Expect big plays in WVU-Arizona State, the last bowl before the Championship

“Arizona State won 10 games in a rebuilding year. Sun Devils are built for 2015 and beyond.” That was the title of my 2015 ASU preview this past July. ASU won 10 games in what I like to call a “measure the fall” season, one in which you transition from one cycle of recruits to another and typically take a step backwards.

Heading into 2015, I saw bright things for the Sun Devils. They had to replace basically five key players -- quarterback Taylor Kelly, receiver Jaelen Strong, left tackle Jamil Douglas, pass rusher Marcus Hardison, and safety Damarious Randall -- but returned almost literally everybody else. ASU looked stacked from a depth perspective and seemed to have understudies ready to step up at QB, WR, etc.

From 10-3 and 27th in S&P+, however, ASU finds itself currently at 6-6 and 61st. The offense has mostly held steady, falling only from 27th in Off. S&P+ to 35th, but an experienced defense has plummeted from 47th to 79th. ASU allowed at least 34 points in every loss and were somehow only 2-2 when scoring at least 40 this year.

What the hell happened? The run front is still solid -- ASU ranks 26th in Rushing S&P+, 11th in Adj. Line Yards, and 15th in opportunity rate -- but a risk-reward pass defense skewed far too much to the former. The Sun Devils have allowed 57 passes of at least 20 yards (124th in the country) and an incredible 21 of at least 40 (128th, dead last, three more than anyone else in FBS). Sacrificing the occasional big play in the name of sacks and three-and-outs is a worthy pursuit, but there was nothing “occasional” about the big plays ASU allowed.

Arizona State allowed only a 57 percent completion rate and picked off 13 passes, but those completions averaged 14.5 yards per, and opponents countered 13 picks with 30 touchdown passes. Yuck. This matches up pretty well with WVU’s strengths and weaknesses -- Skyler Howard completed only 55 percent of his passes, but at 13.5 yards per completion. This game could simply come down to whether Howard completes one pass of 40-plus or four.

Unless the defense is getting bombed out of the building, ASU might have the depth at receiver to counter what is usually a WVU advantage: pass defense. Mike Bercovici hasn’t been quite as successful as his 2014 starting spell suggested he might, but he spreads the ball around well -- six players have been targeted at least twice per game (though only two have averaged better than 7.3 yards per target). The Mountaineers’ defense is incredibly underrated, but depth could help the Sun Devils.

In a way, computer ratings are looking at how frequently you are awesome and awful. What you’ve done is the best predictor of what you will do, so if you’ve been awesome a lot, the odds are good that you will continue to be awesome relatively frequently.

West Virginia was almost never merely good in 2015; the Mountaineers were either wholly mediocre, or they were awesome. They performed at the 90th percentile five times in 12 games -- against Georgia Southern, Liberty, Maryland, Kansas, and Iowa State. They won these five games by an average score of 42-6, and even adjusting for the quality of the opponent (or, for the most part, the lack thereof), that’s awesome. Only seven teams hit the 90th percentile more frequently than WVU: Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Florida State, and Michigan. Combined record of those seven schools: 63-10. West Virginia went 7-5. One of these things, not like the other ones.

WVU was, in other words, maddening this year. The Mountaineers rank 18th in S&P+ because of the great performances -- other measures that use per-play data are similarly friendly, like FPI (21st) and Power Rank (24th) -- but suffered particularly frustrating losses to Oklahoma State (33-26) and Kansas State (24-23), which cost them a chance at a nicer bowl and maybe 10 wins. Hell, the mediocre record nearly cost Holgorsen his job.

So what now? With freshman receiver Jovon Durante expected to miss the game because of academics, the Mountaineers are missing one of the biggest big-play threats in the arsenal, which could hurt against a defense so desperate to allow big play. But Shelton Gibson and Jordan Thompson combined to catch 61 passes at 19.2 yards per catch. WVU was a little too reliant on the big play this year on offense, and it was the cause of some of the Mountaineers’ inconsistency, but against ASU, aggressive passing usually pays. It will be interesting see if WVU leans a little bit more on the pass than it has in 2015 -- juniors Wendell Smallwood and Rushel Shell have averaged 31 carries and 177 yards per game -- in attempt to exploit the Sun Devils’ primary weakness.

WVU still has to prevent big plays, however. The Mountaineers were incredibly aggressive against the pass but were susceptible to big gains themselves, especially once safety Karl Joseph was lost for the season with injury. Top corner Derrick Tindal could also miss the game for academic reasons, so this could turn into a game of deep, successful passing.

I kind of gave that one away above, didn’t I?

Check out the monstrous stat preview here.

Both WVU and ASU have high-risk, high-reward defenses, but WVU’s made the risks pay off far more than ASU’s. That’s why the Mountaineers are projected favorites. But big plays have pretty high rates of variability; if ASU bangs out more 20- or 30-yard gains than it allows, then that could flip the edge around pretty quickly.