Indiana Hoosiers (6-6) vs. Utah Utes (8-4)
December 28, 2016 ( 8:30 PM ET, Fox )
Spread: Utah -7.5
S&P+ Projection: Utah (28.5-26.6)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Indiana | Utah | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 48 | 40 | ||
| Category | Indiana offense | Utah defense | Utah offense | Indiana defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.40 (76) | 5.53 (70) | 5.37 (77) | 4.85 (26) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 429.0 (56) | 390.6 (55) | 417.4 (62) | 375.5 (44) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 1.82 (107) | 1.82 (36) | 2.29 (63) | 1.94 (44) |
| Category | Indiana offense | Utah defense | Utah offense | Indiana defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 29.9 (66) | 25.5 (38) | 31.4 (53) | 23.5 (30) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 90.0 (110) | 107.3 (37) | 107.7 (45) | 117.7 (20) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 125.8 (15) | 109.5 (33) | 97.0 (77) | 104.6 (48) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 99.7 (73) | 109.6 (32) | 104.0 (55) | 111.1 (29) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 125.8 (16) | 104.3 (54) | 96.0 (83) | 110.8 (34) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 111.0 (44) | 103.4 (50) | 90.3 (99) | 95.1 (85) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 94.1 (97) | 111.7 (34) | 110.0 (47) | 120.3 (17) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 113.1 (34) | 105.7 (46) | 99.1 (74) | 115.6 (22) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 114.8 (19) | 106.5 (43) | 110.4 (31) | 114.2 (23) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Indiana
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 26 defense vs. No. 112 offense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 19 defense vs. No. 93 offense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 34 defense vs. No. 86 offense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 34 defense vs. No. 83 offense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 34 defense vs. No. 83 offense)
Utah
- Run Stuffs (No. 32 defense vs. No. 106 offense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 37 defense vs. No. 110 offense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 31 defense vs. No. 101 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 43 defense vs. No. 102 offense)
- Field Position (No. 28 offense vs. No. 84 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Indiana offense | Utah defense | Utah offense | Indiana defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.33 (35) | 1.27 (76) | 1.25 (74) | 1.26 (69) |
| EFFICIENCY | 40.9% (84) | 39.6% (39) | 42.7% (63) | 36.6% (20) |
| FIELD POSITION | 30.6 (43) | 24.5 (2) | 31.9 (28) | 30.0 (84) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 3.5 (125) | 4.5 (69) | 4.1 (98) | 4.4 (53) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Indiana -0.36 (76) Utah -5.84 (114) |
ACTUAL Indiana -7 (108) Utah 7 (20) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Indiana offense | Utah offense |
| Adj. Pace | 4.3 (23) | 3.3 (29) |
| Plays per game | 79.4 (23) | 77.7 (34) |
| Possessions per game | 14.3 (12) | 13.2 (51) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 61.9% (58) | 62.7% (47) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 29.6% (94) | 37.2% (37) |
| % of solo tackles | 82.8% (11) | 74.0% (62) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Indiana defense | Utah defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 62.4% (44) | 53.6% (116) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 36.8% (47) | 26.1% (122) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 19.3% (16) | 20.8% (6) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 11.2% (24) | 12.0% (16) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 8.0% (19) | 8.6% (9) |
| PD to INC | 40.3% (8) | 32.4% (73) |
When Indiana has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Indiana Offense | Utah Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 99.7 | 73 | 109.6 | 32 | Utah |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 43.1 | 114 | 43.8 | 33 | Utah big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.20 | 33 | 1.10 | 62 | Indiana |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.67 | 110 | 3.04 | 77 | Utah |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.9% | 46 | 6.1% | 40 | |
Passing Downs
| Indiana Offense | Utah Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 125.8 | 16 | 104.3 | 54 | Indiana |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 36.3 | 19 | 32.4 | 82 | Indiana big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.68 | 89 | 1.68 | 34 | Utah big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.29 | 70 | 2.43 | 12 | Utah big |
| PD Sack Rate | 6.5% | 46 | 9.5% | 24 | Utah |
When Utah has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Utah Offense | Indiana Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 104.0 | 55 | 111.1 | 29 | Indiana |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.8 | 64 | 41.0 | 15 | Indiana |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.13 | 59 | 1.10 | 59 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.14 | 42 | 2.59 | 24 | Indiana |
| SD Sack Rate | 4% | 48 | 5.8% | 44 | |
Passing Downs
| Utah Offense | Indiana Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 96.0 | 83 | 110.8 | 34 | Indiana |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.0 | 75 | 28.4 | 34 | Indiana |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.72 | 71 | 1.66 | 45 | Indiana |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.52 | 38 | 3.00 | 43 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.4% | 73 | 8.5% | 46 | Indiana |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
