Ohio Bobcats (8-5) vs. Troy Trojans (9-3)
December 23, 2016 ( 8:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Troy -4
S&P+ Projection: Troy (28.4-24.4)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Ohio | Troy | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 83 | 65 | ||
| Category | Ohio offense | Troy defense | Troy offense | Ohio defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.25 (84) | 4.79 (23) | 5.58 (65) | 4.97 (31) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 396.2 (77) | 355.6 (26) | 439.5 (50) | 361.5 (30) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.03 (85) | 1.65 (23) | 2.50 (43) | 1.70 (29) |
| Category | Ohio offense | Troy defense | Troy offense | Ohio defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 22.5 (108) | 28.2 (54) | 26.7 (82) | 28.2 (53) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 84.9 (119) | 106.9 (40) | 90.6 (107) | 112.8 (29) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 89.8 (97) | 115.8 (20) | 107.6 (48) | 97.8 (72) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 88.2 (110) | 114.1 (22) | 102.5 (61) | 102.1 (50) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 90.0 (104) | 104.4 (53) | 90.4 (103) | 103.4 (57) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 80.0 (118) | 134.6 (9) | 100.9 (70) | 109.0 (39) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 99.4 (78) | 125.9 (15) | 99.8 (77) | 96.4 (83) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 95.2 (88) | 88.0 (115) | 96.2 (82) | 102.5 (52) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 84.8 (118) | 92.2 (97) | 114.2 (23) | 107.4 (39) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Ohio
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 17 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 29 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 30 defense vs. No. 100 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 27 offense vs. No. 93 defense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 54 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
Troy
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 22 defense vs. No. 120 offense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 32 defense vs. No. 127 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 31 defense vs. No. 126 offense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 30 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 24 defense vs. No. 113 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Ohio offense | Troy defense | Troy offense | Ohio defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.32 (40) | 1.26 (71) | 1.30 (49) | 1.17 (22) |
| EFFICIENCY | 38.5% (112) | 35.5% (13) | 42.9% (60) | 40.0% (43) |
| FIELD POSITION | 31.9 (27) | 27.3 (22) | 33.4 (7) | 28.7 (52) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 3.8 (117) | 3.9 (27) | 4.7 (44) | 4.1 (34) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Ohio 2.26 (48) Troy 4.19 (34) |
ACTUAL Ohio 4 (37) Troy 7 (20) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Ohio offense | Troy offense |
| Adj. Pace | -0.4 (66) | 3.1 (32) |
| Plays per game | 75.5 (49) | 78.8 (25) |
| Possessions per game | 13.1 (63) | 13.7 (33) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 58.4% (76) | 52.5% (101) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 43.8% (17) | 36.6% (39) |
| % of solo tackles | 77.5% (37) | 80.9% (18) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Ohio defense | Troy defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 52.7% (117) | 55.9% (105) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 32.3% (84) | 29.0% (108) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 19.4% (14) | 18.9% (18) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 13.4% (6) | 10.8% (30) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 5.8% (85) | 8.1% (17) |
| PD to INC | 36.0% (35) | 33.3% (62) |
When Ohio has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Ohio Offense | Troy Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 88.2 | 110 | 114.1 | 22 | Troy big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 44.2 | 102 | 40.2 | 12 | Troy big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.17 | 43 | 1.00 | 37 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.68 | 107 | 2.56 | 20 | Troy big |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.5% | 13 | 5.2% | 57 | Ohio |
Passing Downs
| Ohio Offense | Troy Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 90.0 | 104 | 104.4 | 53 | Troy big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 28.4 | 98 | 27.5 | 26 | Troy big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.75 | 62 | 1.71 | 85 | Ohio |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.91 | 97 | 2.17 | 5 | Troy big |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.5% | 27 | 6.1% | 93 | Ohio big |
When Troy has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Troy Offense | Ohio Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 102.5 | 61 | 102.1 | 50 | Ohio |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 50.6 | 29 | 46.0 | 49 | Troy |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.16 | 46 | 1.05 | 15 | Ohio |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.85 | 91 | 2.53 | 18 | Ohio big |
| SD Sack Rate | 0.8% | 1 | 6.3% | 33 | Troy |
Passing Downs
| Troy Offense | Ohio Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 90.4 | 103 | 103.4 | 57 | Ohio |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 23.3 | 126 | 28.7 | 39 | Ohio big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.09 | 7 | 1.78 | 55 | Troy |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.82 | 104 | 2.58 | 18 | Ohio big |
| PD Sack Rate | 2.3% | 3 | 11.3% | 10 | |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
