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2015 Heart of Dallas Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Southern Miss vs. Washington

Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl

Washington Huskies (6-6) vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (9-4)

December 26 ( 2:20 PM ET, ESPN ), Cotton Bowl, Dallas
Spread: Washington -8.5
S&P+ Projection: Washington 31.8, Southern Miss 23.1
Team Sites: UW Dawg Pound, Underdog Dynasty (USM)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Washington Southern Miss
S&P+ (Rk) 20 56
Category Washington offense Southern Miss defense Southern Miss offense Washington defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.56 (53) 5.01 (40) 6.69 (8) 4.59 (16)
Yards per game (Rk) 379.2 (76) 370.3 (50) 515.2 (11) 343.8 (27)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.30 (64) 1.78 (41) 2.95 (15) 1.34 (11)
Category Washington offense Southern Miss defense Southern Miss offense Washington defense
S&P+ (Rk) 31.8 (46) 27.4 (62) 32.9 (41) 17.6 (10)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 104.8 (59) 102.5 (59) 106.5 (52) 117.3 (20)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 90.1 (97) 97.8 (75) 104.4 (55) 112.6 (25)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 97.7 (82) 101.6 (56) 102.0 (60) 116.2 (15)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 97.8 (78) 98.1 (78) 117.7 (30) 118.4 (20)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 91.5 (103) 103.4 (48) 96.9 (87) 119.9 (23)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 100.5 (71) 124.1 (15) 109.0 (46) 118.2 (21)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 121.3 (23) 92.0 (93) 108.2 (48) 118.3 (23)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 87.9 (110) 93.7 (93) 121.3 (11) 137.9 (3)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Washington

  1. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 27 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
  2. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 22 defense vs. No. 97 offense)
  3. Second Down S&P+ (No. 8 defense vs. No. 82 offense)
  4. Redzone S&P+ (No. 13 defense vs. No. 79 offense)
  5. Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 23 defense vs. No. 87 offense)

Southern Miss

  1. Redzone S&P+ (No. 24 defense vs. No. 112 offense)
  2. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 23 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
  3. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 26 defense vs. No. 95 offense)
  4. Run Stuffs (No. 10 defense vs. No. 71 offense)
  5. Third Down S&P+ (No. 35 defense vs. No. 92 offense)
Five Factors
Category Washington offense Southern Miss defense Southern Miss offense Washington defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.25 (71) 1.35 (105) 1.51 (1) 1.14 (17)
EFFICIENCY 42.1% (63) 37.1% (26) 43.4% (46) 39.8% (56)
FIELD POSITION 32.1 (26) 28.1 (33) 33.5 (10) 29.2 (56)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.8 (66) 4.2 (32) 5.2 (31) 3.3 (2)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Washington 3.87 (32)
Southern Miss -1.61 (87)
ACTUAL
Washington 6 (30)
Southern Miss -2 (80)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Washington offense Southern Miss offense
Adj. Pace -6.0 (117) 1.3 (46)
Plays per game 68.3 (108) 77.0 (40)
Possessions per game 12.8 (78) 13.8 (31)
Std. Downs Run Rate 53.7% (97) 52.8% (103)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 27.0% (101) 20.1% (124)
% of solo tackles 74.3% (73) 80.8% (21)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Washington defense Southern Miss defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 60.2% (60) 56.0% (104)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 30.8% (90) 29.8% (104)
Overall Havoc Rate 17.4% (40) 18.9% (23)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 10.5% (39) 12.1% (18)
DB Havoc Rate 6.8% (45) 6.7% (49)
PD to INC 32.2% (69) 33.3% (57)

When Washington has the ball…

Standard Downs
Washington Offense Southern Miss Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 97.7 82 101.6 56 Southern Miss
Standard Downs Success Rate 45.4 87 42.1 24 Southern Miss big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.12 57 0.98 91 Washington
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.89 69 2.66 35 Southern Miss
SD Sack Rate 6.2% 88 4.4% 89
Passing Downs
Washington Offense Southern Miss Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 97.8 78 98.1 78
Passing Downs Success Rate 34.8 31 28.5 43 Washington
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.62 98 1.79 93
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.33 52 2.86 38 Southern Miss
PD Sack Rate 10.7% 111 10% 23 Southern Miss big

