How many preseason-ranked teams will fail to make 2016 bowl games? Might be a lot!

With the proliferation of 40 bowl games and the bar for bowl eligibility set so low (six wins, including FCS games!), it’s embarrassing for any major program to miss out.

It’s doubly humiliating for a team to start the season in the top 25 and then to spend the holidays at home.

And yet here we are, two-thirds of the way through the season, and eight members of the preseason AP Top 25 are currently in danger of not hitting six wins. Another, Stanford, will likely make a bowl, but fall far short of preseason goals.

Only two teams from the 2015 preseason poll (Missouri and Georgia Tech) missed a bowl. Every team in the 2014 poll made a bowl. Only three missed in 2013 (Florida, Northwestern, and TCU). This year does look like a potential outlier.

So let’s look at the nine teams, their odds of getting to six wins (according to S&P+ projections), their current projected bowl destination per SB Nation, and — on a purely subjective scale of one to 10 — how much of a disaster missing a bowl would be?

No. 10 Notre Dame: 27.9 percent chance of bowling

Navy, Army, Virginia Tech, @ USC
Current projection: Nope

Potential Humiliation Factor: 9. For 3-5 Notre Dame, the most embarrassing elements of the season are likely done.

When the Irish announced their scheduling partnership with the ACC, the last thing their fans were thinking must have been, “We could lose to Duke and NC State in the same season.” Only a loss to one or both of the upcoming service academy opponents could top those defeats.

On the other hand, this is Notre Dame. Any season in which the Irish miss a bowl is a disaster. Notre Dame would be the first team since Arkansas in 2012 (the John L. Smith team) to go from the preseason top 10 to missing a bowl.

And for this to happen in year seven for Brian Kelly on the heels of two major bowls in four seasons is just bad. It causes Irish fans to wonder whether they have the right coach, a question they’d hoped to have banished after the Davie-Willingham-Weis years. 2016 is the return of a nightmare.

The final insult is that Notre Dame is watching Michigan put several games between the two in the all-time winning percentage standings, a table Notre Dame led at the start of the year.

No. 11 Ole Miss: 80.5 percent chance of bowling
Georgia Southern, @ Texas A&M, @ Vandy, Mississippi State
Current projection: Birmingham Bowl against USF

Potential Humiliation Factor: 5. There’s only so much shame in missing a bowl when you play in the SEC West, especially when you are not one of the marquee programs in the division. Opening against Florida State in Orlando just added to the Rebels’ challenges.

Of the Rebels’ five losses, four were against teams in the S&P+ top 15. And it’s not like Ole Miss fans have long been able to view making a bowl as an entitlement.

Two things could push this Humiliation Factor up higher. First, with NCAA sanctions looming, this might not be the only year that the Rebels are home in December. Second, with the Rebels at 3-5, missing a bowl would likely mean a loss to one of Georgia Southern, Vanderbilt, or Mississippi State, any of which would leave an awfully bitter taste on the pallet.

No. 12 Michigan State: 0.4 percent chance of bowling
@ Illinois, Rutgers, Ohio State, @ Penn State
Current projection: Nope

Potential Humiliation Factor: 7. Like Ole Miss, this is a program whose fans appreciate a bowl trip, as they missed in five of seven seasons before Mark Dantonio arrived in 2007. Their years of success under Dantonio should temper a bowl-less campaign and 2-6 start.

On the other hand, this is a relatively experienced team coming off of a Playoff trip. Youth is not an excuse this year.

And this thought could gnaw at them for the offseason: After years of Michigan fans erroneously predicting that the Spartans could not sustain their levels of success without recruiting on the Wolverines’ level, what if those arrogant jerks were right after all?

No. 13 TCU: 69.7 percent chance of bowling
@ Baylor, Oklahoma State, @ Texas, Kansas State
Current projection: Armed Forces Bowl against Navy

Potential Humiliation Factor: 3. 4-4 TCU might have been a chic pick for the Playoff, but it has not had a horrible season. Three of the four losses were by a total of 12 points.

Moreover, Gary Patterson has bottomed out before and rebounded, so Horned Frog fans shouldn’t feel as if this rebuilding season is the new status quo. Maybe there is some concern that the shift to the air raid has denuded the team of its defensive prowess, but this team spent so long in the wilderness that a bowl-less year isn’t going to be the end of the world.

