2015 Peach Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Florida State vs. Houston
December 31 ( 12:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Georgia Dome, Atlanta
Spread: Florida State -7
S&P+ Projection: Florida State 36.9, Houston 22.2
Team Sites: Underdog Dynasty (Houston), Tomahawk Nation
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Houston | Florida State | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 48 | 5 | ||
| Category | Houston offense | Florida State defense | Florida State offense | Houston defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.12 (28) | 4.55 (13) | 6.17 (23) | 5.21 (55) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 482.8 (20) | 326.6 (16) | 418.3 (49) | 375.2 (52) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.11 (10) | 1.28 (9) | 2.69 (29) | 1.50 (18) |
| Category | Houston offense | Florida State defense | Florida State offense | Houston defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 34.4 (31) | 17.3 (9) | 38.7 (19) | 27.8 (68) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 108.2 (41) | 112.1 (33) | 124.6 (9) | 106.5 (43) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 106.0 (48) | 132.1 (5) | 114.2 (32) | 97.3 (76) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 103.3 (55) | 122.8 (5) | 109.6 (38) | 98.1 (75) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 114.2 (38) | 118.2 (21) | 142.6 (6) | 104.0 (61) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 105.5 (58) | 137.0 (6) | 127.6 (8) | 100.8 (58) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 104.2 (63) | 114.6 (29) | 123.6 (16) | 105.2 (62) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 112.2 (38) | 124.0 (15) | 129.3 (9) | 108.7 (41) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 101.4 (78) | 101.8 (65) | 123.0 (10) | 93.3 (95) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Houston
- Run Stuffs (No. 34 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 27 offense vs. No. 90 defense)
- Field Position (No. 8 defense vs. No. 71 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 49 offense vs. No. 93 defense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 18 offense vs. No. 37 defense)
Florida State
- First Down S&P+ (No. 15 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 18 offense vs. No. 93 defense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 2 offense vs. No. 74 defense)
- Q4 S&P+ (No. 19 vs. No. 91)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 12 defense vs. No. 75 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Houston offense | Florida State defense | Florida State offense | Houston defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.31 (38) | 1.10 (6) | 1.36 (21) | 1.23 (57) |
| EFFICIENCY | 44.9% (30) | 35.7% (18) | 44.1% (37) | 39.7% (54) |
| FIELD POSITION | 31.1 (39) | 25.8 (5) | 29.8 (71) | 26.2 (8) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.7 (1) | 4.5 (52) | 5.2 (32) | 4.0 (21) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Houston 8.65 (7) Florida State 4.32 (28) | ACTUAL Houston 17 (2) Florida State 4 (40) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Houston offense | Florida State offense |
| Adj. Pace | 6.8 (14) | -7.7 (123) |
| Plays per game | 78.9 (25) | 67.8 (113) |
| Possessions per game | 13.1 (68) | 12.0 (119) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 63.9% (37) | 58.3% (71) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 39.8% (29) | 24.9% (113) |
| % of solo tackles | 74.7% (67) | 76.6% (49) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Houston defense | Florida State defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 55.9% (105) | 59.1% (72) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 31.4% (81) | 31.4% (82) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 18.2% (32) | 15.5% (77) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 9.4% (67) | 9.2% (74) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 8.7% (9) | 6.2% (68) |
| PD to INC | 39.6% (13) | 29.5% (91) |
When Houston has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Houston Offense | Florida State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 103.3 | 55 | 122.8 | 5 | Florida State big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.4 | 40 | 40.7 | 16 | Florida State |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.17 | 38 | 1.07 | 19 | Florida State |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.96 | 57 | 3.15 | 101 | Houston |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.4% | 75 | 7.2% | 12 | Florida State big |
Passing Downs
