2015 Independence Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Virginia Tech vs. Tulsa
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
December 26 ( 5:45 PM ET, ESPN ), Independence Stadium, Shreveport
Spread: Virginia Tech -13.5
S&P+ Projection: Virginia Tech 35.4, Tulsa 23.5
Team Sites: Underdog Dynasty (Tulsa), Gobbler Country
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Tulsa | Virginia Tech | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 95 | 57 | ||
| Category | Tulsa offense | Virginia Tech defense | Virginia Tech offense | Tulsa defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.84 (36) | 5.14 (51) | 4.88 (104) | 6.12 (112) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 508.8 (14) | 355.3 (36) | 367.1 (95) | 518.9 (124) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.49 (45) | 1.75 (35) | 2.10 (77) | 2.60 (106) |
| Category | Tulsa offense | Virginia Tech defense | Virginia Tech offense | Tulsa defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 31.0 (51) | 22.0 (28) | 27.4 (81) | 37.4 (115) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 93.4 (103) | 112.1 (32) | 98.0 (84) | 83.7 (119) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 101.8 (65) | 105.3 (50) | 98.2 (74) | 87.1 (108) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 100.3 (71) | 111.8 (31) | 95.5 (91) | 87.4 (118) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 94.0 (89) | 105.8 (55) | 103.7 (54) | 83.0 (113) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 94.2 (98) | 98.5 (68) | 93.0 (101) | 87.6 (108) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 101.3 (68) | 144.2 (4) | 106.4 (54) | 94.2 (87) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 101.7 (72) | 106.4 (52) | 100.1 (79) | 77.4 (126) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 115.1 (21) | 110.5 (36) | 106.4 (47) | 85.2 (116) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Tulsa
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 42 offense vs. No. 62 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 66 offense vs. No. 83 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 95 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 55 offense vs. No. 68 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 18 defense vs. No. 28 offense)
Virginia Tech
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 8 defense vs. No. 109 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 8 defense vs. No. 98 offense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 17 defense vs. No. 106 offense)
- Field Position (No. 16 offense vs. No. 104 defense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 6 defense vs. No. 94 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Tulsa offense | Virginia Tech defense | Virginia Tech offense | Tulsa defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.35 (24) | 1.42 (117) | 1.15 (116) | 1.33 (99) |
| EFFICIENCY | 40.1% (87) | 34.6% (15) | 40.7% (80) | 46.1% (107) |
| FIELD POSITION | 29.0 (92) | 29.9 (68) | 32.8 (16) | 31.4 (104) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.0 (45) | 4.3 (40) | 4.5 (85) | 4.8 (79) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Tulsa -2.13 (90) Virginia Tech 8.53 (8) | ACTUAL Tulsa 2 (52) Virginia Tech 6 (30) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Tulsa offense | Virginia Tech offense |
| Adj. Pace | 11.4 (2) | 0.4 (56) |
| Plays per game | 87.2 (1) | 75.3 (50) |
| Possessions per game | 14.4 (10) | 13.8 (25) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 61.8% (51) | 61.6% (55) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 32.7% (63) | 36.0% (44) |
| % of solo tackles | 70.4% (97) | 63.1% (123) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Tulsa defense | Virginia Tech defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 63.2% (36) | 68.7% (6) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.8% (90) | 42.6% (5) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.2% (80) | 19.3% (18) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.8% (34) | 11.4% (27) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 4.3% (120) | 7.6% (22) |
| PD to INC | 32.5% (65) | 35.4% (40) |
When Tulsa has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Tulsa Offense | Virginia Tech Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 100.3 | 71 | 111.8 | 31 | Virginia Tech |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.7 | 81 | 38.3 | 7 | Virginia Tech big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.19 | 30 | 1.20 | 118 | Tulsa big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.94 | 60 | 2.65 | 34 | Virginia Tech |
