Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-4)
December 29, 2016 ( 5:30 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Virginia Tech -7
S&P+ Projection: Virginia Tech (32.9-25.7)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Arkansas | Virginia Tech | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 53 | 24 | ||
| Category | Arkansas offense | Virginia Tech defense | Virginia Tech offense | Arkansas defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.84 (43) | 4.81 (24) | 5.61 (64) | 6.72 (124) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 431.8 (53) | 342.0 (20) | 454.8 (36) | 429.1 (79) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.52 (42) | 1.59 (17) | 2.49 (45) | 2.51 (93) |
| Category | Arkansas offense | Virginia Tech defense | Virginia Tech offense | Arkansas defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 33.9 (40) | 21.2 (20) | 31.5 (50) | 30.6 (76) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 105.2 (57) | 105.6 (45) | 95.7 (93) | 87.2 (115) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 118.7 (23) | 124.8 (11) | 110.1 (45) | 94.9 (83) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 105.8 (50) | 103.5 (45) | 93.8 (98) | 95.2 (88) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 124.1 (17) | 153.3 (5) | 128.9 (11) | 84.6 (116) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 140.1 (3) | 138.2 (6) | 88.5 (101) | 89.7 (102) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 122.7 (14) | 113.8 (29) | 109.2 (50) | 94.6 (87) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 90.6 (103) | 115.0 (23) | 112.4 (36) | 98.6 (70) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 106.3 (49) | 108.1 (35) | 109.5 (38) | 89.1 (110) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Arkansas
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 2 offense vs. No. 30 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 51 offense vs. No. 72 defense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 35 offense vs. No. 50 defense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 58 defense vs. No. 73 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 81 defense vs. No. 91 offense)
Virginia Tech
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 4 defense vs. No. 128 offense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 14 offense vs. No. 121 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 116 defense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 11 defense vs. No. 113 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 27 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Arkansas offense | Virginia Tech defense | Virginia Tech offense | Arkansas defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.30 (51) | 1.24 (58) | 1.23 (85) | 1.42 (121) |
| EFFICIENCY | 43.0% (58) | 37.7% (27) | 44.7% (38) | 44.3% (86) |
| FIELD POSITION | 27.8 (109) | 28.2 (43) | 33.2 (13) | 29.1 (66) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.6 (60) | 4.2 (41) | 4.4 (75) | 4.8 (94) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Arkansas 2.39 (47) Virginia Tech 2.16 (50) |
ACTUAL Arkansas -2 (77) Virginia Tech -3 (83) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Arkansas offense | Virginia Tech offense |
| Adj. Pace | 0.0 (62) | 6.3 (17) |
| Plays per game | 74.0 (59) | 81.1 (18) |
| Possessions per game | 12.3 (106) | 14.1 (20) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 65.5% (35) | 56.6% (86) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.0% (91) | 45.5% (14) |
| % of solo tackles | 68.5% (109) | 67.2% (114) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Arkansas defense | Virginia Tech defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 56.0% (103) | 60.7% (60) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 34.3% (59) | 38.8% (24) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.5% (66) | 20.3% (7) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 8.8% (69) | 12.2% (13) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.6% (46) | 7.9% (23) |
| PD to INC | 38.1% (18) | 34.7% (50) |
When Arkansas has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Arkansas Offense | Virginia Tech Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 105.8 | 50 | 103.5 | 45 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.0 | 96 | 46.4 | 54 | Virginia Tech |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.19 | 38 | 1.19 | 70 | Arkansas |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.41 | 122 | 2.68 | 32 | Virginia Tech big |
| SD Sack Rate | 7.9% | 117 | 4.3% | 79 | Virginia Tech |
Passing Downs
| Arkansas Offense | Virginia Tech Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 124.1 | 17 | 153.3 | 5 | Virginia Tech |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 38.6 | 12 | 21.7 | 6 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.58 | 114 | 2.19 | 77 | Virginia Tech |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.74 | 24 | 2.50 | 13 | Virginia Tech |
| PD Sack Rate | 6.8% | 51 | 7.4% | 72 | Arkansas |
When Virginia Tech has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Virginia Tech Offense | Arkansas Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 93.8 | 98 | 95.2 | 88 | Arkansas |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.4 | 69 | 49.5 | 88 | Virginia Tech |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.06 | 91 | 1.11 | 102 | Virginia Tech |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.84 | 92 | 3.06 | 81 | Arkansas |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.1% | 52 | 4.6% | 71 | Virginia Tech |
Passing Downs
| Virginia Tech Offense | Arkansas Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 128.9 | 11 | 84.6 | 116 | Virginia Tech big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 38.8 | 10 | 32.6 | 83 | Virginia Tech big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.66 | 94 | 1.77 | 125 | Virginia Tech |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.20 | 76 | 4.27 | 127 | Virginia Tech big |
| PD Sack Rate | 9.4% | 91 | 6.8% | 81 | Arkansas |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
