2015 Poinsettia Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Northern Illinois vs. Boise State
December 23 ( 4:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego
Spread: Boise State -8
S&P+ Projection: Boise State 27.8, Northern Illinois 26.2
Team Sites: One Bronco Nation Under God, Hustle Belt (NIU)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Boise State | Northern Illinois | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 59 | 63 | ||
| Category | Boise State offense | Northern Illinois defense | Northern Illinois offense | Boise State defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.88 (35) | 4.80 (30) | 5.34 (70) | 4.93 (36) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 502.7 (15) | 398.5 (67) | 419.5 (46) | 340.3 (22) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.60 (35) | 1.76 (37) | 2.34 (56) | 1.52 (20) |
| Category | Boise State offense | Northern Illinois defense | Northern Illinois offense | Boise State defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 30.1 (57) | 24.7 (42) | 27.7 (77) | 25.5 (51) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 99.8 (76) | 101.7 (64) | 96.2 (93) | 118.8 (15) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 98.2 (75) | 101.3 (62) | 105.0 (52) | 102.4 (58) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 101.1 (65) | 98.5 (71) | 97.4 (84) | 114.4 (21) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 96.6 (83) | 110.3 (34) | 100.2 (65) | 92.7 (91) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 103.6 (66) | 104.3 (44) | 96.6 (89) | 133.5 (8) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 97.2 (84) | 108.5 (52) | 93.9 (96) | 95.2 (83) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 111.8 (40) | 90.3 (102) | 106.4 (55) | 133.1 (10) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 103.8 (64) | 130.1 (7) | 110.8 (36) | 103.9 (54) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Boise State
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 21 offense vs. No. 121 defense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 6 defense vs. No. 87 offense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 15 defense vs. No. 93 offense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 9 defense vs. No. 85 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 8 defense vs. No. 83 offense)
Northern Illinois
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 23 defense vs. No. 96 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 37 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
- Q4 S&P+ (No. 5 vs. No. 60 )
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 34 defense vs. No. 83 offense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 37 defense vs. No. 84 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Boise State offense | Northern Illinois defense | Northern Illinois offense | Boise State defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.29 (50) | 1.16 (21) | 1.24 (77) | 1.56 (126) |
| EFFICIENCY | 43.6% (44) | 40.5% (64) | 41.0% (76) | 33.2% (8) |
| FIELD POSITION | 31.9 (30) | 31.7 (105) | 31.8 (32) | 27.4 (21) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.4 (88) | 3.8 (12) | 5.0 (40) | 4.6 (57) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Boise State 2.50 (47) Northern Illinois 1.58 (57) | ACTUAL Boise State 8 (18) Northern Illinois 3 (47) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Boise State offense | Northern Illinois offense |
| Adj. Pace | 9.1 (9) | 6.0 (17) |
| Plays per game | 85.5 (6) | 78.5 (31) |
| Possessions per game | 14.5 (9) | 14.1 (19) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 53.6% (98) | 66.8% (27) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 21.4% (122) | 39.4% (31) |
| % of solo tackles | 78.3% (40) | 79.8% (29) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Boise State defense | Northern Illinois defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 57.7% (90) | 57.6% (92) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 35.6% (48) | 37.1% (32) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 21.3% (4) | 15.0% (85) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 8.5% (91) | 7.6% (105) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 9.8% (1) | 7.3% (29) |
| PD to INC | 40.1% (12) | 38.5% (20) |
When Boise State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Boise State Offense | Northern Illinois Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 101.1 | 65 | 98.5 | 71 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.3 | 43 | 46.2 | 65 | Boise State |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.20 | 26 | 1.29 | 25 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.72 | 93 | 3.02 | 88 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.7% | 82 | 3.5% | 106 | Boise State |
Passing Downs
