Miami-OH Redhawks (6-6) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7)
December 26, 2016 ( 11:00 AM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Mississippi State -13
S&P+ Projection: Mississippi State (32.8-27.0)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Miami-OH | Mississippi State | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 78 | 55 | ||
| Category | Miami-OH offense | Mississippi State defense | Mississippi State offense | Miami-OH defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.44 (72) | 6.00 (106) | 5.79 (49) | 5.13 (40) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 364.3 (105) | 460.3 (110) | 442.3 (47) | 363.3 (32) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 1.91 (95) | 2.51 (94) | 2.36 (54) | 2.07 (59) |
| Category | Miami-OH offense | Mississippi State defense | Mississippi State offense | Miami-OH defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 25.8 (87) | 30.7 (79) | 34.9 (33) | 28.2 (51) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 96.2 (90) | 103.8 (51) | 126.3 (7) | 98.0 (73) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 104.0 (56) | 91.0 (103) | 105.5 (53) | 102.7 (54) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 100.2 (72) | 100.2 (60) | 117.5 (14) | 99.0 (66) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 99.6 (73) | 89.2 (101) | 106.6 (58) | 106.9 (46) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 111.9 (43) | 101.2 (62) | 113.6 (39) | 84.3 (121) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 89.9 (109) | 96.1 (84) | 113.0 (40) | 109.1 (43) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 109.2 (44) | 94.6 (88) | 122.9 (18) | 101.2 (58) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 83.2 (120) | 98.9 (68) | 105.3 (53) | 104.6 (48) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Miami-OH
- Passing S&P+ (No. 56 offense vs. No. 103 defense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 58 offense vs. No. 105 defense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 55 offense vs. No. 97 defense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 63 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
- Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 62 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
Mississippi State
- Field Position (No. 23 defense vs. No. 112 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 15 offense vs. No. 92 defense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 22 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 39 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 38 defense vs. No. 109 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Miami-OH offense | Mississippi State defense | Mississippi State offense | Miami-OH defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.29 (53) | 1.42 (120) | 1.34 (34) | 1.16 (19) |
| EFFICIENCY | 41.4% (79) | 41.6% (56) | 44.2% (43) | 41.5% (55) |
| FIELD POSITION | 27.7 (112) | 27.3 (23) | 30.8 (39) | 31.8 (107) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.3 (83) | 4.7 (82) | 4.3 (82) | 4.2 (40) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Miami-OH 5.27 (24) Mississippi State -4.61 (104) |
ACTUAL Miami-OH 3 (43) Mississippi State 5 (31) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Miami-OH offense | Mississippi State offense |
| Adj. Pace | -7.2 (118) | 2.3 (42) |
| Plays per game | 66.9 (119) | 76.4 (42) |
| Possessions per game | 12.3 (106) | 13.3 (44) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 55.9% (87) | 63.1% (45) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 39.3% (29) | 35.3% (50) |
| % of solo tackles | 67.2% (115) | 65.3% (119) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Miami-OH defense | Mississippi State defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 58.6% (77) | 55.0% (110) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 32.0% (88) | 34.2% (62) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 16.6% (45) | 15.0% (82) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 8.9% (60) | 10.6% (35) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.7% (27) | 4.4% (122) |
| PD to INC | 37.8% (22) | 26.2% (121) |
When Miami-OH has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Miami-OH Offense | Mississippi State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 100.2 | 72 | 100.2 | 60 | Mississippi State |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 46.4 | 79 | 45.0 | 41 | Mississippi State |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.16 | 44 | 1.00 | 115 | Miami-OH big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.74 | 101 | 2.80 | 44 | Mississippi State big |
| SD Sack Rate | 9.8% | 124 | 4.4% | 76 | Mississippi State |
Passing Downs
| Miami-OH Offense | Mississippi State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 99.6 | 73 | 89.2 | 101 | Miami-OH |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.0 | 54 | 34.6 | 106 | Miami-OH big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.64 | 100 | 1.77 | 106 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.07 | 83 | 3.83 | 114 | Miami-OH |
| PD Sack Rate | 13.3% | 122 | 7% | 75 | Mississippi State |
When Mississippi State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Mississippi State Offense | Miami-OH Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 117.5 | 14 | 99.0 | 66 | Mississippi State big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 49.9 | 36 | 47.8 | 72 | Mississippi State |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.20 | 35 | 1.24 | 19 | Miami-OH |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.33 | 18 | 2.88 | 54 | Mississippi State |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.7% | 16 | 6% | 41 | Mississippi State |
Passing Downs
| Mississippi State Offense | Miami-OH Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 106.6 | 58 | 106.9 | 46 | Miami-OH |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 29.9 | 77 | 27.8 | 29 | Miami-OH |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.92 | 19 | 1.90 | 81 | Mississippi State big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.10 | 7 | 3.28 | 69 | Mississippi State big |
| PD Sack Rate | 6.1% | 39 | 4.9% | 113 | Mississippi State big |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