| SD Sack Rate | 7.4% | 109 | 7.9% | 8 | Virginia Tech big |
Passing Downs
| Tulsa Offense | Virginia Tech Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 94.0 | 89 | 105.8 | 55 | Virginia Tech |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 28.2 | 86 | 28.5 | 45 | Virginia Tech |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.89 | 34 | 1.75 | 50 | Tulsa |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.25 | 62 | 3.14 | 55 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.3% | 66 | 6.4% | 83 | Tulsa |
When Virginia Tech has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Virginia Tech Offense | Tulsa Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 95.5 | 91 | 87.4 | 118 | Virginia Tech |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.7 | 82 | 51.3 | 110 | Virginia Tech |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.00 | 109 | 1.29 | 103 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.78 | 82 | 3.15 | 101 | Virginia Tech |
| SD Sack Rate | 7.7% | 111 | 4.3% | 95 | Tulsa |
Passing Downs
| Virginia Tech Offense | Tulsa Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 103.7 | 54 | 83.0 | 113 | Virginia Tech big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.0 | 70 | 34.6 | 108 | Virginia Tech |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.63 | 97 | 1.70 | 62 | Tulsa |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.52 | 35 | 3.15 | 56 | Virginia Tech |
| PD Sack Rate | 10.6% | 107 | 5.6% | 98 | |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Tulsa | Dane Evans | 6'1, 218 | JR | 278 | 441 | 3958 | 22 | 8 | 63.0% | 35 | 7.4% | 7.8 |
| Tulsa | Chad President | 6'3, 206 | FR | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 25.0% | -5.3 |
| Tulsa | ||||||||||||
| Virginia Tech | Michael Brewer | 6'1, 198 | SR | 103 | 179 | 1359 | 12 | 6 | 57.5% | 18 | 9.1% | 6.1 |
| Virginia Tech | Brenden Motley | 6'3, 221 | JR | 92 | 163 | 1155 | 11 | 7 | 56.4% | 16 | 8.9% | 5.8 |
| Virginia Tech | Dwayne Lawson | 6'6, 222 | FR | 3 | 9 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 33.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 5.7 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Tulsa | Zack Langer | RB | 6'0, 220 | SR | 193 | 714 | 17 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 31.6% |
| Tulsa | D'Angelo Brewer | RB | 5'9, 185 | SO | 148 | 732 | 4 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 41.2% |
| Tulsa | Ramadi Warren | RB | 5'9, 205 | FR | 67 | 467 | 6 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 43.3% |
| Tulsa | Dane Evans | QB | 6'1, 218 | JR | 49 | 208 | 1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 42.9% |
| Virginia Tech | Travon McMillian | TB | 6'0, 196 | FR | 184 | 961 | 5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 40.8% |
| Virginia Tech | Brenden Motley | QB | 6'3, 221 | JR | 73 | 340 | 3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 45.2% |
| Virginia Tech | Sam Rogers | FB | 5'10, 223 | JR | 56 | 227 | 1 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 33.9% |
| Virginia Tech | Trey Edmunds | TB | 6'2, 223 | JR | 45 | 174 | 2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 28.9% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Tulsa | Keyarris Garrett | WR | 6'4, 221 | SR | 148 | 88 | 1451 | 7 | 16.5 | 9.8 | 59.5% |
| Tulsa | Joshua Atkinson | WR | 6'2, 208 | JR | 93 | 65 | 932 | 4 | 14.3 | 10.0 | 69.9% |
| Tulsa | Conner Floyd | WR | 6'0, 210 | SR | 69 | 44 | 438 | 3 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 63.8% |
| Tulsa | Justin Hobbs | WR | 6'4, 207 | FR | 47 | 29 | 516 | 2 | 17.8 | 11.0 | 61.7% |
| Tulsa | Keevan Lucas | WR | 5'10, 198 | JR | 41 | 26 | 409 | 5 | 15.7 | 10.0 | 63.4% |
| Tulsa | D'Angelo Brewer | RB | 5'9, 185 | SO | 16 | 14 | 103 | 1 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 87.5% |
| Tulsa | Mandel Dixon | TE | 6'2, 240 | SR | 6 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 50.0% |
| Virginia Tech | Isaiah Ford | WR | 6'2, 187 | SO | 111 | 63 | 937 | 10 | 14.9 | 8.4 | 56.8% |
| Virginia Tech | Cam Phillips | WR | 6'1, 191 | SO | 68 | 46 | 549 | 2 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 67.6% |
| Virginia Tech | Bucky Hodges | TE | 6'7, 242 | SO | 61 | 36 | 492 | 6 | 13.7 | 8.1 | 59.0% |
| Virginia Tech | Ryan Malleck | TE | 6'5, 252 | SR | 28 | 20 | 277 | 2 | 13.9 | 9.9 | 71.4% |
| Virginia Tech | Sam Rogers | FB | 5'10, 224 | JR | 23 | 14 | 170 | 2 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 60.9% |
| Virginia Tech | Travon McMillian | TB | 6'0, 196 | FR | 17 | 12 | 64 | 1 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 70.6% |
