2016 Outback Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Tennessee vs. Northwestern
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
January 01 ( 12:00 PM ET, ESPN2 ), Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
Spread: Tennessee -8
S&P+ Projection: Tennessee 25.1, Northwestern 20.4
Team Sites: Inside NU, Rocky Top Talk
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Northwestern | Tennessee | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 45 | 24 | ||
| Category | Northwestern offense | Tennessee defense | Tennessee offense | Northwestern defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 4.32 (121) | 4.97 (37) | 5.37 (67) | 4.39 (8) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 329.8 (115) | 356.5 (38) | 422.1 (45) | 314.0 (13) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 1.54 (113) | 1.61 (26) | 2.64 (32) | 1.23 (5) |
| Category | Northwestern offense | Tennessee defense | Tennessee offense | Northwestern defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 21.9 (109) | 21.3 (25) | 33.1 (40) | 14.8 (4) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 94.7 (96) | 113.9 (25) | 115.8 (17) | 118.2 (16) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 82.9 (112) | 106.4 (43) | 114.2 (31) | 124.5 (13) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 88.7 (111) | 104.7 (46) | 109.6 (37) | 114.9 (17) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 88.1 (100) | 123.4 (15) | 126.5 (14) | 131.6 (8) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 89.4 (106) | 126.4 (12) | 138.4 (3) | 110.4 (35) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 87.3 (113) | 111.1 (40) | 103.1 (66) | 145.8 (3) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 93.7 (94) | 116.2 (26) | 110.8 (43) | 117.8 (24) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 84.8 (116) | 96.3 (80) | 102.2 (71) | 111.2 (34) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Northwestern
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 13 defense vs. No. 43 offense)
- Q2 S&P+ (No. 25 vs. No. 55 )
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 11 defense vs. No. 36 offense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 5 defense vs. No. 29 offense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 14 defense vs. No. 35 offense)
Tennessee
- Field Position (No. 2 defense vs. No. 109 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 14 defense vs. No. 109 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 21 defense vs. No. 110 offense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 28 defense vs. No. 113 offense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 16 defense vs. No. 101 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Northwestern offense | Tennessee defense | Tennessee offense | Northwestern defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.22 (87) | 1.27 (76) | 1.24 (78) | 1.15 (18) |
| EFFICIENCY | 34.6% (121) | 36.8% (21) | 42.6% (58) | 35.1% (16) |
| FIELD POSITION | 28.1 (109) | 25.1 (2) | 32.7 (20) | 30.3 (81) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.1 (112) | 4.6 (65) | 4.9 (52) | 3.4 (4) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Northwestern 4.92 (25) Tennessee 2.95 (41) | ACTUAL Northwestern 5 (33) Tennessee 3 (47) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Northwestern offense | Tennessee offense |
| Adj. Pace | 3.9 (29) | 5.9 (20) |
| Plays per game | 76.3 (46) | 78.6 (29) |
| Possessions per game | 13.4 (42) | 13.0 (70) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 69.8% (17) | 67.6% (24) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 46.1% (13) | 36.8% (40) |
| % of solo tackles | 72.0% (88) | 77.9% (42) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Northwestern defense | Tennessee defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 55.6% (108) | 57.0% (99) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 23.1% (127) | 35.2% (51) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 19.4% (16) | 16.5% (53) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 12.1% (19) | 9.0% (80) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.1% (35) | 7.3% (27) |
| PD to INC | 35.6% (38) | 30.8% (83) |
When Northwestern has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Northwestern Offense | Tennessee Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 88.7 | 111 | 104.7 | 46 | Tennessee big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 38.9 | 123 | 43.5 | 45 | Tennessee big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.08 | 76 | 0.92 | 81 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.73 | 91 | 2.83 | 58 | Tennessee |
| SD Sack Rate | 7.5% | 110 | 5.6% | 44 | Tennessee big |
Passing Downs
