2015 Miami Beach Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: South Florida vs. Western Kentucky


Joshua Lindsey-USA TODAY Sports
December 21 ( 2:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Marlins Park, Miami
Spread: Western Kentucky -3.5
S&P+ Projection: Western Kentucky 36.1, South Florida 25.6
Team Sites: Underdog Dynasty (WKU), Underdog Dynasty (USF)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Western Kentucky | South Florida | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 11 | 49 | ||
| Category | Western Kentucky offense | South Florida defense | South Florida offense | Western Kentucky defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.98 (2) | 4.80 (29) | 5.88 (34) | 5.44 (79) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 518.9 (9) | 360.5 (41) | 414.3 (53) | 395.7 (64) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.51 (2) | 1.58 (22) | 2.51 (43) | 1.99 (56) |
| Category | Western Kentucky offense | South Florida defense | South Florida offense | Western Kentucky defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 42.8 (5) | 24.1 (39) | 30.6 (53) | 25.8 (53) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 112.3 (26) | 105.4 (49) | 114.9 (19) | 103.9 (55) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 141.0 (4) | 105.8 (47) | 105.8 (49) | 95.6 (80) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 127.8 (2) | 103.8 (48) | 111.0 (32) | 102.3 (55) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 145.1 (5) | 107.6 (47) | 99.9 (68) | 95.7 (82) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 124.6 (12) | 117.3 (30) | 103.2 (67) | 125.9 (14) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 141.5 (3) | 117.5 (24) | 108.1 (49) | 99.5 (77) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 121.5 (22) | 92.3 (92) | 120.3 (24) | 102.1 (66) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 119.6 (15) | 106.7 (48) | 105.8 (52) | 84.5 (118) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Western Kentucky
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 4 offense vs. No. 76 defense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 4 offense vs. No. 65 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 36 offense vs. No. 93 defense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 5 offense vs. No. 61 defense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 1 offense vs. No. 57 defense)
South Florida
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 42 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 79 offense vs. No. 115 defense)
- Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 34 offense vs. No. 70 defense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 19 offense vs. No. 55 defense)
- Field Position (No. 24 offense vs. No. 58 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Western Kentucky offense | South Florida defense | South Florida offense | Western Kentucky defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.40 (11) | 1.25 (66) | 1.36 (20) | 1.29 (87) |
| EFFICIENCY | 52.7% (1) | 37.9% (34) | 44.0% (38) | 40.3% (61) |
| FIELD POSITION | 31.8 (33) | 30.3 (79) | 32.2 (24) | 29.3 (58) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.5 (9) | 3.7 (6) | 4.9 (53) | 4.3 (38) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Western Kentucky 9.44 (6) South Florida 6.08 (21) | ACTUAL Western Kentucky 16 (3) South Florida 8 (18) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Western Kentucky offense | South Florida offense |
| Adj. Pace | -1.0 (68) | -1.3 (71) |
| Plays per game | 74.4 (59) | 70.4 (92) |
| Possessions per game | 12.6 (92) | 13.3 (47) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 46.7% (123) | 72.5% (12) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 17.6% (127) | 47.3% (10) |
| % of solo tackles | 76.7% (47) | 84.3% (9) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Western Kentucky defense | South Florida defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 57.1% (98) | 64.6% (26) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 37.3% (30) | 33.3% (71) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 17.4% (39) | 17.9% (33) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.1% (50) | 10.2% (48) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.2% (30) | 7.7% (20) |
| PD to INC | 34.7% (48) | 29.1% (95) |
When Western Kentucky has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Western Kentucky Offense | South Florida Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 127.8 | 2 | 103.8 | 48 | Western Kentucky |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 56.8 | 1 | 44.2 | 49 | Western Kentucky |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.23 | 13 | 1.10 | 32 | Western Kentucky |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.19 | 23 | 2.57 | 26 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 1.1% | 5 | 8.3% | 5 | |
Passing Downs
