The big 2015 Troy football guide: A familiar face replaces a legend

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Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports likes to say that when it comes to setting preseason expectations, he wishes he could stop in to watch every team during spring football or fall camp because it gives you a much stronger impression of what each team has to offer.

At what point, then, do you figure a coach knows his team is going to stink? I didn’t think Larry Blakeney was going to have an amazing squad in 2014, but it looked athletic and reasonably experienced. The skill positions were loaded with interesting athletes, the offensive line returned five players with starting experience, and the defense returned every linebacker and cornerback and the leading pass rusher. There were holes, and Troy had been by no means incredible in 2013. Still, I thought a top-100 performance was a distinct possibility.

Maybe the 2014 recruiting class should have been a red flag. Of the 16 players in that cycle, 11 were JUCO transfers. That screams, “THERE ARE HOLES HERE.” Regardless, whenever Blakeney knew this team was going to crater, everybody else knew it by mid-September. Troy began with a 38-point loss to UAB, then lost to FCS newcomer Abilene Christian two weeks later. The week after that came a 66-0 loss to Georgia. And after an 0-5 start, Blakeney announced he would retire at the end of the year.

It feels like I wrote the same thing in each annual preview, but Blakeney damn near invented Troy football. He was the Trojans’ head coach for 24 years. When each member of his 2014 squad was born, each came into a world in which Blakeney was Troy’s head man. Blakeney presided over what is basically a story of real-life college football promotion and relegation. The Trojans won the Division II title, then moved up to what was then Division 1-AA (and is now FCS) after hiring Blakeney in 1991. They became a Southland Conference heavyweight, and after a few years of 1-AA playoff appearances, they moved up to what is now FBS.

And after nearly a quarter of a century, he’s passed the baton.

One day, someone’s going to write a book about the journey of the spread offense in modern college football, and it’s going to be awesome.

It will feature a good amount about one of the modern spread’s first major potholes. Following the 2007 season, Auburn head coach Tommy Tuberville attempted to liven up his offense by bringing aboard Troy offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. With Franklin’s version of the spread under development, the Trojans had surged from 98th in Off. S&P+ in 2006 to 54th in 2007. Imagine what he could do with Auburn’s athletes!

Be it because of Tuberville, his assistants, or pressure from outside forces, Franklin never had a chance to succeed; his 2008 Auburn offense was a no-identity mix of about four identities and crumbled to 111th in Off. S&P+.

Back in Troy, Blakeney had handed the reins to 27-year-old receivers coach Neal Brown. The Trojans held steady in 2008, then surged to 21st in Off. S&P+ in 2009. Consequently, Brown was hired away by ... Tuberville at Texas Tech.

After three years at Tech (all with top-40 S&P+ offenses) and two more at Kentucky, where he inherited a bottom-30 offense and improved it to average or mediocre, Brown was chosen to replace Blakeney. He is a descendent of spread godfather Hal Mumme (he played for Mumme at Kentucky in the late-1990s), and he’s somehow just 34 years old. One never knows how a coach will handle the move from successful coordinator to head coach, but he’s already lived an extensive coaching life, and he was in Troy for Blakeney’s most sustained period of FBS success: Troy won at least eight games each year Brown was an assistant.

Blakeney’s announced retirement relaxed the Trojans. Or it energized them. Regardless, after the horrific start, there were hints of quality. They smoked New Mexico State in the first post-announcement contest, and after a few late-October duds, November was a successful month.

Really, by going with a freshman quarterback, Blakeney might have assured a “slow start, solid finish” season. Brandon Silvers won the job as a redshirt freshman, and it took him a while to find the balance between throwing easy passes and actually gaining yards.

The offense took off late, and a defense that featured a rebuilt line began slowing opponents down. Troy lost Blakeney’s final game, but the season still finished better than it started.

By this point, we know what Brown wants to do on offense: spread defenses out and throw, throw, throw.

His offenses had different personalities at each step, based on some combination of personnel and head coach preferences. But he is a hardcore pass-to-set-up-the-run adherent.

Based on the personnel he inherits at Troy, that probably isn’t going to change. At Kentucky, he had more interesting running backs than proven receivers, but here, it’s probably the opposite.

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

“There were a lot of screen passes. I can thank that, too.”

Say this much for Brandon Silvers: he’s got a self-deprecating streak. Silvers set an FBS freshman record by completing 71 percent of his passes in 2014, which is impressive for any kind of passes.

Still, it did take him a while to figure out how to get the ball downfield. In his first two games against UAB and Duke, he completed 71 percent, but at 8.9 yards per completion, and the offense didn’t actually go anywhere. And after playing well against ULM and NMSU, he hit a late-October wall: 58 percent completion rate, 7.1 yards per completion against Appalachian State, South Alabama, and Georgia Southern.

He rebounded. After another horizontal-only game against Georgia State (17-for-21 for 111 yards), he completed 48 of 59 passes (81 percent) at 10.6 yards per completion, with five scores and no picks, against Idaho and UL-Lafayette.

It was clear what kind of offense he was running; only three times in 11 games did Silvers average better than 10 yards per completion. Troy long had a quick-passing offense, but this was extreme. And it’s not completely good; it’s difficult to complete 71 percent of your passes and still rank 102nd in Off. S&P+, but that’s what Troy pulled off.

