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2015 Miami Beach Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: South Florida vs. Western Kentucky

Miami Beach Bowl

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (11-2) vs. South Florida Bulls (8-4)

December 21 ( 2:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Marlins Park, Miami
Spread: Western Kentucky -3.5
S&P+ Projection: Western Kentucky 36.1, South Florida 25.6
Team Sites: Underdog Dynasty (WKU), Underdog Dynasty (USF)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Western Kentucky South Florida
S&P+ (Rk) 11 49
Category Western Kentucky offense South Florida defense South Florida offense Western Kentucky defense
Yards per play (Rk) 6.98 (2) 4.80 (29) 5.88 (34) 5.44 (79)
Yards per game (Rk) 518.9 (9) 360.5 (41) 414.3 (53) 395.7 (64)
Points per possession (Rk) 3.51 (2) 1.58 (22) 2.51 (43) 1.99 (56)
Category Western Kentucky offense South Florida defense South Florida offense Western Kentucky defense
S&P+ (Rk) 42.8 (5) 24.1 (39) 30.6 (53) 25.8 (53)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 112.3 (26) 105.4 (49) 114.9 (19) 103.9 (55)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 141.0 (4) 105.8 (47) 105.8 (49) 95.6 (80)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 127.8 (2) 103.8 (48) 111.0 (32) 102.3 (55)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 145.1 (5) 107.6 (47) 99.9 (68) 95.7 (82)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 124.6 (12) 117.3 (30) 103.2 (67) 125.9 (14)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 141.5 (3) 117.5 (24) 108.1 (49) 99.5 (77)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 121.5 (22) 92.3 (92) 120.3 (24) 102.1 (66)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 119.6 (15) 106.7 (48) 105.8 (52) 84.5 (118)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Western Kentucky

  1. Third Down S&P+ (No. 4 offense vs. No. 76 defense)
  2. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 4 offense vs. No. 65 defense)
  3. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 36 offense vs. No. 93 defense)
  4. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 5 offense vs. No. 61 defense)
  5. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 1 offense vs. No. 57 defense)

South Florida

  1. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 42 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
  2. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 79 offense vs. No. 115 defense)
  3. Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 34 offense vs. No. 70 defense)
  4. Rushing S&P+ (No. 19 offense vs. No. 55 defense)
  5. Field Position (No. 24 offense vs. No. 58 defense)
Five Factors
Category Western Kentucky offense South Florida defense South Florida offense Western Kentucky defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.40 (11) 1.25 (66) 1.36 (20) 1.29 (87)
EFFICIENCY 52.7% (1) 37.9% (34) 44.0% (38) 40.3% (61)
FIELD POSITION 31.8 (33) 30.3 (79) 32.2 (24) 29.3 (58)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.5 (9) 3.7 (6) 4.9 (53) 4.3 (38)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Western Kentucky 9.44 (6)
South Florida 6.08 (21)
ACTUAL
Western Kentucky 16 (3)
South Florida 8 (18)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Western Kentucky offense South Florida offense
Adj. Pace -1.0 (68) -1.3 (71)
Plays per game 74.4 (59) 70.4 (92)
Possessions per game 12.6 (92) 13.3 (47)
Std. Downs Run Rate 46.7% (123) 72.5% (12)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 17.6% (127) 47.3% (10)
% of solo tackles 76.7% (47) 84.3% (9)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Western Kentucky defense South Florida defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 57.1% (98) 64.6% (26)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 37.3% (30) 33.3% (71)
Overall Havoc Rate 17.4% (39) 17.9% (33)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 10.1% (50) 10.2% (48)
DB Havoc Rate 7.2% (30) 7.7% (20)
PD to INC 34.7% (48) 29.1% (95)

When Western Kentucky has the ball…

Standard Downs
Western Kentucky Offense South Florida Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 127.8 2 103.8 48 Western Kentucky
Standard Downs Success Rate 56.8 1 44.2 49 Western Kentucky
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.23 13 1.10 32 Western Kentucky
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.19 23 2.57 26
SD Sack Rate 1.1% 5 8.3% 5
Passing Downs
Western Kentucky Offense South Florida Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 145.1 5 107.6 47 Western Kentucky
Passing Downs Success Rate 42.0 3 26.2 26 Western Kentucky
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.98 22 1.82 114 Western Kentucky big
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.76 104 2.82 33 South Florida big
PD Sack Rate 4.4% 16 8.2% 45 Western Kentucky

