Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3)
December 19, 2016 ( 2:30 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Tulsa -12.5
S&P+ Projection: Tulsa (35.8-26.1)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Central Michigan | Tulsa | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 81 | 47 | ||
| Category | Central Michigan offense | Tulsa defense | Tulsa offense | Central Michigan defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.63 (62) | 5.31 (50) | 5.90 (41) | 5.44 (61) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 392.1 (78) | 428.9 (78) | 527.8 (5) | 377.0 (45) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.16 (73) | 2.11 (61) | 2.76 (27) | 2.20 (73) |
| Category | Central Michigan offense | Tulsa defense | Tulsa offense | Central Michigan defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 28.2 (74) | 29.6 (67) | 35.3 (30) | 30.5 (75) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 90.2 (109) | 101.9 (59) | 110.0 (39) | 98.0 (74) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 96.2 (80) | 108.6 (37) | 112.4 (35) | 99.1 (65) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 95.7 (91) | 103.5 (44) | 110.9 (35) | 95.6 (85) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 93.5 (96) | 109.3 (38) | 108.1 (50) | 101.5 (64) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 80.4 (117) | 107.2 (42) | 103.9 (65) | 98.0 (77) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 107.3 (54) | 111.3 (38) | 109.8 (49) | 102.6 (59) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 96.1 (83) | 103.0 (51) | 117.2 (23) | 107.2 (39) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 100.4 (73) | 86.6 (114) | 112.2 (26) | 100.8 (64) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Central Michigan
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 11 offense vs. No. 51 defense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 29 offense vs. No. 55 defense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 49 defense vs. No. 66 offense)
- Q4 S&P+ (No. 73 vs. No. 80 )
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 77 offense vs. No. 79 defense)
Tulsa
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 12 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 19 defense vs. No. 108 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 24 defense vs. No. 104 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 45 offense vs. No. 125 defense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 28 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Central Michigan offense | Tulsa defense | Tulsa offense | Central Michigan defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.32 (38) | 1.41 (118) | 1.28 (58) | 1.31 (99) |
| EFFICIENCY | 40.4% (90) | 35.1% (9) | 45.2% (32) | 41.9% (60) |
| FIELD POSITION | 27.9 (108) | 30.6 (91) | 30.4 (49) | 30.6 (94) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.7 (46) | 4.5 (70) | 5.0 (24) | 4.7 (91) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Central Michigan -6.79 (119) Tulsa 1.38 (60) |
ACTUAL Central Michigan -3 (83) Tulsa -3 (83) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Central Michigan offense | Tulsa offense |
| Adj. Pace | -6.1 (113) | 14.7 (1) |
| Plays per game | 69.7 (100) | 89.4 (3) |
| Possessions per game | 12.8 (78) | 15.0 (2) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 52.3% (102) | 66.8% (25) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 23.3% (118) | 30.5% (85) |
| % of solo tackles | 80.4% (21) | 74.9% (54) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Central Michigan defense | Tulsa defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 55.1% (109) | 57.1% (90) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 35.9% (51) | 37.1% (44) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 16.6% (46) | 15.5% (67) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.1% (43) | 10.1% (44) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.3% (58) | 5.1% (107) |
| PD to INC | 35.9% (38) | 28.7% (109) |
When Central Michigan has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Central Michigan Offense | Tulsa Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 95.7 | 91 | 103.5 | 44 | Tulsa |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 46.2 | 85 | 40.1 | 10 | Tulsa big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.15 | 50 | 1.15 | 106 | Central Michigan big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.71 | 106 | 2.81 | 45 | Tulsa big |
| SD Sack Rate | 4% | 48 | 5.9% | 43 | |
Passing Downs
| Central Michigan Offense | Tulsa Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 93.5 | 96 | 109.3 | 38 | Tulsa big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 29.2 | 89 | 26.2 | 19 | Tulsa big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.86 | 33 | 1.77 | 116 | Central Michigan big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.65 | 113 | 3.39 | 83 | Tulsa |
| PD Sack Rate | 9.8% | 98 | 6% | 97 | |
When Tulsa has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Tulsa Offense | Central Michigan Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 110.9 | 35 | 95.6 | 85 | Tulsa |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 49.6 | 38 | 47.9 | 73 | Tulsa |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.21 | 29 | 1.20 | 89 | Tulsa big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.28 | 26 | 2.83 | 48 | Tulsa |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.1% | 28 | 3.8% | 95 | Tulsa big |
Passing Downs
| Tulsa Offense | Central Michigan Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 108.1 | 50 | 101.5 | 64 | Tulsa |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.9 | 28 | 30.9 | 62 | Tulsa |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.54 | 119 | 1.97 | 80 | Central Michigan |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.87 | 99 | 3.11 | 52 | Central Michigan |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.5% | 59 | 5.5% | 106 | Tulsa |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