When Southern Miss has the ball…

Standard Downs
Southern Miss Offense Washington Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 102.0 60 116.2 15 Washington
Standard Downs Success Rate 45.4 88 45.3 56 Washington
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.40 1 1.15 10
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.17 25 2.64 33
SD Sack Rate 3.5% 38 6.9% 19 Washington
Passing Downs
Southern Miss Offense Washington Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 117.7 30 118.4 20 Washington
Passing Downs Success Rate 38.8 11 27.2 32 Southern Miss
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.84 50 1.86 73 Southern Miss
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.16 74 3.56 101 Southern Miss
PD Sack Rate 6.2% 47 7.8% 54
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Washington Jake Browning 6'2, 206 FR 210 335 2671 16 10 62.7% 30 8.2% 6.8
Washington K.J. Carta-Samuels 6'2, 220 FR 10 24 124 0 1 41.7% 3 11.1% 3.4
Southern Miss Nick Mullens 6'1, 196 JR 306 483 4145 36 12 63.4% 20 4.0% 7.9
Southern Miss Tyler Matthews 6'4, 215 JR 5 7 112 1 0 71.4% 1 12.5% 12.9
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Washington Myles Gaskin TB 5'9, 192 FR 201 1121 10 5.6 6.2 39.3%
Washington Dwayne Washington TB 6'2, 226 JR 47 282 4 6.0 10.8 29.8%
Washington Jake Browning QB 6'2, 206 FR 30 200 1 6.7 4.5 53.3%
Washington Lavon Coleman TB 5'11, 222 SO 27 137 0 5.1 4.9 37.0%
Southern Miss Jalen Richard RB 5'8, 210 SR 185 1098 14 5.9 6.2 41.6%
Southern Miss Ito Smith RB 5'9, 195 SO 155 1088 8 7.0 9.8 37.4%
Southern Miss Justice Hayes RB 5'10, 194 SR 45 195 2 4.3 5.2 28.9%
Southern Miss Delaunte' Thornton RB 5'8, 205 FR 25 131 0 5.2 2.9 56.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Washington Jaydon Mickens WR 5'11, 170 SR 80 50 597 2 11.9 7.5 62.5%
Washington Joshua Perkins TE 6'4, 226 SR 56 33 470 3 14.2 8.4 58.9%
Washington Dante Pettis WR 6'0, 185 SO 54 28 384 1 13.7 7.1 51.9%
Washington Brayden Lenius WR 6'5, 220 SO 35 26 307 3 11.8 8.8 74.3%
Washington Dwayne Washington TB 6'2, 226 JR 30 25 315 3 12.6 10.5 83.3%
Washington Darrell Daniels TE 6'4, 241 JR 21 18 241 1 13.4 11.5 85.7%
Washington Isaiah Renfro WR 6'1, 207 FR 17 13 178 0 13.7 10.5 76.5%
Southern Miss Mike Thomas WR 6'1, 200 SR 98 62 1201 12 19.4 12.3 63.3%
Southern Miss Casey Martin WR 5'10, 180 SR 97 74 855 7 11.6 8.8 76.3%
Southern Miss D.J. Thompson WR 6'3, 200 JR 89 52 743 6 14.3 8.4 58.4%
Southern Miss Ito Smith RB 5'9, 195 SO 63 44 493 3 11.2 7.8 69.8%
Southern Miss Jalen Richard RB 5'8, 210 SR 34 31 295 2 9.5 8.7 91.2%
Southern Miss Taylor Marini TE 6'4, 237 SO 19 6 65 1 10.8 3.4 31.6%
Southern Miss Korey Robertson WR 6'1, 210 FR 17 14 200 3 14.3 11.8 82.4%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Washington Azeem Victor LB 6'3, 240 SO 71.5 10.3% 7.5 0.5 1 4 1 0
Washington Keishawn Bierria LB 6'1, 220 SO 59.0 8.5% 7.5 3.5 0 0 1 0
Washington Cory Littleton OLB 6'3, 227 SR 47.5 6.8% 11.0 6.0 0 1 0 0
Washington Brian Clay DB 6'1, 207 SR 47.0 6.8% 1.5 0.5 0 1 0 0
Washington Travis Feeney LB 6'4, 226 SR 45.5 6.5% 15.5 7.0 0 2 3 0
