2015 Pinstripe Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Duke vs. Indiana
Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
December 26 ( 3:30 PM ET, ABC ), Yankee Stadium, New York City
Spread: Indiana -2.5
S&P+ Projection: Indiana 32.5, Duke 29.2
Team Sites: The Crimson Quarry, Duke Basketball Report
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Indiana | Duke | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 62 | 74 | ||
| Category | Indiana offense | Duke defense | Duke offense | Indiana defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.99 (32) | 5.09 (48) | 5.33 (72) | 6.32 (117) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 497.0 (17) | 375.8 (53) | 446.2 (34) | 516.8 (123) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.55 (40) | 1.82 (46) | 2.29 (65) | 2.65 (109) |
| Category | Indiana offense | Duke defense | Duke offense | Indiana defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 38.5 (20) | 24.8 (45) | 25.2 (91) | 34.8 (106) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 105.6 (56) | 108.1 (40) | 99.2 (78) | 90.6 (98) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 126.3 (11) | 88.4 (104) | 93.5 (89) | 91.9 (93) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 111.0 (33) | 98.7 (67) | 90.6 (108) | 91.9 (96) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 123.1 (18) | 95.1 (83) | 111.3 (42) | 89.8 (99) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 106.7 (54) | 102.2 (53) | 95.1 (94) | 90.4 (96) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 124.7 (13) | 110.4 (44) | 103.7 (65) | 80.4 (122) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 122.7 (19) | 87.0 (113) | 106.8 (54) | 114.3 (30) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 103.4 (66) | 106.9 (47) | 105.8 (49) | 86.3 (112) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Indiana
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 9 offense vs. No. 118 defense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 9 offense vs. No. 112 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 19 offense vs. No. 117 defense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 104 defense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 15 offense vs. No. 94 defense)
Duke
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 23 offense vs. No. 121 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 6 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
- Field Position (No. 10 defense vs. No. 83 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 6 offense vs. No. 74 defense)
- Q4 S&P+ (No. 44 vs. No. 103 )
Five Factors
| Category | Indiana offense | Duke defense | Duke offense | Indiana defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.33 (31) | 1.21 (43) | 1.19 (100) | 1.40 (113) |
| EFFICIENCY | 44.3% (34) | 38.3% (39) | 40.1% (86) | 43.8% (87) |
| FIELD POSITION | 29.3 (83) | 26.5 (10) | 32.6 (21) | 28.4 (42) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.0 (41) | 4.7 (69) | 4.4 (94) | 5.2 (109) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Indiana 7.23 (15) Duke -1.93 (88) | ACTUAL Indiana 8 (18) Duke -1 (72) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Indiana offense | Duke offense |
| Adj. Pace | 8.6 (10) | 6.7 (15) |
| Plays per game | 82.9 (12) | 83.8 (10) |
| Possessions per game | 14.2 (13) | 13.3 (47) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 63.4% (42) | 56.0% (87) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 38.3% (32) | 27.2% (99) |
| % of solo tackles | 74.4% (72) | 74.6% (68) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Indiana defense | Duke defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 51.3% (122) | 66.7% (14) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 27.7% (116) | 37.0% (35) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 16.5% (52) | 15.8% (62) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 11.5% (26) | 7.5% (109) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 4.8% (111) | 8.2% (15) |
| PD to INC | 32.5% (66) | 27.6% (107) |
When Indiana has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Indiana Offense | Duke Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 111.0 | 33 | 98.7 | 67 | Indiana |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.8 | 39 | 42.7 | 36 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.19 | 32 | 1.21 | 46 | Indiana |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.91 | 65 | 2.71 | 40 | Duke |
