Tennessee and Texas A&M are so similar. Here are the 3 keys to their No. 1 contender match

It’s easy to say Ohio State-Michigan in November will likely be the Big Ten’s Playoff elimination game. In the SEC, though, we don’t have to wait as long.

The next three weeks should decide the Playoff pecking order within the league, as its three remaining unbeatens play each other in a perfect home-and-road round robin (albeit with A&M getting a bye before the trip to Bama).

Game 1 kicks off at Kyle Field on Saturday afternoon and features one team that has completely changed the script for itself and another that now has the chance to do the same.

The Volunteers are in the AP top 10 for the first time since 2007, and they have done it by becoming Bizarro Tennessee.

Last year’s Vols were maybe the best first-quarter team in the country but couldn’t close games to save their lives, losing leads to Oklahoma, Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama in an otherwise encouraging 9-4 season.

This year’s Vols give opponents head starts. They spotted Appalachian State a 13-3 halftime lead. They allowed Virginia Tech to score the first 14, let Georgia score the first 17, and let Florida score the first 21.

Overcoming this has required fortitude and some fumbles luck, but the Vols have gotten those. They scored the last 17 against Appalachian State, went on a 45-3 run against Virginia Tech, a 28-7 run on Georgia, and a 38-0 run against Florida. And after allowing a last-minute touchdown to Georgia, they responded with a Hail Mary.

And the year before that. The Aggies have spent parts of each of the last six seasons in the top 10 and have mastered the art of the fast start.

It’s the finish that’s been the problem. In both 2014 and 2015, 5-0 turned into 8-5. A young defense sank the Aggies in 2014, while the offense dried up last fall. In both cases, head coach Kevin Sumlin replaced the offending coordinator — Mark Snyder in 2014, Jake Spavital in 2015. In 2016, there were no more coordinators to replace, so Sumlin entered on a bit of a hot seat.

So far, so good. The Aggies survived a late comeback by UCLA to win in overtime, went on a 26-3 run to pull away from Auburn, put away Arkansas with a 35-7 run, and, this past weekend, eased away from South Carolina in a 24-13 slog.

Both teams are clearly strong; A&M is 11th in the latest S&P+ rankings, Tennessee 19th.

But the Aggies have leaned a little bit too heavily on red zone defense; they are first in the country, allowing just 2.9 points per scoring opportunity, an average that is probably too low to sustain.

And Tennessee has fallen behind by double digits in four of five games (and struggled to pull away from Ohio as well) and has required turnovers luck to make up the difference; the Vols have now recovered 12 of their own 15 fumbles and seven of their opponents’ 10.

I said before the Florida game that they were too sloppy and lucky to continue getting away with it. They’ve improved their form just enough to remain unbeaten. But now come the stiffest tests yet.

If you look for the biggest statistical advantages for each team, most involve the offenses controlling situations on standard downs (first downs, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer). A&M’s offense is ninth in Standard Downs S&P+, and Tennessee’s is 16th. Neither defense has been particularly impressive in these downs and distances.

The tide turns on passing downs. Both defenses have active linemen with mean reputations: Derek Barnett and Corey Vereen for Tennessee, Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall for A&M. Garrett injured his ankle against Arkansas and missed the South Carolina game; Hall stepped up with two sacks. Sumlin is as secretive as possible about injuries, so we’ll just say Garrett is questionable for Saturday.

Even if Garrett is limited, it’s clear the offensive advantages for both teams will dry up once they fall behind schedule, even more so than in most games.

So who’s more likely to fall behind schedule? Tennessee back Jalen Hurd is banged up, but he hasn’t been efficient anyway. Tennessee ranks 58th in rushing success rate, and it’s that high only because coordinator Mike DeBord is allowing Josh Dobbs to carry the ball about 11 times per game. Hurd and Alvin Kamara have combined to gain at least five yards on only 37 percent of their carries, and both have nearly as many fumbles (five) as big plays.

Tennessee has been good on standard downs because of Dobbs’ legs and because of awesome first-down passing. The Vols will always be run-first to some degree, but on first-and-10, Dobbs is 29 for 45 for 452 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception. Passer rating on these downs: 188.4. Tennessee hands the ball off just to keep the defense honest and has been handing off less of late. On standard downs against Florida and Georgia, Dobbs threw 34 passes; he completed 21 of them for 359 yards.

(Dobbs’ passer rating on third-and-4 or more, by the way: 93.7. Tennessee must avoid passing downs.)

A&M has the same odd imbalance. The Aggies have been pass-first on standard downs, and quarterback Trevor Knight is only 38 for 78 with three interceptions on first down.

But they’ve committed to the identity enough that it opens up the run. Freshman Trayveon Williams is averaging 9 yards per carry, and not including sacks, Knight is averaging 8.4.

One could see the Aggies leaning more heavily on the run, both because of Williams’ emergence and because Tennessee will likely be missing its top two linebackers, Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Jalen Reeves-Maybin.

Both teams play away from their strengths, but make it work. But you could see how that becomes a crumbling house of cards at some point.

Does A&M stuff the run enough to force Tennessee into constant third-and-8s, then tee off on Dobbs? Does Tennessee shut down the Aggie pass, rendering a strong run game moot?

Both are on the table, especially considering injuries. A&M receivers Speedy Noil and Ricky Seals-Jones have also been limited.

This is a team that, on paper, if you don’t watch it, you’ll say they’ve gotten lucky. They haven’t gotten lucky. They have a veteran quarterback that is No. 1 in this league in points responsible for, whether he’s throwing it, whether he’s running it, whatever he’s doing. He’s the No. 1 guy creating those points in this league.

-- Sumlin

Sumlin can say what he wants. Tennessee has been lucky as hell. The Vols have fumbled more than any team in the country but have a plus-1 turnover margin. That’s luck.

And that’s fine. The Vols have showed enough offensive growth over the last couple of weeks that they might be able to survive when the luck dries up. But they still fumbled three times in those couple weeks.

A&M has fumbled 10 times itself, more than all but 18 teams in FBS. This game has massive turnover potential, and if Lady Luck looks kindly on one team, that could flip the outcome.

Turnovers play an obvious role in the field-position battle, but standard-downs success and strong special teams have allowed the Vols to tilt the field.

Field Position Margin (through 5 weeks)
1. Ohio (+13.4 yards per possession)
2. Old Dominion (+11.2)
3. Washington (+10.5)
4. Temple (+10.3)
5. Minnesota (+9.4)
6. Memphis (+8.6)
7. Mississippi State (+8.2)
8. Tennessee (+7.6)
9. Western Michigan (+7.5)
10. Michigan (+7.0)
...
73. Texas A&M (+1.1)

On average, Tennessee is about 6 yards per possession better than Texas A&M in terms of field position; over the course of 12 to 15 possessions in a game, that could make a difference of 70-90 hidden yards.

When two teams have many of the same strengths (standard downs offense, invasive defensive front) and weaknesses (passing downs inconsistency, sloppiness), that could make the difference.

Both have remained undefeated despite what appear to be fixable issues. Injuries and the bounce of a pointy ball are dying to play roles, but on paper, A&M has only a slight advantage.

Technically, this game doesn’t have to mean much from a Playoff perspective. If either team loses, then beats Alabama, all’s forgiven.

But “All we have to do is beat Alabama, and we’re back on track” isn’t a tactic that tends to pay off. So yeah, it’s big.