The pupil is the favorite when Bret Bielema faces Bill Snyder in the Liberty Bowl

The five power conference teams ranked ahead of Kansas State in S&P+ (Georgia Tech, Texas, Syracuse, Duke, and Virginia) had a combined 23-37 record in the regular season. The five power teams below the Wildcats (Vanderbilt, Arizona, Missouri, South Carolina, and Wake Forest) went 21-39. Of these 10 teams, only Duke and Arizona were bowl eligible.

So really, a bowl is a bonus for Bill Snyder and KSU this year. The Wildcats went 3-3 in one-possession finishes, with gut-wrenching losses to OSU, TCU, and Baylor sandwiched by tight, somewhat miraculous wins over Louisiana Tech, Iowa State, and West Virginia. KSU was often competitive and duly took care of the three worst teams on the schedule (UTSA, Kansas, South Dakota), but when things went poorly, it got pretty drastic. KSU lost to Oklahoma and Texas by a combined 78-9 and allowed 59 points to Texas Tech.

So which KSU shows up in Memphis? Arkansas is an incredibly worthy foe, but while the Wildcats went just 1-4 against teams ranked in the S&P+ top 30 (the Hogs are 16th), three of the losses were by a combined 16 points. If the game plan works, it works for most of 60 minutes. If it doesn’t, we know quickly.

So when KSU was good in 2015, what were the Wildcats good at? The little things, for starters. The Wildcats rank first in Brian Fremeau’s special teams efficiency this year, with a fantastic return game and good kickoffs. That tends to mean field position advantages when the defense isn’t giving up too much ground. Add to that the other primary Little Thing™, finishing drives: the Wildcats ranked 20th in FBS in averaging 5.3 points per scoring opportunity. They allowed a mediocre 4.6 points per trip (61st), but that’s still a net advantage.

Really, though, it came down to offensive efficiency. KSU has almost no big-play potential in the backfield, where quarterback Joe Hubener and running backs Charles Jones and Justin Silmon are pretty good at gaining five yards and almost never gain more than 10. But the passing game was a nightmare, and the Wildcats desperately needed to stay on schedule to have a chance. Arkansas’ run defense fits perfectly with this: the Razorbacks sacrifice five-yard gains in the name of big-play prevention. In theory, KSU will have a chance to establish the run four or five yards at a time.

If KSU is able to plod along and put points on the board, the Wildcats will have a chance. But the reason they are projected to lose by a healthy margin is basically because they aren’t likely to actually make many stops. A rebuilt defense has not been very good this year, attempting a bend-don’t-break approach but giving up too many big plays to qualify.

In 2014, Arkansas oscillated between blowout wins and frustrating losses, improving from 3-9 to 7-6 but blowing an opportunity for more with an 0-4 record in one-possession games. Still, a 3-4 start begot a 4-2 finish, and the Hogs were one of the scariest teams in the country in November.

In 2015, Arkansas oscillated between blowout wins and frustrating losses, winning another seven games but blowing an opportunity for more with losses to Toledo, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State by a combined 12 points. Still, a 2-4 start begot a 5-1 finish, and the Hogs were one of the scariest teams in the country in November.

This is an encouraging and discouraging trend. You want to be at your best in November, but you want to make sure you actually have something to play for when you peak. Regardless, the Hogs are in the S&P+ top 20 for the second straight year with a record that belies the computers’ beliefs. And if the Hogs treat K-State like they treated Texas in last year’s Texas Bowl, they’ll finish with eight wins for the first time since 2011. They’re headed in a nice direction with Bret Bielema at the helm. They’ll just need to get rolling before the weather turns cold at some point.

Bielema is facing an old mentor in Memphis. After spending the early part of his career with Bill Snyder’s own mentor, Hayden Fry, at alma mater Iowa, Bielema joined Snyder’s staff for a 2002-03 run that included KSU’s 2003 run at the Big 12 title. As Steven Godfrey joked in this week’s Podcast Ain’t Played Nobody, Bielema stiffens up and acts right around Grandpa Snyder. We’ll see if his team treats KSU with a little bit too much respect, too.

Assuming Arkansas is mean and in the mood to push its opponent around, the Hogs should find little resistance from the Kansas State defense. Arkansas’ O is fourth in Standard Downs S&P+, and KSU’s D is 87th. The run works, and after a little bit of a slow start, Brandon Allen has put together an incredible senior season, completing 65 percent of his passes at 14 yards per completion. And on third-and-7 or more, he’s 24-for-44 for 431 yards and 17 first downs; he’s airing it out and finding his target quite a bit.

Check out the monstrous stat preview here.

This game will come down to two things: whether Kansas State is able to stay on schedule and avoid passing downs nightmares, and whether the Wildcats can finish their scoring chances in the end zone. KSU gets better the further downfield it gets, and Arkansas’ defense isn’t the stiffest when the goal line nears. The Wildcats probably won’t generate as many scoring chances as the Hogs, but in a low-tempo, low-possession game, scoring TDs on the chances they get might go a long way ... at least, if Arkansas isn’t doing the same.