| SD Sack Rate | 1.7% | 10 | 4.9% | 71 | Indiana big |
Passing Downs
| Indiana Offense | Duke Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 123.1 | 18 | 95.1 | 83 | Indiana big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.0 | 36 | 29.4 | 54 | Indiana |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.79 | 62 | 1.90 | 40 | Duke |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.05 | 83 | 1.90 | 1 | Duke big |
| PD Sack Rate | 4.6% | 19 | 4% | 117 | Indiana big |
When Duke has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Duke Offense | Indiana Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 90.6 | 108 | 91.9 | 96 | Indiana |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 43.5 | 107 | 48.7 | 87 | Indiana |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.02 | 102 | 1.06 | 108 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.03 | 46 | 2.76 | 45 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 1.2% | 6 | 4.2% | 98 | Duke big |
Passing Downs
| Duke Offense | Indiana Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 111.3 | 42 | 89.8 | 99 | Duke big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.5 | 45 | 34.3 | 105 | Duke big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.72 | 82 | 1.68 | 103 | Duke |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.15 | 76 | 3.64 | 109 | Duke |
| PD Sack Rate | 4% | 11 | 7.4% | 61 | Duke |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Indiana | Nate Sudfeld | 6'6, 240 | SR | 219 | 361 | 3184 | 24 | 5 | 60.7% | 9 | 2.4% | 8.4 |
| Indiana | Zander Diamont | 6'1, 180 | SO | 15 | 31 | 166 | 0 | 0 | 48.4% | 3 | 8.8% | 4.4 |
| Indiana | Danny Cameron | 6'1, 208 | FR | 6 | 16 | 65 | 0 | 1 | 37.5% | 1 | 5.9% | 3.1 |
| Duke | Thomas Sirk | 6'4, 220 | JR | 234 | 390 | 2462 | 15 | 6 | 60.0% | 11 | 2.7% | 6.0 |
| Duke | Parker Boehme | 6'2, 220 | SO | 43 | 77 | 579 | 2 | 1 | 55.8% | 5 | 6.1% | 6.7 |
| Duke | Nicodem Pierre | 6'2, 210 | FR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Indiana | Jordan Howard | RB | 6'1, 230 | JR | 197 | 1213 | 9 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 47.2% |
| Indiana | Devine Redding | RB | 5'10, 202 | SO | 191 | 785 | 8 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 25.1% |
| Indiana | Mike Majette | ATH | 5'10, 201 | FR | 37 | 181 | 0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 37.8% |
| Indiana | Nate Sudfeld | QB | 6'6, 240 | SR | 34 | 105 | 5 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 29.4% |
| Duke | Thomas Sirk | QB | 6'4, 220 | JR | 133 | 701 | 6 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 45.1% |
| Duke | Shaquille Powell | RB | 5'10, 205 | SR | 122 | 534 | 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 32.0% |
| Duke | Shaun Wilson | RB | 5'9, 180 | SO | 75 | 321 | 2 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 26.7% |
| Duke | Jela Duncan | RB | 5'10, 210 | JR | 56 | 370 | 4 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 44.6% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Indiana | Simmie Cobbs, Jr. | WR | 6'4, 212 | SO | 98 | 54 | 914 | 4 | 16.9 | 9.3 | 55.1% |
| Indiana | Ricky Jones | WR | 5'10, 188 | JR | 88 | 50 | 817 | 5 | 16.3 | 9.3 | 56.8% |
| Indiana | Mitchell Paige | WR | 5'7, 176 | JR | 63 | 46 | 589 | 5 | 12.8 | 9.4 | 73.0% |
| Indiana | Anthony Corsaro | TE | 6'3, 250 | SR | 21 | 9 | 130 | 0 | 14.4 | 6.2 | 42.9% |
| Indiana | Michael Cooper | TE | 6'5, 260 | SR | 20 | 16 | 202 | 2 | 12.6 | 10.1 | 80.0% |
| Indiana | Damon Graham | WR | 5'10, 191 | SR | 18 | 10 | 102 | 0 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 55.6% |
| Indiana | Jordan Howard | RB | 6'1, 230 | JR | 16 | 11 | 106 | 1 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 68.8% |
| Duke | Max McCaffrey | WR | 6'2, 200 | SR | 74 | 48 | 601 | 5 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 64.9% |
| Duke | T.J. Rahming | WR | 5'10, 165 | FR | 73 | 40 | 522 | 2 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 54.8% |
| Duke | Johnell Barnes | WR | 6'0, 170 | JR | 62 | 34 | 411 | 2 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 54.8% |
| Duke | Anthony Nash | WR | 6'5, 200 | JR | 55 | 31 | 471 | 1 | 15.2 | 8.6 | 56.4% |
| Duke | Shaquille Powell | RB | 5'10, 205 | SR | 41 | 32 | 195 | 2 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 78.0% |
| Duke | Braxton Deaver | TE | 6'5, 245 | SR | 33 | 19 | 168 | 1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 57.6% |