The quick passing isn’t going to stop now that Brown’s back. In his seven years as a coordinator, his offenses have only twice averaged more than 12.2 yards per completion. The ball will continue to quickly come out of the quarterback’s hand; the question is whether Silvers can get a little more aggressive, or if his receivers can help him out by breaking tackles here and there.

Efficiency matters over everything else, but you do need big plays.

And in that regard, the most important player on the offense could be senior receiver Bryan Holmes. He was the biggest reason behind Silvers’ late-season success, catching 12 for 204 yards and four scores in the last three games. Of the 10 players targeted with at least 12 passes, only Holmes and Teddy Ruben showed any serious big-play potential. The versatility of running back Brandon Burks (6.1 yards per carry and 7.0 yards per target over about 10 intended touches per game) was also a strength.

Otherwise, this was a pitch-and-catch-and-get-tackled offense.

The ball distribution was impressive -- again, 10 players were targeted with at least 12 passes in just 12 games -- but you need more playmaking. It will be interesting to see if incumbents like big back Jordan Chunn and possession receiver K.D. Edenfield continue to play major roles, or if it’s youngsters like running backs Tim Longmire and Josh Anderson and receivers John Johnson, Andre Flakes, and Richard Hallman.

How much will Troy miss all-conference tackle Terrence Jones? He and two other starters depart from a decent line. The left side is set, but there could be ample playing time for some freshmen on the right.

If you squint, you can see improvement. Troy’s defense allowed 6.8 yards per play and 47 points per game over its first four games, then 6.2 and 31, respectively, thereafter. Granted, part of that came from playing bad offenses like Georgia State’s and Idaho’s, but it did get better.

In 2013, Troy was solid against the run and awful against the pass. But after turnover up front, the run defense cratered. The Trojans fell from 73rd to 121st in Rushing S&P+, and the pass defense didn’t improve nearly enough to make up for that.

Inexperience becomes experience. Troy will return both starting ends, three of its top four tackles, and three of its top four linebackers. Add in a defense-heavy recruiting class that features two JUCO linebackers and some well-touted linemen (including wonderfully named Uvakeious McGhee), and you’ve got a level of depth and potential that didn’t exist last year.

You’ve also got a familiar name running the defense. Vic Koenning served as defensive coordinator or co-coordinator at Troy (2003-04), Clemson (2005-08), Kansas State (2009), Illinois (2010-11), and North Carolina (2012-14). His 2014 UNC defense was awful, but in the nine years prior, he fielded top-40 S&P+ defenses seven times. If he has talent in the front seven, he knows how to use it, and at the very least he’ll have a couple of exciting ends (Jamal Stadom, Tyler Roberts) and some beefy tackles to work with.

Look at the team stats above, and you don’t see any particular defensive strengths. Troy had a decent passing downs pass rush -- not from a blitz, but from speedy, undersized ends -- and considering a solid level of competition, the Trojans didn’t have an awful red zone defense. But neither the efficiency nor explosiveness numbers were anywhere close to where they needed to be.

If Koenning can figure out ways to make the front seven more effective, the secondary could be exciting. Montres Kitchens and JaQuadrian Lewis suffered their fair share of breakdowns, but they also made six tackles for loss, picked off seven passes, and broke up four more. They aren’t great safety valves, but they can be used aggressively.

Plus, while Troy somehow only nabbed one UAB transfer during the Blazers’ fire sale, it was a decent one: cornerback Lamarcus Farmer showed some nice ball skills last year. If another corner emerges, be it senior Tray Hall, JUCO transfer Jalen Rountree, or someone else, this secondary could be fun to watch.

Koenning wants to be aggressive when he can. He’s got pieces to work with at safety and end, and newcomers should help with the pure number of options elsewhere. I could see this defense improving significantly from an efficiency standpoint while still giving up plenty of big plays.

Troy wasn’t a very good field position team in 2014, but imagine where the Trojans would have been without Chandler Worthy, one of the nation’s best on kick returns. (And Troy had plenty of kick return opportunities last year.) He’s gone, but efficient punt returner Teddy Ruben returns, and Farmer has some return experience as well. But any dropoff in return proficiency could be problematic if the legs and coverage don’t improve.

Ryan Kay is an at least mediocre place-kicker, but he boots returnable punts, and Troy’s coverage unit was abysmal, assuring that opponents were able to go tit-for-tat, matching Worthy’s strong returns with their own. Brown’s first recruiting class brought in a few linebackers and defensive backs, and while we don’t know how quickly they’ll see the field on defense, they could be immediately useful in special teams coverage.

...the first invasion of Iraq was in full swing. Whitney Houston was getting ready to sing the national anthem at the Super Bowl. “Ice Ice Baby” had only recently been knocked off of its perch as No. 1 song. Home Alone was dominating the box office. This SNL skit was brand new.

It’s been a while. Brown is tasked with replacing a local legend; while that’s never a fun chore, Troy’s poor 2014 form does make the expectations battle easier. Plus, Brown signed a solid first recruiting class and has added some depth in positions of need.

I thought a little too highly of Troy last year, but it’s not hard for me to see this team playing at the top-100 level I expected last year, if just barely so. Brandon Silvers is no longer a freshman, Bryan Holmes, Brandon Burks, and Teddy Ruben bring excitement to the table, and an aggressive new defensive coordinator has toys to play with.

I don’t see the Trojans contending for the Sun Belt title by any means, but they should improve. And when you’re replacing a guy who held the job for nearly a quarter-century, improvement is a nice first step.