| Northwestern Offense | Tennessee Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 88.1 | 100 | 123.4 | 15 | Tennessee big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 26.0 | 104 | 24.4 | 17 | Tennessee big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.61 | 99 | 1.91 | 57 | Tennessee |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.93 | 95 | 3.32 | 74 | Tennessee |
| PD Sack Rate | 6.2% | 47 | 7.4% | 61 | Northwestern |
When Tennessee has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Tennessee Offense | Northwestern Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 109.6 | 37 | 114.9 | 17 | Northwestern |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 46.4 | 66 | 42.6 | 35 | Northwestern |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.06 | 85 | 1.14 | 2 | Northwestern big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.02 | 48 | 2.32 | 10 | Northwestern |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.6% | 59 | 5% | 66 | |
Passing Downs
| Tennessee Offense | Northwestern Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 126.5 | 14 | 131.6 | 8 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.5 | 34 | 22.0 | 5 | Northwestern |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.73 | 74 | 1.72 | 106 | Tennessee |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.03 | 85 | 3.53 | 97 | Tennessee |
| PD Sack Rate | 6.8% | 56 | 5.9% | 90 | Tennessee |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Northwestern | Clayton Thorson | 6'4, 220 | FR | 142 | 275 | 1465 | 7 | 7 | 51.6% | 18 | 6.1% | 4.6 |
| Northwestern | Zack Oliver | 6'4, 230 | SR | 17 | 40 | 195 | 1 | 2 | 42.5% | 6 | 13.0% | 3.5 |
| Northwestern | Matt Alviti | 6'0, 200 | SO | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33.3% | 1 | 25.0% | 1.3 |
| Tennessee | Joshua Dobbs | 6'3, 207 | JR | 191 | 319 | 2125 | 15 | 5 | 59.9% | 19 | 5.6% | 5.9 |
| Tennessee | Quinten Dormady | 6'4, 216 | FR | 11 | 18 | 181 | 1 | 0 | 61.1% | 2 | 10.0% | 8.7 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Northwestern | Justin Jackson | RB | 5'11, 190 | SO | 299 | 1344 | 4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 33.1% |
| Northwestern | Clayton Thorson | QB | 6'4, 220 | FR | 71 | 488 | 5 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 43.7% |
| Northwestern | Warren Long | RB | 6'0, 210 | JR | 56 | 321 | 5 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 33.9% |
| Northwestern | Solomon Vault | RB | 5'10, 190 | SO | 55 | 159 | 0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 30.9% |
| Tennessee | Jalen Hurd | RB | 6'4, 240 | SO | 255 | 1153 | 11 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 34.5% |
| Tennessee | Joshua Dobbs | QB | 6'3, 207 | JR | 118 | 769 | 9 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 44.9% |
| Tennessee | Alvin Kamara | RB | 5'10, 215 | SO | 96 | 645 | 6 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 52.1% |
| Tennessee | John Kelly | RB | 5'9, 212 | FR | 36 | 161 | 0 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 38.9% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Northwestern | Dan Vitale | SB | 6'2, 235 | SR | 62 | 33 | 355 | 4 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 53.2% |
| Northwestern | Christian Jones | WR | 6'3, 235 | SR | 47 | 23 | 234 | 2 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 48.9% |
| Northwestern | Mike McHugh | WR | 6'3, 195 | JR | 32 | 16 | 160 | 0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 50.0% |
| Northwestern | Miles Shuler | WR | 5'10, 180 | SR | 26 | 13 | 132 | 0 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 50.0% |
| Northwestern | Justin Jackson | RB | 5'11, 190 | SO | 25 | 19 | 147 | 0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 76.0% |
| Northwestern | Austin Carr | WR | 6'1, 195 | JR | 21 | 14 | 276 | 2 | 19.7 | 13.1 | 66.7% |
| Northwestern | Garrett Dickerson | SB | 6'3, 245 | SO | 20 | 11 | 113 | 0 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 55.0% |
| Tennessee | Von Pearson | WR | 6'0, 183 | SR | 52 | 36 | 377 | 3 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 69.2% |
| Tennessee | Josh Malone | WR | 6'3, 197 | SO | 49 | 29 | 388 | 2 | 13.4 | 7.9 | 59.2% |
| Tennessee | Alvin Kamara | RB | 5'10, 215 | SO | 42 | 31 | 272 | 3 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 73.8% |
| Tennessee | Josh Smith | WR | 6'1, 216 | SO | 41 | 23 | 307 | 2 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 56.1% |
| Tennessee | Ethan Wolf | TE | 6'6, 245 | SO | 29 | 21 | 277 | 2 | 13.2 | 9.6 | 72.4% |
| Tennessee | Jalen Hurd | RB | 6'4, 240 | SO | 29 | 21 | 190 | 2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 72.4% |