| Boise State Offense | Northern Illinois Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 96.6 | 83 | 110.3 | 34 | Northern Illinois |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.9 | 44 | 28.3 | 41 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.59 | 104 | 2.14 | 43 | Northern Illinois big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.15 | 76 | 3.38 | 82 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.4% | 31 | 6.2% | 85 | Boise State big |
When Northern Illinois has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Northern Illinois Offense | Boise State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 97.4 | 84 | 114.4 | 21 | Boise State big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 46.0 | 71 | 36.3 | 4 | Boise State big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.08 | 73 | 1.01 | 119 | Northern Illinois |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.63 | 108 | 2.11 | 3 | Boise State big |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.2% | 73 | 7.1% | 14 | Boise State big |
Passing Downs
| Northern Illinois Offense | Boise State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 100.2 | 65 | 92.7 | 91 | Northern Illinois |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 29.5 | 73 | 27.9 | 38 | Boise State |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.79 | 60 | 1.68 | 125 | Northern Illinois big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.22 | 67 | 3.22 | 64 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.8% | 37 | 5.7% | 95 | Northern Illinois big |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Boise State | Brett Rypien | 6'2, 199 | FR | 243 | 389 | 2973 | 17 | 7 | 62.5% | 18 | 4.4% | 7.0 |
| Boise State | Ryan Finley | 6'4, 200 | SO | 46 | 70 | 485 | 1 | 4 | 65.7% | 6 | 7.9% | 6.0 |
| Boise State | Thomas Stuart | 5'11, 196 | SO | 12 | 18 | 114 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | 5 | 21.7% | 3.4 |
| Northern Illinois | Drew Hare | 6'1, 218 | JR | 164 | 257 | 1962 | 14 | 4 | 63.8% | 15 | 5.5% | 6.9 |
| Northern Illinois | Ryan Graham | 6'1, 214 | FR | 48 | 81 | 653 | 6 | 3 | 59.3% | 8 | 9.0% | 6.6 |
| Northern Illinois | Tommy Fiedler | 6'2, 192 | FR | 21 | 45 | 265 | 2 | 3 | 46.7% | 4 | 8.2% | 5.1 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Boise State | Jeremy McNichols | RB | 5'9, 205 | SO | 221 | 1244 | 18 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 34.4% |
| Boise State | Kelsey Young | RB | 5'10, 198 | SR | 91 | 457 | 7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 35.2% |
| Boise State | Devan Demas | RB | 5'8, 175 | JR | 29 | 171 | 2 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 48.3% |
| Boise State | Brett Rypien | QB | 6'2, 199 | FR | 21 | 50 | 1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 23.8% |
| Northern Illinois | Joel Bouagnon | TB | 6'2, 226 | JR | 275 | 1270 | 18 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 33.8% |
| Northern Illinois | Drew Hare | QB | 6'1, 218 | JR | 89 | 332 | 1 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 38.2% |
| Northern Illinois | Jordan Huff | TB | 5'11, 218 | SO | 81 | 640 | 8 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 43.2% |
| Northern Illinois | Ryan Graham | QB | 6'1, 214 | FR | 51 | 223 | 0 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 37.3% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Boise State | Thomas Sperbeck | WR | 6'0, 175 | JR | 130 | 83 | 1353 | 8 | 16.3 | 10.4 | 63.8% |
| Boise State | Chaz Anderson | WR | 5'10, 186 | JR | 74 | 38 | 535 | 2 | 14.1 | 7.2 | 51.4% |
| Boise State | Shane Williams-Rhodes | WR | 5'6, 173 | SR | 74 | 54 | 427 | 0 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 73.0% |
| Boise State | Jeremy McNichols | RB | 5'9, 205 | SO | 52 | 46 | 364 | 5 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 88.5% |
| Boise State | Jake Roh | TE | 6'3, 229 | SO | 42 | 29 | 319 | 1 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 69.0% |
| Boise State | Holden Huff | TE | 6'6, 226 | SR | 34 | 17 | 236 | 3 | 13.9 | 6.9 | 50.0% |
| Boise State | A.J. Richardson | WR | 6'0, 205 | FR | 17 | 10 | 113 | 0 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 58.8% |
| Northern Illinois | Kenny Golladay | WR | 6'4, 200 | JR | 118 | 71 | 1122 | 10 | 15.8 | 9.5 | 60.2% |
| Northern Illinois | Tommylee Lewis | WR | 5'7, 168 | SR | 53 | 33 | 387 | 3 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 62.3% |
| Northern Illinois | Aregeros Turner | WR | 5'11, 178 | JR | 52 | 39 | 343 | 1 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 75.0% |
| Northern Illinois | Juwan Brescacin | WR | 6'4, 230 | SR | 42 | 21 | 286 | 1 | 13.6 | 6.8 | 50.0% |
| Northern Illinois | Desroy Maxwell | TE | 6'2, 255 | SR | 27 | 19 | 213 | 3 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 70.4% |
| Northern Illinois | Chad Beebe | WR | 5'9, 184 | JR | 22 | 13 | 193 | 0 | 14.9 | 8.8 | 59.1% |