| Virginia Tech | Kevin Asante | WR | 6'0, 182 | SR | 4 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 13.0 | 3.3 | 25.0% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Tulsa | Michael Mudoh | S | 5'10, 205 | SR | 99.0 | 13.1% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Tulsa | Matt Linscott | LB | 6'1, 220 | JR | 75.5 | 10.0% | 16.0 | 5.0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Tulsa | Trent Martin | LB | 6'2, 230 | JR | 73.5 | 9.7% | 14.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Tulsa | Jeremy Brady | S | 5'10, 197 | JR | 53.5 | 7.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tulsa | Kerwin Thomas | CB | 5'10, 171 | SO | 47.0 | 6.2% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Tulsa | Craig Suits | LB | 6'0, 220 | SO | 35.0 | 4.6% | 5.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tulsa | Derrick Luetjen | DT | 6'3, 291 | SR | 34.5 | 4.6% | 8.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tulsa | Jordan Mitchell | S | 6'2, 180 | SO | 30.5 | 4.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tulsa | Jeremy Smith | DE | 6'5, 250 | SO | 29.5 | 3.9% | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tulsa | Derrick Alexander | DE | 6'2, 284 | SR | 26.0 | 3.4% | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tulsa | Darrell Williams | CB | 5'10, 197 | SR | 26.0 | 3.4% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Tulsa | Will Barrow | CB | 5'9, 172 | JR | 22.5 | 3.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tulsa | Jesse Brubaker | DT | 6'3, 285 | SO | 20.5 | 2.7% | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | Chuck Clark | CB | 6'1, 205 | JR | 79.5 | 13.4% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| Virginia Tech | Deon Clarke | LB | 6'1, 227 | SR | 60.0 | 10.1% | 10.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | Andrew Motuapuaka | LB | 6'0, 238 | SO | 52.5 | 8.9% | 10.0 | 3.0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Virginia Tech | Adonis Alexander | ROV | 6'3, 192 | FR | 42.5 | 7.2% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | Luther Maddy | DT | 6'2, 286 | SR | 35.0 | 5.9% | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | Dadi Lhomme Nicolas | DE | 6'3, 227 | SR | 29.5 | 5.0% | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | Ken Ekanem | DE | 6'3, 249 | JR | 25.5 | 4.3% | 7.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | Terrell Edmunds | ROV | 6'1, 201 | FR | 24.0 | 4.1% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Virginia Tech | Desmond Frye | FS | 6'2, 200 | JR | 23.0 | 3.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | Woody Baron | DT | 6'1, 275 | JR | 22.0 | 3.7% | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | Brandon Facyson | CB | 6'2, 196 | SO | 21.5 | 3.6% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | Ronny Vandyke | OLB | 6'5, 215 | SR | 20.0 | 3.4% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | Donovan Riley | FS | 5'11, 211 | SR | 19.5 | 3.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Tulsa | Dalton Parks | 6'3, 209 | JR | 63 | 41.0 | 5 | 32 | 18 | 79.4% |
| Virginia Tech | A.J. Hughes | 6'0, 200 | SR | 66 | 43.0 | 9 | 18 | 21 | 59.1% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Tulsa | Preston Soper | 6'0, 205 | SO | 77 | 60.1 | 12 | 15.6% | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Virginia Tech | Joey Slye | 6'1, 214 | SO | 62 | 63.7 | 41 | 66.1% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | Michael Santamaria | 5'8, 168 | FR | 2 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Tulsa | Redford Jones | 5'10, 174 | SO | 53-54 | 16-24 | 66.7% |
| Virginia Tech | Joey Slye | 6'1, 214 | SO | 34-35 | 21-28 | 75.0% |
| Virginia Tech | Michael Santamaria | 5'8, 168 | FR | 3-3 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Tulsa | Bishop Louie | 5'10, 170 | SO | 19 | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Tulsa | Ramadi Warren | 5'9, 205 | FR | 12 | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 (1) |
| Virginia Tech | Der'Woun Greene | 5'11, 186 | JR | 14 | 25.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Virginia Tech | J.C. Coleman | 5'6, 192 | SR | 6 | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Tulsa | Conner Floyd | 6'0, 210 | SR | 7 | 15.9 | 0 | 18 | 0 (0) |
| Tulsa | Bishop Louie | 5'10, 170 | SO | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| Virginia Tech | Greg Stroman | 6'1, 173 | SO | 27 | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 (0) |
| Virginia Tech | Terrell Edmunds | 6'1, 201 | FR | 1 | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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