| Houston Offense | Florida State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 114.2 | 38 | 118.2 | 21 | Florida State |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 36.1 | 23 | 26.1 | 24 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.79 | 61 | 1.70 | 3 | Florida State big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.64 | 27 | 3.17 | 60 | Houston |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.7% | 89 | 8.9% | 32 | Florida State big |
When Florida State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Florida State Offense | Houston Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 109.6 | 38 | 98.1 | 75 | Florida State |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.0 | 60 | 45.8 | 59 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.18 | 35 | 0.99 | 54 | Florida State |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.87 | 70 | 2.68 | 37 | Houston |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.2% | 52 | 6% | 34 | Houston |
Passing Downs
| Florida State Offense | Houston Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 142.6 | 6 | 104.0 | 61 | Florida State big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 38.4 | 12 | 28.4 | 42 | Florida State |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.81 | 53 | 1.42 | 49 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.18 | 72 | 2.74 | 22 | Houston big |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.6% | 71 | 5.5% | 102 | Florida State |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Houston | Greg Ward Jr. | 5'11, 185 | JR | 207 | 304 | 2590 | 16 | 5 | 68.1% | 23 | 7.0% | 7.5 |
| Houston | Kyle Postma | 6'3, 205 | SO | 41 | 66 | 450 | 3 | 1 | 62.1% | 3 | 4.3% | 6.4 |
| Houston | Adam Schulz | 6'2, 210 | SR | 7 | 13 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 53.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 9.9 |
| Florida State | Everett Golson | 6'0, 199 | SR | 147 | 219 | 1778 | 11 | 3 | 67.1% | 18 | 7.6% | 6.8 |
| Florida State | Sean Maguire | 6'3, 221 | JR | 90 | 145 | 1128 | 9 | 2 | 62.1% | 5 | 3.3% | 7.1 |
| Florida State | J.J. Cosentino | 6'4, 239 | FR | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 3.7 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Houston | Kenneth Farrow | RB | 5'10, 220 | SR | 183 | 949 | 12 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 34.4% |
| Houston | Greg Ward Jr. | QB | 5'11, 185 | JR | 155 | 1174 | 19 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 51.6% |
| Houston | Javin Webb | RB | 5'10, 190 | SO | 70 | 277 | 4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 30.0% |
| Houston | Ryan Jackson | RB | 5'10, 205 | SR | 68 | 353 | 3 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 38.2% |
| Florida State | Dalvin Cook | RB | 5'11, 202 | SO | 213 | 1650 | 18 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 44.1% |
| Florida State | Jacques Patrick | RB | 6'2, 235 | FR | 62 | 315 | 5 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 45.2% |
| Florida State | Mario Pender | RB | 5'10, 196 | JR | 30 | 140 | 1 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 33.3% |
| Florida State | Everett Golson | QB | 6'0, 199 | SR | 30 | 124 | 0 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 40.0% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Houston | Demarcus Ayers | WR | 5'11, 190 | JR | 118 | 89 | 1140 | 6 | 12.8 | 9.7 | 75.4% |
| Houston | Chance Allen | WR | 6'3, 215 | JR | 81 | 52 | 693 | 4 | 13.3 | 8.6 | 64.2% |
| Houston | Steven Dunbar | WR | 6'3, 210 | SO | 47 | 27 | 350 | 3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 57.4% |
| Houston | Linell Bonner | WR | 6'0, 200 | SO | 36 | 24 | 306 | 5 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 66.7% |
| Houston | Tyler McCloskey | TE | 6'2, 245 | JR | 22 | 13 | 151 | 1 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 59.1% |
| Houston | Kenneth Farrow | RB | 5'10, 220 | SR | 10 | 10 | 119 | 0 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 100.0% |
| Houston | Ryan Jackson | RB | 5'10, 205 | SR | 10 | 7 | 79 | 0 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 70.0% |
| Florida State | Travis Rudolph | WR | 6'1, 186 | SO | 78 | 52 | 715 | 6 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 66.7% |
| Florida State | Jesus Wilson | WR | 5'10, 185 | JR | 74 | 50 | 554 | 2 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 67.6% |
| Florida State | Kermit Whitfield | WR | 5'8, 184 | JR | 64 | 53 | 742 | 6 | 14.0 | 11.6 | 82.8% |
| Florida State | Dalvin Cook | RB | 5'11, 202 | SO | 31 | 22 | 218 | 1 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 71.0% |
| Florida State | Ryan Izzo | TE | 6'5, 241 | FR | 22 | 13 | 177 | 2 | 13.6 | 8.1 | 59.1% |
| Florida State | Ermon Lane | WR | 6'3, 205 | SO | 19 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 31.6% |