Washington Sidney Jones DB 6'0, 178 SO 34.5 5.0% 3.0 0.0 4 9 4 2
Washington Budda Baker DB 5'10, 178 SO 33.5 4.8% 1.5 0.0 2 6 0 0
Washington Kevin King DB 6'3, 183 JR 31.5 4.5% 4.5 0.0 3 5 1 0
Washington Darren Gardenhire DB 5'11, 185 SO 31.5 4.5% 0.0 0.0 2 5 0 1
Washington Taniela Tupou DL 6'2, 288 SR 30.5 4.4% 4.5 0.0 0 1 1 0
Washington JoJo McIntosh DB 6'0, 196 FR 28.5 4.1% 0.0 0.0 1 2 0 0
Washington Ben Burr-Kirven LB 6'0, 201 FR 26.5 3.8% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Washington Elijah Qualls DL 6'1, 311 SO 19.5 2.8% 3.5 3.5 0 0 0 0
Southern Miss D'Nerius Antoine LB 6'0, 215 JR 80.0 11.2% 7.5 1.5 2 4 4 0
Southern Miss Brian Anderson LB 5'10, 240 SR 62.5 8.8% 13.5 4.0 0 2 1 0
Southern Miss Picasso Nelson Jr. DB 5'10, 195 SO 46.5 6.5% 5.0 0.0 0 4 1 0
Southern Miss Kalan Reed DB 5'11, 195 SR 44.0 6.2% 4.0 0.0 4 17 1 1
Southern Miss Cornell Armstrong DB 5'11, 180 SO 42.0 5.9% 1.0 0.0 2 10 0 0
Southern Miss Dylan Bradley DL 6'1, 265 JR 34.0 4.8% 11.5 6.5 0 2 0 0
Southern Miss Elijah Parker LB 6'2, 220 JR 33.5 4.7% 6.5 1.0 0 3 2 0
Southern Miss Devonta Foster DB 6'0, 190 JR 29.5 4.1% 0.0 0.0 1 2 2 0
Southern Miss Terrick Wright LB 6'2, 225 SR 29.0 4.1% 2.5 0.0 1 0 1 1
Southern Miss Andrew Bolton DL 6'3, 304 SR 24.5 3.4% 3.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Southern Miss Anthony Swain LB 6'2, 250 SR 23.5 3.3% 1.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Southern Miss Darian Yancey LB 6'1, 250 FR 22.5 3.2% 6.0 1.5 1 0 0 0
Southern Miss Trae Collins DB 5'11, 184 SO 22.5 3.2% 0.0 0.0 0 2 1 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Washington Korey Durkee 6'4, 247 SR 45 43.0 7 14 14 62.2%
Washington Jake Browning 6'2, 206 FR 6 30.0 0 0 4 66.7%
Southern Miss Tyler Sarrazin 6'3, 204 JR 39 40.1 2 1 17 46.2%
Southern Miss Matthew Moseley 5'10, 163 SR 4 31.5 0 3 2 125.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Washington Tristan Vizcaino 6'2, 205 SO 67 62.3 23 34.3% 1 0 0 0
Washington Cameron Van Winkle 5'10, 184 JR 3 65.0 1 33.3% 0 0 0 0
Southern Miss Stephen Brauchle 6'1, 205 JR 91 59.4 14 15.4% 3 3 4 3
Southern Miss Parker Shaunfield 6'0, 170 FR 1 50.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Washington Cameron Van Winkle 5'10, 184 JR 44-44 13-17 76.5%
Washington Tristan Vizcaino 6'2, 205 SO 1-1 0-1 0.0%
Southern Miss Stephen Brauchle 6'1, 205 JR 44-48 10-13 76.9%
Southern Miss Parker Shaunfield 6'0, 170 FR 22-22 2-5 40.0%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Washington Chico McClatcher 5'7, 176 FR 23 23.4 0 0 0 (0)
Washington Deontae Cooper 5'11, 200 JR 3 13.0 0 1 0 (0)
Southern Miss Mike Thomas 6'1, 200 SR 13 21.3 0 0 0 (0)
Southern Miss Ito Smith 5'9, 195 SO 11 21.2 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Washington Dante Pettis 6'0, 185 SO 16 16.9 2 23 0 (0)
Washington Chico McClatcher 5'7, 176 FR 4 12.3 0 0 0 (0)
Southern Miss Jalen Richard 5'8, 210 SR 20 4.4 0 12 3 (2)
Southern Miss Casey Martin 5'10, 180 SR 5 4.4 0 8 1 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics

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