| Northern Illinois | Joel Bouagnon | TB | 6'2, 226 | JR | 17 | 13 | 131 | 0 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 76.5% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Boise State | Darian Thompson | S | 6'2, 212 | SR | 49.0 | 8.0% | 7.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Boise State | Ben Weaver | WLB | 6'0, 228 | JR | 49.0 | 8.0% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Boise State | Tanner Vallejo | MLB | 6'1, 230 | JR | 44.5 | 7.3% | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Boise State | Chanceller James | S | 6'2, 216 | JR | 39.5 | 6.5% | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Boise State | Tyler Gray | WLB | 6'4, 232 | SR | 35.5 | 5.8% | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Boise State | Joe Martarano | MLB | 6'3, 228 | SO | 32.5 | 5.3% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boise State | Jonathan Moxey | CB | 5'10, 188 | JR | 32.0 | 5.2% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Boise State | Donte Deayon | CB | 5'9, 155 | SR | 29.5 | 4.8% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Boise State | Kamalei Correa | DL | 6'3, 248 | JR | 27.5 | 4.5% | 8.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Boise State | Tyler Horn | DT | 6'5, 268 | SR | 27.0 | 4.4% | 6.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Boise State | Mercy Maston | CB | 5'11, 208 | SR | 22.0 | 3.6% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Boise State | Kameron Miles | S | 6'1, 215 | SO | 21.5 | 3.5% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Boise State | Armand Nance | DT | 6'0, 306 | SR | 18.5 | 3.0% | 7.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Boomer Mays | LB | 6'0, 244 | SR | 88.0 | 10.9% | 5.0 | 0.5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Marlon Moore | S | 5'9, 197 | SR | 79.0 | 9.7% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Brandon Mayes | S | 5'11, 193 | SO | 69.0 | 8.5% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Sean Folliard | LB | 6'2, 231 | JR | 63.0 | 7.8% | 8.5 | 1.0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Renard Cheren | LB | 6'0, 224 | FR | 49.5 | 6.1% | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Bobby Jones IV | LB | 6'0, 222 | SO | 42.5 | 5.2% | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Paris Logan | CB | 5'9, 195 | SR | 42.5 | 5.2% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Shawun Lurry | CB | 5'8, 178 | SO | 36.0 | 4.4% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Jamaal Payton | LB | 6'0, 226 | JR | 32.5 | 4.0% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Perez Ford | DE | 6'0, 227 | SR | 31.5 | 3.9% | 6.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Albert Smalls | CB | 6'1, 197 | SO | 31.5 | 3.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Cameron Clinton-Earl | DE | 6'1, 258 | SR | 29.0 | 3.6% | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Ladell Fleming | DE | 6'0, 236 | JR | 23.0 | 2.8% | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Boise State | Sean Wale | 6'2, 185 | JR | 52 | 42.3 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 78.8% |
| Northern Illinois | Jacob Ambrose | 5'10, 175 | JR | 65 | 37.8 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 58.5% |
| Northern Illinois | Ryan Graham | 6'1, 214 | FR | 4 | 34.0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25.0% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Boise State | Tyler Rausa | 5'9, 183 | JR | 85 | 62.7 | 51 | 60.0% | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Christian Hagan | 6'0, 189 | SO | 51 | 59.2 | 12 | 23.5% | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Northern Illinois | Josh Orne | 6'0, 218 | JR | 30 | 53.7 | 3 | 10.0% | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Boise State | Tyler Rausa | 5'9, 183 | JR | 52-54 | 23-28 | 82.1% |
| Northern Illinois | Christian Hagan | 6'0, 189 | SO | 51-53 | 14-18 | 77.8% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Boise State | Terrell Johnson | 5'9, 173 | SR | 19 | 23.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Boise State | Jeremy McNichols | 5'9, 205 | SO | 5 | 17.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Northern Illinois | Aregeros Turner | 5'11, 178 | JR | 40 | 25.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Northern Illinois | D.J. Brown | 5'9, 182 | FR | 3 | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Boise State | Donte Deayon | 5'9, 155 | SR | 13 | 3.8 | 0 | 16 | 0 (0) |
| Boise State | Shane Williams-Rhodes | 5'6, 173 | SR | 8 | 8.9 | 0 | 7 | 1 (0) |
| Northern Illinois | Chad Beebe | 5'9, 184 | JR | 14 | 8.5 | 0 | 17 | 2 (1) |
| Northern Illinois | Tommylee Lewis | 5'7, 168 | SR | 3 | 5.3 | 0 | 4 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
See More:


















