Bama-Tennessee is a rivalry of streaks. To break this one, the Vols need these 3 things

On the third Saturday of Oct. 2007, Tennessee visited Tuscaloosa. The Vols were ranked 20th in the AP, but a strong finish would drive them to 12th at year’s end. It would be their 16th top-15 finish in 23 years, their 10th under Phil Fulmer.

Alabama was still lost. The Tide were on their way to a 7-6 record and their eighth unranked finish in 11 years. Since Gene Stallings had retired in 1996, the Tide had washed away. Former Bear Bryant lineman Mike DuBose won more than seven games once in four years. Resurrection master Dennis Franchione won 17 games in two years but ditched Bama for Texas A&M. (When I visited the Bryant Museum in 2012, Franchione was the only former Bama coach for whom there is no memorabilia.)

Following He Who Shan’t Be Named, Alabama hired Washington State’s Mike Price, then let him go almost immediately. Mike Shula, former Bama QB, won more than six games once in four years.

Bama swung for the fences. They brought Miami Dolphins head coach Nick Saban, 2003 national champion with LSU, back to college.

Alabama had lost 10 of 12 to Tennessee when the Vols came to town, but John Parker Wilson threw for 363 yards and three touchdowns and DJ Hall caught 13 balls for 185 yards to lead the Tide to a 41-17 romp in Saban’s first Third Saturday.

Alabama hasn’t lost since in this series. Average score: Bama 34, Vols 12.

The programs traded bodies.

Alabama is on a run of eight straight top-10 finishes and four national titles in the last seven years. Tennessee finished unranked for seven straight years before squeezing out a No. 22 finish in 2015.

Saban made a dubious claim a few weeks ago when he said that the Tennessee rivalry is bigger for him and his program than the Iron Bowl.

“I think you get, very quickly, a feel for what your own players on your own team — even that were here before you came here — what’s important to them,” Saban said. “And it was very obvious to me that the Tennessee game was always the biggest game. It was always the biggest game for us. That’s no disrespect to Auburn or the great Iron Bowl rivalries. But to our players and a lot of our fans, the Tennessee game, because of the tradition of the game, [is important], so it didn’t take long to figure that out.”

I can’t imagine that’s true, but it has been more of a barometer game than Auburn. There have been upsets and crazy finishes in the Iron Bowl. But for most of the last two decades, Bama-Tennessee has given us a clear read of each program.

So, where does Tennessee stand heading into a matchup that features the highest combined poll rankings in the history of the series? What kind of chance do the Vols have of beating Nick Saban’s Tide for the first time?

To prove they’re ready, Butch Jones’ Vols have to do three things: Play their best first quarter of the season, take (and make) some big shots, and hold onto the damn ball.

Tennessee is unquestionably resilient this season. The veteran Vols have outscored opponents by 83 points in the second half and 62 in the fourth quarter. They are everything they weren’t in 2015.

They scored three touchdowns in the final 7:06 to force overtime at Texas A&M. They scored twice in the final 2:56 to win at Georgia. With the game on the line, they relax and fall back on concepts that work. (That, or they throw a Hail Mary.)

This has been a mirror image of last year’s Tennessee. In 2015, the Vols were maybe the best team in the country over a game’s first 15 minutes. But against any team with a pulse, they faltered, clamming up in play-calling and execution.

Sometimes when you plug one hole, another one opens up. While Tennessee is a force of nature in the fourth quarter, the Vols have also been outscored 62-17 in the first. And now they face an Alabama that’s increasingly ruthless out of the gates.

As the relationship between offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and starting quarterback Jalen Hurts develops, Alabama is transforming from a slow-starting team into a well-oiled machine. Only some misfires have prevented even larger early point totals.

The Tide scored on their first six possessions against Kent State, then drove inside the Kentucky 40 on two of three first-quarter drives the next week. Only a fumble at the Arkansas 1 prevented them from scoring TDs on their first three drives against the Hogs.

The contrast is obvious. Tennessee’s late-game prowess only matters if the Vols aren’t down by too much early on. It will probably be more difficult to make up a late double-digit deficit against the best team in the country.

Earlier this week, I wrote about Alabama’s weaknesses, or at least the areas in which the Tide are less strong:

Are these things that Tennessee can take advantage of in Knoxville? Maybe.

Alabama’s defense is a wrecking ball near the line of scrimmage. The Crimson Tide render you inefficient, but they’ve been a little glitchier in the back.

Alabama has allowed only 63 plays of 10-plus yards, which ranks 26th in the country despite Bama having played six games (20 of the 25 teams ahead of them have played either four or five). But of those 63, 12 have gained at least 30 yards (68th).

They allow few successful plays, but the ones they allow can get pretty explosive. Unfortunately, Tennessee hasn’t proven itself much of a big-play offense. Their 15 gains of 30-plus yards rank just 39th in the country — not bad, but not elite either.

The key could come on the outside. The UT run game provides little explosiveness (especially if Jalen Hurd is the primary back), but wideouts Josh Malone and Jauan Jennings have combined to average 18.3 yards per catch. Malone has five catches of at least 25 yards, and Jennings has two (you probably remember both: the tightrope walk/long touchdown against Florida and the Georgia Hail Mary). If the run is working well enough to open opportunities over the top, that could make a significant difference.

The other two Bama “weaknesses” are things Tennessee is more likely to exploit.

Alabama’s standard-downs offense has been conservative and efficiency-based, with a lot of their big plays coming on passing downs.

But Tennessee ranks 14th in passing downs IsoPPP (meaning the biggest passing plays the Vols give up aren’t very big).

Granted, efficiency can wreck you just as well as explosiveness. But in theory, the Vols might be able to play bend-don’t-break enough to hold Alabama to field goals and keep the Tide in the teens or low 20s.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s defense ranks a decent 37th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line).

End Derek Barnett has 4.5 non-sack tackles for loss, lineman Kendal Vickers has 3.5, and linebackers Colton Jumper and Cortez McDowell have combined for 4.5. Despite injuries in the front seven, Tennessee has maintained a disruptive presence.

The Alabama offensive line, combined with an inexperienced stable of running backs, has had occasional issues, and the Tide offense ranks just 57th in stuff rate. If Hurts is facing second-and-12s in a hostile environment, that might prevent Kiffin from being able to get aggressive. And it could allow Barnett to get to know Hurts pretty well.

Tennessee isn’t perfectly equipped to take advantage of Alabama’s weaknesses, but the Vols will have their chances.

Only four teams have fumbled more than 14 times this season: Penn State has 15, Utah 16, Virginia Tech 17 ... and Tennessee 21. The Vols have fumbled four more times than anybody else in the country.

If they had dropped the football only five times instead of six, they might have beaten a top-10 A&M on the road. They fumbled five times against Ohio, four times against Appalachian State, and three times against Georgia, and if not for spectacular early luck, they could have suffered an upset against either Ohio or ASU.

The luck has begun to regress to the mean, as it always does. The Vols have now recovered only 21 of 32 fumbles this season — a recovery rate of 66 percent, down from over 80 percent in September. Not only did they fumble six times against A&M, they lost five. Kamara had an incredible game, rushing for 127 yards and catching eight passes for 161, but he also fumbled twice and lost one inside the A&M 10. Dobbs has fumbled seven times in six games. Unacceptable, especially for a veteran.

Sometimes your best and worst qualities come from the same source. Tennessee stays relaxed and has learned how to take risks and come closer to its upside. But the Vols have become too relaxed at taking care of the football.

To say the least, this cannot continue against a team as good as Alabama.