Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (8-4)
December 30, 2016 ( 3:30 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Tennessee -3
S&P+ Projection: Nebraska (29.8-28.7)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Nebraska | Tennessee | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 34 | 43 | ||
| Category | Nebraska offense | Tennessee defense | Tennessee offense | Nebraska defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.18 (92) | 5.74 (84) | 6.27 (24) | 5.23 (46) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 380.6 (93) | 462.3 (111) | 443.3 (45) | 351.8 (25) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.21 (69) | 2.04 (54) | 2.57 (40) | 1.90 (41) |
| Category | Nebraska offense | Tennessee defense | Tennessee offense | Nebraska defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 30.2 (62) | 29.3 (65) | 35.2 (32) | 22.4 (25) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 97.9 (85) | 95.5 (85) | 124.3 (9) | 105.2 (47) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 116.1 (28) | 102.2 (55) | 127.0 (12) | 106.5 (42) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 99.6 (75) | 94.4 (92) | 126.1 (4) | 101.8 (51) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 118.3 (25) | 110.9 (33) | 114.7 (35) | 114.0 (31) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 103.9 (66) | 92.0 (98) | 129.2 (18) | 98.7 (72) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 101.8 (68) | 100.0 (70) | 109.1 (51) | 103.7 (55) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 99.6 (71) | 112.5 (26) | 115.5 (28) | 111.4 (30) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 117.4 (16) | 85.9 (115) | 140.4 (1) | 106.2 (45) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Nebraska
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 18 defense vs. No. 78 offense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 15 offense vs. No. 65 defense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 23 offense vs. No. 71 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 4 offense vs. No. 51 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 2 defense vs. No. 48 offense)
Tennessee
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 6 offense vs. No. 73 defense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 36 defense vs. No. 101 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 10 offense vs. No. 74 defense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 6 offense vs. No. 67 defense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 18 offense vs. No. 78 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Nebraska offense | Tennessee defense | Tennessee offense | Nebraska defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.17 (107) | 1.24 (52) | 1.31 (44) | 1.23 (46) |
| EFFICIENCY | 43.5% (51) | 42.8% (70) | 45.4% (28) | 39.7% (40) |
| FIELD POSITION | 30.7 (41) | 26.8 (13) | 33.4 (8) | 28.6 (48) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.6 (64) | 4.5 (71) | 4.7 (48) | 4.3 (45) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Nebraska -3.58 (97) Tennessee -4.66 (106) |
ACTUAL Nebraska 5 (31) Tennessee -2 (77) |
||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Nebraska offense | Tennessee offense |
| Adj. Pace | 0.1 (61) | -2.8 (87) |
| Plays per game | 73.4 (66) | 70.7 (94) |
| Possessions per game | 12.1 (116) | 14.1 (16) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 69.7% (12) | 62.5% (52) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 29.6% (93) | 36.4% (40) |
| % of solo tackles | 68.9% (107) | 74.0% (63) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Nebraska defense | Tennessee defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 57.5% (86) | 64.8% (25) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 27.8% (119) | 39.4% (18) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.6% (63) | 16.3% (50) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 6.5% (120) | 10.0% (49) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 9.1% (4) | 6.2% (65) |
| PD to INC | 37.3% (24) | 31.0% (90) |
When Nebraska has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Nebraska Offense | Tennessee Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 99.6 | 75 | 94.4 | 92 | Nebraska |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.3 | 71 | 49.4 | 86 | Nebraska |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 0.97 | 122 | 1.11 | 76 | Tennessee |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.83 | 96 | 3.17 | 96 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.6% | 15 | 4.8% | 65 | Nebraska |
Passing Downs
| Nebraska Offense | Tennessee Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 118.3 | 25 | 110.9 | 33 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 35.2 | 26 | 29.3 | 45 | Nebraska |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.78 | 57 | 1.58 | 29 | Tennessee |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.94 | 95 | 3.13 | 53 | Tennessee |
| PD Sack Rate | 3% | 4 | 8.3% | 51 | Nebraska |
When Tennessee has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Tennessee Offense | Nebraska Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 126.1 | 4 | 101.8 | 51 | Tennessee |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 50.4 | 34 | 45.2 | 43 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.23 | 23 | 1.12 | 69 | Tennessee |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.30 | 21 | 2.73 | 35 | Tennessee |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.4% | 78 | 7.4% | 18 | Nebraska big |
Passing Downs
| Tennessee Offense | Nebraska Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 114.7 | 35 | 114.0 | 31 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.7 | 45 | 29.1 | 42 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.62 | 102 | 1.64 | 15 | Nebraska big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.39 | 52 | 3.13 | 53 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 10.3% | 105 | 6.1% | 93 | Nebraska |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
