Penn State could win 10 games in 2015, questionable offense and all

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

A program that spent so long admiring its past has been stuck looking into the future.

In the aftermath of the Jerry Sandusky allegations, cover-ups, and arrests, Penn State nearly got the death penalty, then dealt with a scaling back of sanctions as the NCAA realized what it could and couldn’t do.

The Nittany Lions dealt with more coaching searches in three years (two) than they had in the previous 60 (one) and became a lightning rod for rhetoric. From the crowd desperate for vengeance, to the NCAA deciding to swing Thor’s hammer (whether worthy or not), to the Penn State fans who wanted Joe Paterno’s statue put back up, few have covered themselves in glory when it comes to the words “Penn” and “State” of late.

The football team itself has been the stablest entity of the whole ordeal. Despite change, limitations, and constant reminders of what took place there, the Nittany Lions have put approximately the same output on the field every year. They went 8-4 in 2012 (with an impressive F/+ ranking of 28th), 7-5 in 2013 (a disappointing 58th), and 7-6 in 2014 (45th).

Bill O’Brien and James Franklin combined to recruit well and win more than they lost. Considering expectations, this has been impressive.

In 2015, Penn State turns the page, at least as much as one ever should. Franklin signed a top-15 class, and a 2014 lineup that was already rather with post-Paterno signees gets even more Penn State: The Next Generation. This team might not be ready for any significant breakthrough. But after years of focusing on the future because of the past, the present appears ready to make a visit to Happy Valley.

Going 7-6, ranking in the top 50, and putting one of the best defenses in the country on the field despite scholarship restrictions was no small feat in Franklin’s first year. Eight of the Nittany Lions’ 13 games were decided by one possession, and despite youth, awful special teams, and a little bit of bad turnovers luck, they went 4-4 in those. They won a thrilling bowl over Boston College and nearly took Ohio State out of the championship race in October.

For a thin team and a new coaching staff, the season was fine. The way it unfolded, though, with early promise that couldn’t be maintained? It felt more disappointing than it should have.

Through four games, Penn State was playing like a top-25 team. PSU averaged at least 6 yards per play in three games and allowed under 4.9 per play in all four. After recent early missteps (starting 2012 0-2 with losses to Ohio and Virginia, losing to UCF and getting whipped by Indiana in 2013) this was a nice change. And with only two top-50 teams remaining on the schedule, it seemed like PSU might be on its way to an out-of-nowhere 10-win season.

While the defense remained stout -- until the bowl against BC, nobody averaged 5 yards per play, not even Ohio State or Michigan State -- the offense crashed like a bathtub in a sitcom: over and over, through one floor after another. In their next four games, they averaged 15.5 points per game and an incredible (for the wrong reasons) 3.1 yards per play.

As good as the Penn State defense was, the offense made the opposing defense look even better. The offensive line in this stretch might have been the worst in the country.

The young Nittany Lions did rally. The offense became tolerable, improving just enough (last four regular season games: 4.4 yards per play) to secure two wins and bowl eligibility. And then quarterback Christian Hackenberg found enough protection to look awesome in the bowl win.

Basically, Penn State went from playing like a top-25 team, to a top-90 team, to a top-50 team. We’ll see what a year of experience can do for such a limited offense.

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

When you are a five-star quarterback in high school, we wait. Every good throw is met with an “And that’s why the recruiting services loved him,” and every good game is a permanent breakthrough.

Combine that with how we love to overreact to bowl games, even if substantial evidence begs us not to, and the “Oh, Christian Hackenberg is going to be awesome in 2015” consensus formed seconds after he completed 34 of 50 for 371 yards and four touchdowns (passer rating: 156.7) against Boston College.

Mind you, this was the third game all season in which he didn’t throw an interception. And he took another two sacks (the 43rd and 44th allowed by Penn State), dropping his per-attempt average to a good-not-great 7.2 yards for the game. And the performance raised his season passer rating to 109.4, well outside of the nation’s top 100 for eligible passers.

Hackenberg had a miserable 2014. The Pinstripe Bowl served as a reminder that his spirit wasn’t broken, but his offense was for most of the season. Looking at his pass protection, his young receiving corps, and a moribund run game, you could say he didn’t get enough help. But the supporting cast returns intact, for better or worse.

