Week 5 gave us a pretty good idea of how half the Playoff race is shaping up at the moment. If we assume the Big Ten and SEC are each likely to be represented, and that the ACC and Pac-12 are ahead of the Big 12 and the American for the other two spots, then we might actually have a very good idea of how the field will play out.
Updated bowl projections, with Clemson and Washington in the College Football Playoff
Let’s predict who’ll be in every bowl game at the end of 2016, after a big Week 5 helped define a couple Power 5 races.
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So it’s time to update these weekly bowl projections. As always, this is based on my guess of how the rest of the season will play out, after picking a winner and a loser for every game remaining on the schedule.
Below are picks for the entire Playoff, the rest of the New Year’s Six, and every other bowl game as well. Things will change next week and every week thereafter, and then we’ll have an actual bowl season! Won’t that be fun?
Three of four Playoff teams swap this week. Two of those changes were pegged to this weekend anyway.
| College Football Playoff | |||
| Fiesta Dec. 31, Glendale, AZ | Clemson | Ohio State | Playoff rankings top 4 |
| Peach Dec. 31, Atlanta | Alabama | Washington | Playoff rankings top 4 |
| National Championship Jan. 9, Tampa | Alabama | Ohio State | Fiesta winner vs. Peach winner |
Washington obliterated Stanford and is now the obvious Pac-12 favorite. It seems likely a Pac-12 champ can weather a loss and still make it in.
Clemson beat Louisville and could lose at Florida State in a few weeks and still make it. (The issue of whether Louisville can also make the Playoff, even if Clemson’s the division champion, is now being raised. Let’s wait a few weeks and ponder this.)
I’m also bumping Ohio State over Michigan this week. OSU still ain’t played nobody other than Oklahoma, whereas Michigan’s beaten good Colorado and Wisconsin teams, but I do not picture the Buckeyes only beating the Badgers 14-7. I’ve anticipated swapping OSU and UM all season long until they actually play, because the margins are very close.
| New Year's Six bowls |
OK, hang on. Before we go any further, I have a proposal that is against the rules.
This year, the only New Year’s Six game that isn’t locked into conferences is the Cotton, which is guaranteed the highest-ranking mid-major champion. That means there’s only one spot in the NY6 that won’t be based on conference affiliations in the committee’s final rankings, and that spot will just go to the highest-ranked team left over.
At the moment, I have Miami in that spot, which would mean Houston-Miami in Texas. I also have Louisville-Texas A&M in the Orange Bowl.
Let us propose that the committee, with the blessings of ESPN and the affected bowls, pulls off a mutually beneficial switch.
| Cotton Jan. 2, Arlington, TX | Houston | Texas A&M | At-large |
| Rose Jan. 2, Pasadena, CA | Michigan | Stanford | Big Ten 1 vs. Pac-12 1 |
| Sugar Jan. 2, New Orleans | Oklahoma | Tennessee | Big 12 1 vs. SEC 1 |
| Orange Dec. 30, Miami | Louisville | Miami | ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND |
This would mean two ACC teams in one game, but South Florida native Lamar Jackson going home to play the Canes as the state of Texas’ two best teams play in JerryWorld? That’s way better than what the contracts would dictate.
| Bowl | Conference selection order, not based on standings | ||
| Outback Jan. 2, Tampa | Wisconsin | Florida | Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Citrus Dec. 31, Orlando | Nebraska | Ole Miss | Big Ten 2-4/ACC vs. SEC 2 |
| TaxSlayer Dec. 31, Jacksonville | Florida State | Missouri | ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Music City Dec. 30, Nashville | Penn State | Arkansas | ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Liberty Dec. 30, Memphis | Oklahoma State | LSU | Big 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Sun Dec. 30, El Paso, TX | Wake Forest | Arizona State | ACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5 |
| Arizona Dec. 30, Tucson | Utah State | Georgia Southern | MWC vs. Sun Belt |
| Alamo Dec. 29, San Antonio | TCU | Utah | Big 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2 |
| Belk Dec. 29, Charlotte | Virginia Tech | Georgia | ACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Birmingham Dec. 29 | Temple | Syracuse** | American vs. SEC 9 |
| Foster Farms Dec. 28, Santa Clara, CA | Minnesota | Colorado | Big Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4 |
| Pinstripe Dec. 28, New York City | Pitt | Maryland | ACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7 |
| Russell Athletic Dec. 28, Orlando | North Carolina | West Virginia | ACC 2 vs. Big 12 3 |
| Texas Dec. 28, Houston | Baylor | Auburn | Big 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Cactus Dec. 27, Tempe, AZ | Texas | Washington State | Big 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7 |
| Heart of Dallas Dec. 27 | Iowa | WKU | Big Ten vs. C-USA |
| Holiday Dec. 27, San Diego | Michigan State | UCLA | Big Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3 |
| Military Dec. 27, Annapolis, MD | Notre Dame | USF | ACC vs. American |
| Independence Dec. 26, Shreveport, LA | Kansas State* | Northwestern** | ACC vs. SEC |
| St. Petersburg Dec. 26 | Georgia Tech | Cincinnati | ACC vs. American |
| Quick Lane Dec. 26, Detroit, MI | Army* | Indiana | ACC vs. Big Ten |
| Hawaii Dec. 24, Honolulu | MTSU | Cal* | C-USA vs. MWC |
| Dollar General Dec. 23, Mobile, AL | WMU | South Alabama | MAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2 |
| Armed Forces Dec. 23, Fort Worth, TX | Texas Tech | Navy | Big 12 vs. Navy |
| Bahamas Dec. 23, Nassau | Tulsa | Akron | American vs. MAC |
| Potato Dec. 22, Boise, ID | CMU | Air Force | MAC 2 vs. MWC |
| Poinsettia Dec. 21, San Diego | BYU | San Diego State | BYU vs. MWC |
| Boca Raton Dec. 20 | Memphis | Southern Miss | American vs. C-USA |
| Miami Beach Dec. 19 | UConn | Ohio | American vs. MAC |
| Las Vegas Dec. 17 | Boise State | USC | MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 6 |
| Camelia Dec. 17, Montgomery, AL | Toledo | Troy | MAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3 |
| Cure Dec. 17, Orlando | EMU* | UL Lafayette | American vs. Sun Belt |
| New Mexico Dec. 17, Albuquerque | Marshall | New Mexico | C-USA vs. MWC |
| New Orleans Dec. 17 | Appalachian State | LA Tech | Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA |
* = filling another conference’s bid
** = projected 5-7 team, but bowl-eligible based on APR scores
This whole department is a total mess. Having a hard time right now seeing how we’re gonna fill all these bowl slots without dipping into the sub-.500 teams again.
Most noteworthy exit: Oregon, which has made bowls in 18 of the last 19 years, including two national championship games.
Joining us this week: Eastern Michigan, which is 4-1 and on pace for its first bowl since 1987.
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