good at that), they will have defined this game in a way that puts an upset on the table.

If they can’t do that, or if Cook breaks off too many big runs, FSU should have its 11th win wrapped up not too far into the second half.