Hackenberg has obvious talent. But his offense was so young that it’s still pretty young: Hackenberg’s a junior, the only returning running back with experience is a junior, three of the top four wideouts are sophomores, five of six linemen with starting experience are either sophomores or juniors.

If the core sticks together for 2016, there could be a major breakthrough. But without any change, how much improvement can you expect in one year from an offense that ranked 109th in Off. S&P+?

You don’t have to work hard to put a positive spin on the potential of Hackenberg and his skill position guys.

When he got a chance in the open field, Akeel Lynch took advantage; only 29 percent of his carries gained at least five yards, but the ones that did, gained a lot more than that.

DaeSean Hamilton survived his freshman season as a No. 1 target, and while his per-target averages were suspect, he showed potential as a possession receiver (14 catches for 126 yards against Ohio State) and big-play guy (almost 14 yards per catch through the first five games).

Geno Lewis showed even more big-play potential early, catching 25 passes for 462 yards in the first four games. Chris Godwin erupted for seven catches and 140 yards in the Pinstripe Bowl.

That all of these players could be in uniform for 2015 and 2016 is exciting, as is the bounty of young high-ceiling players: four other four-star wideouts (sophomore Saeed Blacknail, redshirt freshman DeAndre Thompkins, true freshmen Juwan Johnson and Irvin Charles), a four-star freshman running back (Saquon Barkley), two four-star tight ends (sophomores Adam Brenaman and Mike Gesicki).

Still, most of these players were in uniform last year, and PSU ranked in the triple digits in quite a few offensive categories. High ceilings or not, Penn State has to improve just to get back to mediocre on offense.

Only seven teams allowed more frequent sacks on passing downs. Only three teams allowed more run stuffs in the backfield. Only four teams created fewer downfield opportunities for their backs.

Penn State played a lot of strong defensive fronts; it’s one of the Big Ten’s strengths. But even adjusting for opponent, and even taking into account the young skill players involved, the Nittany Lions’ line stats were miserable.

Really, the line never had a chance. If you want to create a checklist for how to create an awful line, it would look something like this:

Check, check, check, check, and check. PSU entered with only two experienced starters (Donovan Smith, Miles Dieffenbach), and one got hurt. Redshirt freshmen Andrew Nelson and Brendan Mahon combined to start 22 times. Converted defensive tackle Brian Gaia started 12. The lineup changed seemingly every week, and new OL coach Herb Hand had no chance of making much.

None of those checklist items really applies this time. Inexperience could still be an issue, as there’s only one senior in the mix, and nobody has more than 13 career starts. But about 80 percent of last year’s two-deep returns, including six guys who started at least once. Four-star JUCO Paris Palmer is expected to find a spot in the rotation, and for depth purposes, a new wave of redshirt freshmen enters.

Penn State has a reasonably experienced two-deep and will almost definitely improve up front. The question is, how much?

Despite a total offensive collapse, Penn State improved thanks to a ridiculously good defense. Coordinator Bob Shoop, who produced top-30 Def. S&P+ rankings at Vanderbilt in 2011-12, outdid himself with the wider base of talent that he inherited in State College.

And while the pass rush needs to be rebuilt, Penn State returns four of its top six linemen, three of four linebackers, and three of four defensive backs. Shoop didn’t play a large rotation, but quite a few difference-makers within that rotation return, and the personality won’t change much.

Penn State stopped the run on standard downs and the pass on passing downs. The Nittany Lions had one of the most well-rounded Ds in the country -- third in Passing Downs S&P+, fourth in Rushing S&P+, ninth in Standard Downs S&P+, 10th in Passing S&P+ -- and got better as a half elapsed.

But you can see from the run-pass rates above that opponents determined passing was the more appealing option. This was still an elite pass defense, but there were glitches. UCF and UMass gained a combined 485 yards on 29 completions; those two, Michigan, and BC were able to put up at least a 128.5 passer rating.

If the pass rush regresses due to the loss of ends Deion Barnes and C.J. Olaniyan, then there could be more holes in the secondary. But the pass rush wasn’t a huge part of PSU’s success. The odds are good that this will again be a stout defense.

