Memphis Tigers (8-4) vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (10-3)
December 20, 2016 ( 7:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Western Kentucky -4.5
S&P+ Projection: Western Kentucky (36.2-27.5)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Memphis | Western Kentucky | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 41 | 14 | ||
| Category | Memphis offense | Western Kentucky defense | Western Kentucky offense | Memphis defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.04 (35) | 4.96 (30) | 7.26 (2) | 5.50 (67) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 463.6 (31) | 367.5 (39) | 513.0 (10) | 448.0 (95) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.86 (19) | 1.82 (37) | 3.47 (5) | 1.95 (45) |
| Category | Memphis offense | Western Kentucky defense | Western Kentucky offense | Memphis defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 34.4 (37) | 24.5 (35) | 39.7 (9) | 28.8 (60) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 105.7 (52) | 141.0 (2) | 120.3 (13) | 92.7 (95) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 112.2 (36) | 94.1 (88) | 135.3 (4) | 101.3 (58) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 111.9 (32) | 116.0 (17) | 125.0 (5) | 97.1 (79) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 109.0 (49) | 93.9 (92) | 141.6 (5) | 93.1 (94) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 106.4 (55) | 122.7 (17) | 133.3 (6) | 112.8 (31) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 113.9 (38) | 115.5 (25) | 130.3 (3) | 101.1 (66) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 106.4 (50) | 104.5 (48) | 133.0 (7) | 97.5 (77) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 109.5 (37) | 111.3 (27) | 102.3 (64) | 89.7 (107) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Memphis
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 41 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 36 offense vs. No. 88 defense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 48 offense vs. No. 92 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 49 offense vs. No. 92 defense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 51 offense vs. No. 82 defense)
Western Kentucky
- Run Stuffs (No. 11 defense vs. No. 120 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 19 offense vs. No. 124 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 24 offense vs. No. 120 defense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 3 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 105 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Memphis offense | Western Kentucky defense | Western Kentucky offense | Memphis defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.37 (23) | 1.28 (79) | 1.42 (13) | 1.23 (49) |
| EFFICIENCY | 44.0% (45) | 39.0% (37) | 51.9% (4) | 45.5% (107) |
| FIELD POSITION | 32.2 (24) | 27.8 (33) | 34.4 (4) | 26.0 (7) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.7 (42) | 4.4 (55) | 4.9 (29) | 4.4 (60) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Memphis 1.69 (55) Western Kentucky 1.13 (62) |
ACTUAL Memphis 10 (9) Western Kentucky 0 (67) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Memphis offense | Western Kentucky offense |
| Adj. Pace | 1.3 (51) | -4.9 (106) |
| Plays per game | 76.8 (39) | 70.7 (93) |
| Possessions per game | 13.8 (26) | 13.0 (64) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 47.4% (119) | 52.0% (103) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.2% (87) | 26.9% (108) |
| % of solo tackles | 86.1% (5) | 73.1% (76) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Memphis defense | Western Kentucky defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 56.1% (102) | 47.0% (128) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 37.5% (36) | 27.5% (121) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.1% (76) | 17.8% (30) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 6.2% (125) | 10.9% (28) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 8.9% (7) | 6.3% (57) |
| PD to INC | 38.1% (19) | 39.4% (11) |
When Memphis has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Memphis Offense | Western Kentucky Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 111.9 | 32 | 116.0 | 17 | Western Kentucky |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 49.3 | 40 | 43.3 | 30 | Western Kentucky |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.24 | 21 | 1.05 | 55 | Memphis |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.97 | 70 | 2.18 | 3 | Western Kentucky big |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.8% | 90 | 4% | 89 | |
Passing Downs
| Memphis Offense | Western Kentucky Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 109.0 | 49 | 93.9 | 92 | Memphis |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.2 | 52 | 31.3 | 72 | Memphis |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.82 | 48 | 1.93 | 82 | Memphis |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.58 | 118 | 2.90 | 36 | Western Kentucky big |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.4% | 73 | 8.9% | 35 | Western Kentucky |
When Western Kentucky has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Western Kentucky Offense | Memphis Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 125.0 | 5 | 97.1 | 79 | Western Kentucky big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 55.2 | 6 | 51.5 | 110 | Western Kentucky big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.29 | 9 | 1.09 | 38 | Western Kentucky |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.10 | 51 | 3.14 | 93 | Western Kentucky |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.3% | 29 | 3.3% | 101 | Western Kentucky big |
Passing Downs
| Western Kentucky Offense | Memphis Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 141.6 | 5 | 93.1 | 94 | Western Kentucky big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 43.4 | 3 | 31.3 | 68 | Western Kentucky big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.80 | 53 | 1.77 | 111 | Western Kentucky big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.68 | 26 | 3.42 | 86 | Western Kentucky big |
| PD Sack Rate | 4.7% | 19 | 3.1% | 124 | Western Kentucky big |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