| Florida State | Mavin Saunders | TE | 6'5, 248 | FR | 11 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 54.5% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Houston | Elandon Roberts | ILB | 6'0, 235 | SR | 109.0 | 15.4% | 17.0 | 6.0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Houston | Steven Taylor | OLB | 6'1, 225 | JR | 72.0 | 10.2% | 16.0 | 9.0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Houston | Adrian McDonald | S | 5'11, 205 | SR | 70.0 | 9.9% | 3.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Houston | Trevon Stewart | S | 5'10, 195 | SR | 60.5 | 8.5% | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Houston | Brandon Wilson | CB | 5'11, 200 | JR | 52.0 | 7.3% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Houston | Lee Hightower | CB | 6'2, 200 | SR | 39.5 | 5.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Houston | Tyus Bowser | OLB | 6'3, 240 | JR | 37.0 | 5.2% | 6.0 | 5.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Houston | Matthew Adams | ILB | 6'1, 230 | SO | 35.0 | 4.9% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston | William Jackson III | CB | 6'2, 195 | SR | 29.5 | 4.2% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 1 |
| Houston | Cameron Malveaux | DE | 6'6, 270 | JR | 28.0 | 3.9% | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston | Tomme Mark | DT | 6'2, 305 | SR | 27.5 | 3.9% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston | Nick Thurman | DL | 6'4, 290 | SO | 20.0 | 2.8% | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston | B.J. Singleton | DT | 6'4, 305 | JR | 15.5 | 2.2% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida State | Reggie Northrup | LB | 6'1, 231 | SR | 64.0 | 10.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida State | Derwin James | DB | 6'3, 212 | FR | 60.0 | 9.6% | 7.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Florida State | Lamarcus Brutus | DB | 6'0, 207 | SR | 50.0 | 8.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida State | Terrance Smith | LB | 6'4, 230 | SR | 42.0 | 6.7% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Florida State | Ro'Derrick Hoskins | LB | 6'2, 238 | SO | 41.5 | 6.6% | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida State | Jalen Ramsey | DB | 6'1, 202 | JR | 37.0 | 5.9% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
| Florida State | DeMarcus Walker | DE | 6'3, 281 | JR | 34.0 | 5.4% | 15.5 | 10.5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Florida State | Derrick Nnadi | DT | 6'1, 301 | SO | 29.5 | 4.7% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida State | Josh Sweat | DE | 6'5, 237 | FR | 28.5 | 4.5% | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Florida State | Nile Lawrence-Stample | DT | 6'1, 302 | SR | 27.0 | 4.3% | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida State | Javien Elliott | DB | 5'11, 176 | SR | 26.5 | 4.2% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Florida State | Jacob Pugh | LB | 6'4, 239 | SO | 24.0 | 3.8% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida State | Marquez White | DB | 6'0, 184 | JR | 21.0 | 3.3% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Houston | Logan Piper | 6'0, 200 | SR | 57 | 40.2 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 64.9% |
| Florida State | Cason Beatty | 6'3, 214 | SR | 55 | 44.5 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 70.9% |
| Florida State | Jonathan Hernandez | 6'4, 216 | SO | 1 | 37.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Houston | Ty Cummings | 6'0, 185 | JR | 93 | 62.5 | 27 | 29.0% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida State | Roberto Aguayo | 6'1, 204 | JR | 79 | 62.9 | 43 | 54.4% | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Houston | Ty Cummings | 6'0, 185 | JR | 46-46 | 7-7 | 100.0% |
| Houston | Kyle Bullard | 6'1, 190 | SR | 23-23 | 5-9 | 55.6% |
| Florida State | Roberto Aguayo | 6'1, 204 | JR | 46-46 | 20-24 | 83.3% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Houston | Brandon Wilson | 5'11, 200 | JR | 23 | 26.6 | 2 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Houston | Javin Webb | 5'10, 190 | SO | 7 | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Florida State | Kermit Whitfield | 5'8, 184 | JR | 15 | 28.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| Florida State | Freddie Stevenson | 6'1, 241 | JR | 2 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Houston | Demarcus Ayers | 5'11, 190 | JR | 25 | 11.3 | 1 | 30 | 0 (0) |
| Houston | Joeal Williams | 5'10, 185 | FR | 1 | 12.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Florida State | Jesus Wilson | 5'10, 185 | JR | 24 | 4.7 | 0 | 22 | 0 (0) |
| Florida State | Nyqwan Murray | 5'11, 171 | FR | 3 | 3.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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