| Duke | Shaun Wilson | RB | 5'9, 180 | SO | 22 | 17 | 192 | 1 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 77.3% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Indiana | Marcus Oliver | LB | 6'1, 240 | SO | 81.5 | 11.4% | 6.5 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Indiana | Jonathan Crawford | ATH | 6'2, 190 | FR | 55.5 | 7.8% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Indiana | T.J. Simmons | LB | 6'0, 232 | JR | 51.5 | 7.2% | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiana | Chase Dutra | DB | 6'1, 206 | SO | 49.5 | 6.9% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Indiana | Rashard Fant | DB | 5'10, 177 | SO | 48.0 | 6.7% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiana | Tegray Scales | LB | 6'0, 227 | SO | 45.5 | 6.4% | 5.5 | 3.0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiana | Nick Mangieri | DL | 6'5, 275 | SR | 39.5 | 5.5% | 11.0 | 9.0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Indiana | Zack Shaw | LB | 6'3, 253 | SR | 39.0 | 5.5% | 10.5 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiana | Andre Brown Jr. | ATH | 6'0, 194 | FR | 31.0 | 4.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiana | Clyde Newton | LB | 6'1, 230 | JR | 28.0 | 3.9% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Indiana | Darius Latham | DL | 6'5, 300 | JR | 21.5 | 3.0% | 10.0 | 4.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiana | Dawson Fletcher | LB | 6'0, 218 | JR | 21.0 | 2.9% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiana | Tony Fields | DB | 5'11, 203 | SO | 14.5 | 2.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke | Dwayne Norman | LB | 6'1, 215 | SR | 80.5 | 11.8% | 8.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Duke | Jeremy Cash | S | 6'2, 210 | SR | 79.0 | 11.6% | 18.0 | 2.5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Duke | DeVon Edwards | S | 5'9, 180 | JR | 68.0 | 10.0% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke | Deondre Singleton | S | 5'11, 180 | JR | 52.5 | 7.7% | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Duke | Breon Borders | CB | 6'0, 175 | JR | 45.0 | 6.6% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke | Tinashe Bere | LB | 6'1, 230 | FR | 41.5 | 6.1% | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Duke | A.J. Wolf | DT | 6'4, 270 | JR | 34.0 | 5.0% | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke | Alonzo Saxton II | CB | 5'11, 180 | SO | 28.0 | 4.1% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Duke | Carlos Wray | DT | 6'2, 290 | SR | 27.0 | 4.0% | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke | Deion Williams | DE | 6'0, 230 | SR | 24.5 | 3.6% | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke | Zavier Carmichael | LB | 6'0, 220 | SO | 24.0 | 3.5% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Duke | Kyler Brown | DE | 6'4, 235 | SR | 22.0 | 3.2% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke | Mike Ramsay | DT | 6'2, 295 | SO | 18.0 | 2.6% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Indiana | Erich Toth | 6'3, 207 | SR | 58 | 41.7 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 50.0% |
| Duke | Will Monday | 6'4, 210 | SR | 60 | 43.6 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 65.0% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Indiana | Griffin Oakes | 5'10, 200 | SO | 83 | 63.8 | 51 | 61.4% | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Duke | Ross Martin | 5'10, 185 | SR | 68 | 59.4 | 21 | 30.9% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Duke | Will Kline | 6'1, 190 | SO | 2 | 40.0 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Indiana | Griffin Oakes | 5'10, 200 | SO | 48-52 | 22-25 | 88.0% |
| Duke | Ross Martin | 5'10, 185 | SR | 37-37 | 23-27 | 85.2% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Indiana | Damon Graham | 5'10, 191 | SR | 20 | 21.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| Indiana | Devonte Williams | 5'10, 180 | FR | 10 | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Duke | DeVon Edwards | 5'9, 180 | JR | 22 | 30.4 | 3 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Duke | Erich Schneider | 6'7, 240 | JR | 3 | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Indiana | Mitchell Paige | 5'7, 176 | JR | 17 | 11.7 | 2 | 21 | 0 (0) |
| Duke | Ryan Smith | 5'7, 165 | JR | 26 | 7.3 | 0 | 21 | 3 (2) |
| Duke | Johnell Barnes | 6'0, 170 | JR | 1 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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