When South Florida has the ball…

Standard Downs
South Florida Offense Western Kentucky Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 111.0 32 102.3 55 South Florida
Standard Downs Success Rate 49.9 30 45.5 58 South Florida
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.22 19 1.02 65 South Florida
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.18 24 2.69 38 South Florida
SD Sack Rate 5.5% 79 2.8% 115 South Florida
Passing Downs
South Florida Offense Western Kentucky Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 99.9 68 95.7 82 South Florida
Passing Downs Success Rate 30.5 65 30.7 67
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.90 32 1.95 82 South Florida
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.73 21 3.19 63 South Florida
PD Sack Rate 7.5% 70 5.6% 98 South Florida
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Western Kentucky Brandon Doughty 6'3, 220 SR 356 496 4594 45 7 71.8% 13 2.6% 8.8
Western Kentucky Nelson Fishback 6'2, 215 JR 7 8 70 0 0 87.5% 0 0.0% 8.8
Western Kentucky Drew Eckels 6'4, 210 FR 1 1 10 0 0 100.0% 1 50.0% 2.5
South Florida Quinton Flowers 6'0, 210 SO 148 243 2017 21 8 60.9% 19 7.3% 7.4
South Florida Steven Bench 6'2, 215 SR 14 22 177 2 1 63.6% 1 4.3% 7.6
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Western Kentucky D'Andre Ferby RB 6'1, 240 FR 151 604 11 4.0 3.3 32.5%
Western Kentucky Anthony Wales RB 5'10, 195 JR 141 986 7 7.0 5.0 55.3%
Western Kentucky Darmontre Warr RB 5'9, 195 JR 35 124 2 3.5 2.0 40.0%
Western Kentucky Leon Allen RB 6'0, 235 SR 27 137 2 5.1 4.6 48.1%
South Florida Marlon Mack RB 6'0, 205 SO 193 1273 8 6.6 6.7 44.6%
South Florida Quinton Flowers QB 6'0, 210 SO 157 969 10 6.2 5.9 44.6%
South Florida Darius Tice RB 5'10, 206 JR 83 448 4 5.4 4.9 42.2%
South Florida D'Ernest Johnson RB 5'10, 208 SO 69 290 1 4.2 3.1 37.7%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Western Kentucky Taywan Taylor WR 6'1, 195 JR 105 79 1363 17 17.3 13.0 75.2%
Western Kentucky Jared Dangerfield WR 6'3, 215 SR 104 76 752 7 9.9 7.2 73.1%
Western Kentucky Nicholas Norris WR 5'9, 175 JR 82 58 851 4 14.7 10.4 70.7%
Western Kentucky Antwane Grant WR 6'1, 205 SR 75 48 620 7 12.9 8.3 64.0%
Western Kentucky Tyler Higbee TE 6'6, 250 SR 49 38 563 8 14.8 11.5 77.6%
Western Kentucky Anthony Wales RB 5'10, 195 JR 25 22 176 2 8.0 7.0 88.0%
Western Kentucky Nacarius Fant WR 5'9, 185 SO 15 12 147 0 12.3 9.8 80.0%
South Florida Rodney Adams WR 6'1, 190 JR 61 38 686 8 18.1 11.3 62.3%
South Florida Chris Barr WR 5'10, 175 FR 39 23 200 1 8.7 5.1 59.0%
South Florida Ryeshene Bronson WR 6'3, 200 SO 32 15 228 1 15.2 7.1 46.9%
South Florida D'Ernest Johnson RB 5'10, 208 SO 31 25 346 4 13.8 11.2 80.6%
South Florida Sean Price TE 6'3, 252 SR 27 20 306 5 15.3 11.3 74.1%
South Florida Marlon Mack RB 6'0, 205 SO 19 16 111 1 6.9 5.8 84.2%
South Florida Elkanah Dillon TE 6'5, 245 FR 14 7 160 2 22.9 11.4 50.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Western Kentucky TJ McCollum LB 6'3, 230 SO 81.5 11.0% 11.5 3.0 1 2 1 0
Western Kentucky Branden Leston DB 6'3, 205 JR 78.0 10.5% 3.0 0.0 1 3 0 1
Western Kentucky Nick Holt LB 6'1, 230 SR 67.0 9.0% 7.5 4.0 3 4 2 0