We’re talking about the pass rush because it’s about the only area of the defense that suffered any sort of loss. Barnes and Olaniyan were both solid, though it certainly bears mentioning that while they combined for nine sacks, dynamic Anthony Zettel had eight by himself. (He also had nine non-sack tackles for loss and eight passes defensed. He is fantastic.)

Sophomore end Garrett Sickels had two sacks in limited opportunities, and in Zettel, enormous Austin Johnson, and reserves Parker Cothren and Tarow Barney, PSU has one of the best sets of play-making tackles in the country. The line was so good that Shoop rarely had to rely on his linebackers; on a top-10, high-havoc defense, PSU linebackers combined for only four sacks, only one more than what safeties managed.

Barnes might be missed as much in run defense as pass rush. He was one of five defenders with at least five non-sack TFLs, and while three return (Zettel, Johnson, linebacker Brandon Bell), two do not (Barnes, linebacker/tackling machine Mike Hull). And as good as Zettel and company are, to maintain last year’s high level, at least a couple of younger players -- Cothren, Sickels, linebackers like Jason Cabinda, Koa Farmer, or Troy Reeder -- will be asked to perform at a much higher level. I assume it will happen, but it isn’t a 100 percent guarantee.

How much faith does Shoop have in his young cornerbacks? He moved an outright stud in Jordan Lucas to safety, with the assumption that sophomores Grant Haley and Christian Campbell and redshirt freshman Daquan Worley will handle themselves fine.

If the gamble works, then PSU will again have an outstanding secondary. Lucas combined four tackles for loss with nine passes defensed in 2014 and has a safety’s requisite size. Plus, Marcus Allen more than held his own as a freshman, and Shoop has called field corner Trevor Williams “cold” and “calculated.” So that means one of the only question marks is whether Haley can handle a heavier load. He finished the spring atop the depth chart.

In the “good problems to have” category, high-four-star freshmen Garrett Taylor and John Reid might force their way into the rotation. The two-deep is going to be young outside of seniors Lucas and Williams, but the upside is immense.

In Franklin’s final two years at Vanderbilt, special teams played a significant role in the Commodores’ success. They ranked sixth in Special Teams Efficiency in 2012 and 30th in 2013, and that helped Vandy mask regression on offense and defense.

Special teams did not help PSU last year. Granted, Sam Ficken’s leg helped the Nittany Lions in the bowl win, but he was scattershot, nearly making the same percentage of long kicks as short kicks. Meanwhile, Penn State was about the only team in the Big Ten to lack a dynamic kick returner, and kick and punt coverage were woeful.

With depth at both receiver and defensive back (backups for these units and linebacker frequently make up a good portion of a team’s coverage units), PSU’s coverage has no excuse to rank in the 100s again. Losing Ficken means a flip of the coin on field goals, but I would assume this unit at least improves into the No. 80-100 range.

Penn State survived a woeful offensive line and bad special teams and improved from 58th to 45th in F/+. If the offense improves because of experience and the defense holds steady -- I think both of those ifs are likely -- PSU should move back into the top 40.

So ... with that in mind, take a look at Penn State’s schedule. Trips to Ohio State and Michigan State are brutal, and the third-toughest game on the schedule is ... Michigan at home? Maybe Maryland on a neutral field?

The Big Ten is in a strange place. Because Ohio State won last year’s national title, and because SEC coaches are whining so much about satellite camps, it feels like the conference is experiencing newfound heights. But while a lot of teams are threatening to improve, not many have. And the dead weight is still legion.

Of Penn State’s eight conference opponents, only three are projected to rank higher than 56th. And with a strangely weak non-conference slate (which does include a landmine trip to Temple in Week 1), PSU is scheduled to play three top-50 teams. A top-40 team might win 10 games.

Penn State has plenty of issues. The Nittany Lions might be approaching 85 scholarship players again for the first time in four years, but they are still young and have infinite questions on offense.

But with recruiting improving and the win total likely to increase, this could be a “momentum builds on momentum” situation. Penn State might be in the wrong Big Ten division to compete for annual conference titles -- Ohio State and Michigan State are the two best programs, and Michigan just hired Jim Harbaugh -- but odds are in favor of this becoming a top-25 program soon.