| Western Kentucky Offense | South Florida Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 145.1 | 5 | 107.6 | 47 | Western Kentucky |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 42.0 | 3 | 26.2 | 26 | Western Kentucky |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.98 | 22 | 1.82 | 114 | Western Kentucky big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.76 | 104 | 2.82 | 33 | South Florida big |
| PD Sack Rate | 4.4% | 16 | 8.2% | 45 | Western Kentucky |
When South Florida has the ball…
Standard Downs
| South Florida Offense | Western Kentucky Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 111.0 | 32 | 102.3 | 55 | South Florida |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 49.9 | 30 | 45.5 | 58 | South Florida |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.22 | 19 | 1.02 | 65 | South Florida |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.18 | 24 | 2.69 | 38 | South Florida |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.5% | 79 | 2.8% | 115 | South Florida |
Passing Downs
| South Florida Offense | Western Kentucky Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 99.9 | 68 | 95.7 | 82 | South Florida |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.5 | 65 | 30.7 | 67 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.90 | 32 | 1.95 | 82 | South Florida |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.73 | 21 | 3.19 | 63 | South Florida |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.5% | 70 | 5.6% | 98 | South Florida |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Western Kentucky | Brandon Doughty | 6'3, 220 | SR | 356 | 496 | 4594 | 45 | 7 | 71.8% | 13 | 2.6% | 8.8 |
| Western Kentucky | Nelson Fishback | 6'2, 215 | JR | 7 | 8 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 87.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 8.8 |
| Western Kentucky | Drew Eckels | 6'4, 210 | FR | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 50.0% | 2.5 |
| South Florida | Quinton Flowers | 6'0, 210 | SO | 148 | 243 | 2017 | 21 | 8 | 60.9% | 19 | 7.3% | 7.4 |
| South Florida | Steven Bench | 6'2, 215 | SR | 14 | 22 | 177 | 2 | 1 | 63.6% | 1 | 4.3% | 7.6 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Western Kentucky | D'Andre Ferby | RB | 6'1, 240 | FR | 151 | 604 | 11 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 32.5% |
| Western Kentucky | Anthony Wales | RB | 5'10, 195 | JR | 141 | 986 | 7 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 55.3% |
| Western Kentucky | Darmontre Warr | RB | 5'9, 195 | JR | 35 | 124 | 2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 40.0% |
| Western Kentucky | Leon Allen | RB | 6'0, 235 | SR | 27 | 137 | 2 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 48.1% |
| South Florida | Marlon Mack | RB | 6'0, 205 | SO | 193 | 1273 | 8 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 44.6% |
| South Florida | Quinton Flowers | QB | 6'0, 210 | SO | 157 | 969 | 10 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 44.6% |
| South Florida | Darius Tice | RB | 5'10, 206 | JR | 83 | 448 | 4 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 42.2% |
| South Florida | D'Ernest Johnson | RB | 5'10, 208 | SO | 69 | 290 | 1 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 37.7% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Western Kentucky | Taywan Taylor | WR | 6'1, 195 | JR | 105 | 79 | 1363 | 17 | 17.3 | 13.0 | 75.2% |
| Western Kentucky | Jared Dangerfield | WR | 6'3, 215 | SR | 104 | 76 | 752 | 7 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 73.1% |
| Western Kentucky | Nicholas Norris | WR | 5'9, 175 | JR | 82 | 58 | 851 | 4 | 14.7 | 10.4 | 70.7% |
| Western Kentucky | Antwane Grant | WR | 6'1, 205 | SR | 75 | 48 | 620 | 7 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 64.0% |
| Western Kentucky | Tyler Higbee | TE | 6'6, 250 | SR | 49 | 38 | 563 | 8 | 14.8 | 11.5 | 77.6% |
| Western Kentucky | Anthony Wales | RB | 5'10, 195 | JR | 25 | 22 | 176 | 2 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 88.0% |
| Western Kentucky | Nacarius Fant | WR | 5'9, 185 | SO | 15 | 12 | 147 | 0 | 12.3 | 9.8 | 80.0% |
| South Florida | Rodney Adams | WR | 6'1, 190 | JR | 61 | 38 | 686 | 8 | 18.1 | 11.3 | 62.3% |
| South Florida | Chris Barr | WR | 5'10, 175 | FR | 39 | 23 | 200 | 1 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 59.0% |
| South Florida | Ryeshene Bronson | WR | 6'3, 200 | SO | 32 | 15 | 228 | 1 | 15.2 | 7.1 | 46.9% |
| South Florida | D'Ernest Johnson | RB | 5'10, 208 | SO | 31 | 25 | 346 | 4 | 13.8 | 11.2 | 80.6% |
| South Florida | Sean Price | TE | 6'3, 252 | SR | 27 | 20 | 306 | 5 | 15.3 | 11.3 | 74.1% |
| South Florida | Marlon Mack | RB | 6'0, 205 | SO | 19 | 16 | 111 | 1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 84.2% |