And what, are hated rival Baylor’s fans in any position to taunt anyone else’s program these days?

No. 16 UCLA: 21.7 percent chance of bowling
@ Colorado, Oregon State, USC, @ Cal
Current projection: Las Vegas Bowl against Boise State

Potential Humiliation Factor: 2. Ignore the fluky final play against Stanford, and all five losses have been by one score each. The season-ending injury to Josh Rosen provides a major excuse for a downturn.

Moreover, if Jim Mora has learned his lesson from the decision to promote Kennedy Polamalu as a smash-mouth offensive coordinator, an immediate uptick should be on the horizon.

The one embarrassment for Bruin fans is that they have to be wondering when they are finally going to turn the corner that Mora and his excellent recruiting classes foretold. Ranking behind newcomers Colorado and Utah, in addition to USC, could also move this up to a 3 or 4.

Sidenote: How happy would Cal fans be if they denied Stanford and UCLA bowl trips in consecutive weeks?

No. 17 Iowa: 90.2 percent chance of bowling
@ Penn State, Michigan, @ Illinois, Nebraska
Current projection: Foster Farms Bowl against USC

Potential Humiliation Factor: anywhere between 2 and 7. The answer depends on the category of Iowa fan.

A certain portion of the fan base, especially those with sharp memories of the program before Hayden Fry, will barely be bothered by missing a bowl, because of the school’s lack of local talent.

But another portion will just be depressed that they are stuck with the same stultifying, mediocre style of football for the foreseeable future, with the one consolation being that Kirk Ferentz’s contract won’t extend by a year after a 5-7 year.

With five wins and Michigan, Penn State, and Nebraska on the slate, that road trip to Illinois looms large. Can Lovie Smith give Illini fans a modicum of optimism by denying their western neighbor a bowl game? And if Iowa beats Illinois in between losses to Michigan and Nebraska, the Hawkeyes will finish with a five-game home losing streak. Feel the excitement!

No. 18 Georgia: 55.2 percent chance of bowling
@ Kentucky, Auburn, Louisiana-Lafayette, Georgia Tech
Current projection: Liberty Bowl against Texas

Potential Humiliation Factor: 8. When you fire a coach because nine wins is not enough and you’re worried South Carolina is going to hire your coveted replacement, that apple of your eye ought not win only five (the current four, plus UL Lafayette) in year one.

Yes, Kirby Smart is a rookie head coach with a freshman quarterback and an under-powered offensive line. However, there is no excuse for a team with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel to be unable to run the ball.

Is Smart going to have the Will Muschamp affliction of sedating any offense within arm’s reach? Is Georgia embarking on a multi-year “have we given him enough time yet?” slog like Texas with Charlie Strong, Miami with Al Golden, or Michigan with Rich Rodriguez?

These questions would become more uncomfortable with a loss to Kentucky or Georgia Tech, two teams against which Mark Richt was 26-4.

No. 24 Oregon: 21.8 percent chance of bowling
@ USC, Stanford, @ Utah, Oregon State
Current projection: Nope

Potential Humiliation Factor: 7. Phil Knight isn’t paying for this.

Sure, the obvious solution to 3-5 Oregon’s unbalanced team is to admit that hiring Brady Hoke – who had never been a coordinator and was never known for his tactical acumen – as defensive coordinator wasn’t going to fix everything.

If Mark Helfrich is in over his head, would Oregon be willing to give up the continuity that has allowed the program to punch above its weight for years? Wins over Stanford, Oregon State, and one of USC or Utah would avert a lot of icky feelings for the summer.

And after all of the jokes about the Ducks’ long winning streak against Washington, it would be quite the step down to miss a bowl while the Huskies go to the Playoff or Pasadena.

This list doesn’t include preseason-ranked teams that have yet to hit six wins but are currently in the Playoff rankings, such as LSU and Florida State, or have FCS games still to go, such as Tennessee. USC’s also not on this list right now despite being 5-3 after a No. 20 ranking, as the Trojans have spent the past month or so looking like a team that should eventually rank around the 20s.

And Stanford will almost certainly make a bowl, but falling all the way from the top 10 to a season near the .500 mark would still be a major disappointment. The Cardinal could still salvage a respectable 9-3, however.