Western Kentucky Dejon Brown LB 6'3, 250 SR 47.5 6.4% 7.0 2.0 0 2 2 1
Western Kentucky Marcus Ward DB 6'3, 210 JR 44.5 6.0% 7.5 2.0 1 6 2 0
Western Kentucky Derik Overstreet DL 6'2, 250 SO 36.0 4.9% 7.0 2.0 0 1 1 0
Western Kentucky Prince Charles Iworah DB 5'11, 190 SR 35.5 4.8% 1.0 0.0 4 10 0 0
Western Kentucky Joe Brown DB 5'10, 190 SO 30.5 4.1% 1.5 0.0 1 9 0 0
Western Kentucky Gavin Rocker DL 6'2, 255 SR 28.0 3.8% 6.0 2.5 0 1 0 0
Western Kentucky Wonderful Terry DB 5'10, 190 SR 27.5 3.7% 1.0 0.0 2 5 1 0
Western Kentucky Jontavius Morris DL 6'2, 305 SR 24.5 3.3% 5.0 2.0 0 3 0 0
Western Kentucky Omarius Bryant DL 6'3, 310 JR 20.0 2.7% 3.5 1.5 0 0 0 0
Western Kentucky Nick Newton LB 6'4, 245 SR 17.5 2.4% 2.5 1.0 1 1 1 0
South Florida Auggie Sanchez LB 6'2, 244 SO 83.5 11.8% 8.5 0.5 0 1 0 0
South Florida Jamie Byrd DB 5'11, 185 SR 67.5 9.5% 10.0 5.0 3 4 2 0
South Florida Deatrick Nichols CB 5'10, 189 SO 51.0 7.2% 8.5 1.0 4 4 2 0
South Florida Nate Godwin DB 5'10, 204 JR 50.0 7.1% 1.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
South Florida Devin Abraham S 5'9, 186 SO 39.0 5.5% 2.0 1.0 3 3 0 0
South Florida Eric Lee DE 6'3, 260 SR 37.5 5.3% 11.0 4.0 0 4 2 0
South Florida Deadrin Senat DT 6'1, 305 SO 36.0 5.1% 5.5 0.0 0 0 1 0
South Florida Nigel Harris LB 6'0, 231 JR 33.5 4.7% 4.5 1.5 0 0 1 0
South Florida Tajee Fullwood CB 6'2, 203 SO 33.0 4.7% 1.0 0.0 0 2 2 0
South Florida Tashon Whitehurst LB 6'3, 220 SR 29.0 4.1% 1.5 1.5 0 0 0 0
South Florida James Hamilton DT 6'2, 308 SR 23.0 3.2% 5.5 3.0 0 0 0 0
South Florida Johnny Ward DB 6'0, 178 JR 23.0 3.2% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
South Florida Zack Bullock LB 6'3, 245 SR 22.0 3.1% 4.5 1.0 0 2 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Western Kentucky Jake Collins 6'0, 190 FR 31 41.6 1 5 10 48.4%
Western Kentucky Joseph Occhipinti 6'3, 190 JR 15 37.9 1 2 3 33.3%
South Florida Mattias Ciabatti 6'0, 200 SR 57 43.2 4 12 13 43.9%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Western Kentucky Ryan Nuss 5'10, 190 FR 64 57.2 8 12.5% 0 1 1 1
Western Kentucky Jake Collins 6'0, 190 FR 37 56.1 2 5.4% 0 0 0 0
South Florida Michael Hill 5'9, 180 SR 55 55.4 2 3.6% 0 2 0 0
South Florida Emilio Nadelman 5'6, 173 SO 20 56.7 5 25.0% 0 2 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Western Kentucky Garrett Schwettman 5'11, 175 SR 73-74 14-15 93.3%
South Florida Emilio Nadelman 5'6, 173 SO 48-49 15-21 71.4%
South Florida Michael Hill 5'9, 180 SR 1-1 0-0 #DIV/0!
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Western Kentucky Kylen Towner 5'8, 175 SO 27 24.6 1 0 1 (1)
Western Kentucky Anthony Davis 5'9, 205 SR 4 12.0 0 0 1 (1)
South Florida D'Ernest Johnson 5'10, 208 SO 16 29.1 0 0 0 (0)
South Florida Rodney Adams 6'1, 190 JR 15 30.5 1 0 1 (1)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Western Kentucky Kylen Towner 5'8, 175 SO 14 7.1 0 21 3 (3)
Western Kentucky Nacarius Fant 5'9, 185 SO 2 0.0 0 3 0 (0)
South Florida Tajee Fullwood 6'2, 203 SO 16 12.3 0 25 2 (0)
South Florida Jordan Reed 5'10, 170 FR 1 6.0 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics

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