Wisconsin survived a gauntlet to become the clear Big Ten West favorite

In my 2016 Wisconsin preview, I was confident in basically two things:

My prescription at the time:

Win some close games. You’re going to be in a lot of them. No matter what adjective we use to discuss the quality of the Big Ten West, there are a lot of teams packed together. That means close games. The Badgers are given between a 40 and 61 percent chance of winning in five of nine conference games, with two likely wins (Illinois, at Purdue) and two likely losses (at Michigan State, at Michigan). Navigate the waters as Iowa did last year, and you’ll be fine.

Maintain confidence. Within the first five weeks, Wisconsin will have played LSU at Lambeau Field and gone to Ann Arbor and East Lansing. And then the Badgers host Ohio State. There are wins on the second half of the slate. Survive until then.

This is probably too much to ask. Paul Chryst’s second year will probably feature a better team and a worse record.

At 7-2, the Badgers could lose the Big Ten Championship and the ensuing bowl, therefore finishing 10-4, technically a worse record.

Still, so far, so good. The Badgers began by taking down LSU in Green Bay, and heading into the regular season’s final three weeks, one thing is clear: Wisconsin is the favorite to represent the West in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers showed well in losses to Michigan (14-7 in Ann Arbor) and Ohio State (30-23 in Madison), but more importantly, they beat Nebraska at home, and they handled Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern on the road by an average score of 23-7.

Per S&P+ win probability odds (explored more deeply in the Football Study Hall stat profiles), Wisconsin has a 75 percent chance of winning the West either outright or via head-to-head tie-breaker. But that means there’s still a 25 percent chance things can get weird.

There is basically a 90 percent chance that a team wins the West either outright or via two-team, head-to-head tie-breaker. But there’s also about an 8.6 percent chance of a three-way tie (with any number of tie-break winners depending on upcoming results), a 1-percent chance of a four-way tie, a 0.3-percent chance of a five-way tie, and yes, a 0.0002-percent chance of a six-way, everybody-but-Purdue tie.

Four games this weekend impact these odds:

It would take a rather significant upset for odds to change much in the afternoon — both Northwestern and Wisconsin should win handily — but the biggest division impact will come in the evening. Nebraska is projected to beat Minnesota by about five points, but whoever wins will become an obvious No. 2 contender to Wisconsin.

If, somehow, the Badgers are upset by Illinois, UW fans should root for Minnesota. A Nebraska win on Saturday evening would make the Huskers the new favorite.

The best chance of that happening is against a Minnesota that both controls its own destiny and faces a hell of a home stretch: at Nebraska, Northwestern, at Wisconsin.

This is Wisconsin’s division to win, but the Badgers still have to close the deal.