| South Florida | Elkanah Dillon | TE | 6'5, 245 | FR | 14 | 7 | 160 | 2 | 22.9 | 11.4 | 50.0% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Western Kentucky | TJ McCollum | LB | 6'3, 230 | SO | 81.5 | 11.0% | 11.5 | 3.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Western Kentucky | Branden Leston | DB | 6'3, 205 | JR | 78.0 | 10.5% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Western Kentucky | Nick Holt | LB | 6'1, 230 | SR | 67.0 | 9.0% | 7.5 | 4.0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Western Kentucky | Dejon Brown | LB | 6'3, 250 | SR | 47.5 | 6.4% | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Western Kentucky | Marcus Ward | DB | 6'3, 210 | JR | 44.5 | 6.0% | 7.5 | 2.0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Western Kentucky | Derik Overstreet | DL | 6'2, 250 | SO | 36.0 | 4.9% | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Western Kentucky | Prince Charles Iworah | DB | 5'11, 190 | SR | 35.5 | 4.8% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Kentucky | Joe Brown | DB | 5'10, 190 | SO | 30.5 | 4.1% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Kentucky | Gavin Rocker | DL | 6'2, 255 | SR | 28.0 | 3.8% | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Kentucky | Wonderful Terry | DB | 5'10, 190 | SR | 27.5 | 3.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Western Kentucky | Jontavius Morris | DL | 6'2, 305 | SR | 24.5 | 3.3% | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Kentucky | Omarius Bryant | DL | 6'3, 310 | JR | 20.0 | 2.7% | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Kentucky | Nick Newton | LB | 6'4, 245 | SR | 17.5 | 2.4% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| South Florida | Auggie Sanchez | LB | 6'2, 244 | SO | 83.5 | 11.8% | 8.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| South Florida | Jamie Byrd | DB | 5'11, 185 | SR | 67.5 | 9.5% | 10.0 | 5.0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| South Florida | Deatrick Nichols | CB | 5'10, 189 | SO | 51.0 | 7.2% | 8.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| South Florida | Nate Godwin | DB | 5'10, 204 | JR | 50.0 | 7.1% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| South Florida | Devin Abraham | S | 5'9, 186 | SO | 39.0 | 5.5% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| South Florida | Eric Lee | DE | 6'3, 260 | SR | 37.5 | 5.3% | 11.0 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| South Florida | Deadrin Senat | DT | 6'1, 305 | SO | 36.0 | 5.1% | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| South Florida | Nigel Harris | LB | 6'0, 231 | JR | 33.5 | 4.7% | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| South Florida | Tajee Fullwood | CB | 6'2, 203 | SO | 33.0 | 4.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| South Florida | Tashon Whitehurst | LB | 6'3, 220 | SR | 29.0 | 4.1% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| South Florida | James Hamilton | DT | 6'2, 308 | SR | 23.0 | 3.2% | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| South Florida | Johnny Ward | DB | 6'0, 178 | JR | 23.0 | 3.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| South Florida | Zack Bullock | LB | 6'3, 245 | SR | 22.0 | 3.1% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Western Kentucky | Jake Collins | 6'0, 190 | FR | 31 | 41.6 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 48.4% |
| Western Kentucky | Joseph Occhipinti | 6'3, 190 | JR | 15 | 37.9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 33.3% |
| South Florida | Mattias Ciabatti | 6'0, 200 | SR | 57 | 43.2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 43.9% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Western Kentucky | Ryan Nuss | 5'10, 190 | FR | 64 | 57.2 | 8 | 12.5% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Western Kentucky | Jake Collins | 6'0, 190 | FR | 37 | 56.1 | 2 | 5.4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| South Florida | Michael Hill | 5'9, 180 | SR | 55 | 55.4 | 2 | 3.6% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| South Florida | Emilio Nadelman | 5'6, 173 | SO | 20 | 56.7 | 5 | 25.0% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Western Kentucky | Garrett Schwettman | 5'11, 175 | SR | 73-74 | 14-15 | 93.3% |
| South Florida | Emilio Nadelman | 5'6, 173 | SO | 48-49 | 15-21 | 71.4% |
| South Florida | Michael Hill | 5'9, 180 | SR | 1-1 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Western Kentucky | Kylen Towner | 5'8, 175 | SO | 27 | 24.6 | 1 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| Western Kentucky | Anthony Davis | 5'9, 205 | SR | 4 | 12.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| South Florida | D'Ernest Johnson | 5'10, 208 | SO | 16 | 29.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| South Florida | Rodney Adams | 6'1, 190 | JR | 15 | 30.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Western Kentucky | Kylen Towner | 5'8, 175 | SO | 14 | 7.1 | 0 | 21 | 3 (3) |
| Western Kentucky | Nacarius Fant | 5'9, 185 | SO | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 (0) |
| South Florida | Tajee Fullwood | 6'2, 203 | SO | 16 | 12.3 | 0 | 25 | 2 (0) |
| South Florida | Jordan Reed | 5'10, 170 | FR | 1 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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