Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5) vs. Navy Midshipmen (9-3)
December 23, 2016 ( 4:30 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Louisiana Tech -4.5
S&P+ Projection: Louisiana Tech (39.5-34.2)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Louisiana Tech | Navy | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 51 | 60 | ||
| Category | Louisiana Tech offense | Navy defense | Navy offense | Louisiana Tech defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 7.30 (1) | 6.06 (110) | 6.77 (9) | 5.49 (66) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 520.0 (6) | 423.6 (73) | 462.8 (32) | 416.5 (69) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.62 (2) | 2.90 (119) | 3.61 (3) | 2.62 (103) |
| Category | Louisiana Tech offense | Navy defense | Navy offense | Louisiana Tech defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 40.0 (8) | 36.4 (110) | 36.2 (25) | 34.9 (103) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 113.8 (30) | 101.4 (61) | 134.5 (3) | 99.7 (67) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 115.8 (30) | 83.3 (121) | 129.9 (9) | 90.2 (106) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 115.3 (19) | 93.1 (99) | 115.0 (20) | 97.3 (77) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 119.8 (21) | 85.1 (114) | 149.3 (2) | 94.2 (91) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 129.7 (14) | 85.5 (117) | 120.2 (26) | 99.4 (69) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 120.4 (21) | 99.2 (75) | 128.2 (6) | 100.4 (69) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 109.1 (45) | 88.4 (112) | 140.5 (3) | 102.1 (55) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 120.2 (11) | 88.4 (111) | 118.5 (12) | 84.7 (119) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Louisiana Tech
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 10 offense vs. No. 120 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 20 offense vs. No. 119 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 17 defense vs. No. 113 offense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 9 offense vs. No. 104 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 21 offense vs. No. 114 defense)
Navy
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 4 offense vs. No. 114 defense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 3 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 7 offense vs. No. 114 defense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 6 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 2 offense vs. No. 101 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Louisiana Tech offense | Navy defense | Navy offense | Louisiana Tech defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.34 (32) | 1.32 (102) | 1.25 (73) | 1.16 (17) |
| EFFICIENCY | 52.2% (3) | 45.8% (108) | 50.7% (7) | 47.6% (116) |
| FIELD POSITION | 30.1 (55) | 27.6 (28) | 30.9 (38) | 28.9 (62) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.2 (12) | 4.7 (87) | 5.3 (9) | 5.2 (119) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Louisiana Tech -2.64 (89) Navy 6.45 (15) |
ACTUAL Louisiana Tech 1 (56) Navy 1 (56) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Louisiana Tech offense | Navy offense |
| Adj. Pace | -5.5 (109) | -0.1 (64) |
| Plays per game | 71.2 (86) | 68.3 (114) |
| Possessions per game | 12.2 (115) | 10.8 (128) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 44.2% (125) | 87.8% (3) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 19.6% (125) | 69.5% (2) |
| % of solo tackles | 71.3% (96) | 74.1% (59) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Louisiana Tech defense | Navy defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 55.2% (108) | 58.4% (80) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 28.0% (117) | 38.9% (22) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.6% (65) | 13.5% (102) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 7.5% (103) | 7.9% (91) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.9% (24) | 5.6% (91) |
| PD to INC | 33.1% (63) | 34.6% (52) |
When Louisiana Tech has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Louisiana Tech Offense | Navy Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 115.3 | 19 | 93.1 | 99 | Louisiana Tech big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 56.2 | 4 | 50.4 | 101 | Louisiana Tech big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.25 | 19 | 1.04 | 91 | Louisiana Tech big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.33 | 18 | 3.10 | 86 | Louisiana Tech big |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.8% | 40 | 4.1% | 82 | Louisiana Tech |
Passing Downs
| Louisiana Tech Offense | Navy Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 119.8 | 21 | 85.1 | 114 | Louisiana Tech big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 41.2 | 6 | 35.1 | 109 | Louisiana Tech big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.71 | 76 | 1.61 | 103 | Louisiana Tech |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.44 | 48 | 2.71 | 26 | Navy |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.8% | 34 | 3.2% | 123 | Louisiana Tech big |
When Navy has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Navy Offense | Louisiana Tech Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 115.0 | 20 | 97.3 | 77 | Navy big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 53.7 | 11 | 51.6 | 111 | Navy big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.08 | 82 | 1.16 | 35 | Louisiana Tech |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.38 | 13 | 3.11 | 87 | Navy big |
| SD Sack Rate | 11.7% | 127 | 4.6% | 71 | Louisiana Tech big |
Passing Downs
| Navy Offense | Louisiana Tech Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 149.3 | 2 | 94.2 | 91 | Navy big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 41.1 | 7 | 37.0 | 122 | Navy big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.97 | 15 | 1.84 | 21 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.99 | 13 | 2.62 | 20 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 10.9% | 113 | 10.4% | 17 | Louisiana Tech big |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