| Tennessee | Jauan Jennings | WR | 6'3, 201 | FR | 19 | 13 | 142 | 0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 68.4% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Northwestern | Anthony Walker | LB | 6'1, 235 | SO | 85.5 | 13.6% | 19.5 | 3.0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Northwestern | Godwin Igwebuike | S | 6'0, 200 | SO | 58.0 | 9.3% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Northwestern | Traveon Henry | S | 6'1, 215 | SR | 49.0 | 7.8% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Northwestern | Drew Smith | LB | 6'1, 230 | SR | 43.0 | 6.9% | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Northwestern | Matthew Harris | CB | 5'11, 180 | JR | 37.5 | 6.0% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
| Northwestern | Dean Lowry | DL | 6'6, 290 | SR | 36.5 | 5.8% | 13.5 | 3.0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| Northwestern | Nate Hall | LB | 6'2, 230 | FR | 36.0 | 5.7% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Northwestern | Jaylen Prater | LB | 6'0, 230 | JR | 35.5 | 5.7% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Northwestern | Nick VanHoose | CB | 6'0, 190 | SR | 34.5 | 5.5% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
| Northwestern | Keith Watkins II | CB | 5'11, 180 | SO | 32.5 | 5.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Northwestern | Deonte Gibson | DL | 6'3, 265 | SR | 28.0 | 4.5% | 12.5 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Northwestern | Tyler Lancaster | DL | 6'3, 300 | SO | 23.0 | 3.7% | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Northwestern | Ifeadi Odenigbo | DL | 6'3, 250 | JR | 14.5 | 2.3% | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Jalen Reeves-Maybin | LB | 6'0, 225 | JR | 80.5 | 13.0% | 13.0 | 5.0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Brian Randolph | DB | 6'0, 200 | SR | 58.5 | 9.4% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Derek Barnett | DE | 6'3, 257 | SO | 49.5 | 8.0% | 11.5 | 9.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Darrin Kirkland Jr. | LB | 6'1, 224 | FR | 49.0 | 7.9% | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Todd Kelly Jr. | DB | 5'11, 208 | SO | 36.5 | 5.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Corey Vereen | DL | 6'2, 249 | JR | 29.5 | 4.8% | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Cameron Sutton | DB | 5'11, 186 | JR | 27.5 | 4.4% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Tennessee | LaDarrell McNeil | DB | 6'1, 209 | SR | 26.0 | 4.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Emmanuel Moseley | DB | 5'11, 179 | SO | 24.5 | 4.0% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Owen Williams | DL | 6'0, 297 | SR | 23.0 | 3.7% | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Malik Foreman | DB | 5'10, 178 | JR | 22.5 | 3.6% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee | LaTroy Lewis | DL | 6'4, 256 | JR | 22.5 | 3.6% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Justin Martin | DB | 6'1, 183 | SO | 17.0 | 2.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Northwestern | Hunter Niswander | 6'5, 235 | SO | 78 | 38.3 | 2 | 29 | 20 | 62.8% |
| Tennessee | Trevor Daniel | 6'1, 248 | SO | 56 | 45.6 | 7 | 15 | 20 | 62.5% |
| Tennessee | Nate Renfro | 6'1, 205 | SR | 2 | 42.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Northwestern | Matt Micucci | 5'11, 185 | JR | 32 | 57.5 | 7 | 21.9% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Northwestern | Jack Mitchell | 6'3, 210 | JR | 24 | 61.0 | 11 | 45.8% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Aaron Medley | 6'2, 189 | SO | 81 | 61.5 | 32 | 39.5% | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Northwestern | Jack Mitchell | 6'3, 210 | JR | 25-27 | 18-26 | 69.2% |
| Northwestern | Arthur Omilian | 5'11, 180 | SR | 1-1 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Tennessee | Aaron Medley | 6'2, 189 | SO | 49-49 | 20-29 | 69.0% |
| Tennessee | George Bullock | 6'1, 213 | JR | 1-1 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Northwestern | Solomon Vault | 5'10, 190 | SO | 23 | 27.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Northwestern | Miles Shuler | 5'10, 180 | SR | 4 | 23.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Tennessee | Evan Berry | 5'11, 207 | SO | 21 | 38.3 | 3 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Tennessee | Micah Abernathy | 6'0, 193 | FR | 4 | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Northwestern | Miles Shuler | 5'10, 180 | SR | 11 | 10.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 (0) |
| Northwestern | Flynn Nagel | 5'11, 190 | FR | 2 | -1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) |
| Tennessee | Cameron Sutton | 5'11, 186 | JR | 25 | 18.7 | 2 | 13 | 1 (0) |
| Tennessee | Alvin Kamara | 5'10, 215 | SO | 6 | 16.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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