Perhaps you’ve heard Deshaun Watson’s slipped a bit this year. Well, he’s still in New York for the Heisman this weekend, so who’s really got the last laugh, haters?
Deshaun Watson had better 2016 stats than you might think (and his stats are awesome)
Tougher opponents have made the Heisman finalist’s numbers just a bit less amazing.
Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports
In all seriousness, there is a discussion to be had about Watson’s performance year-over-year, especially when it’s factored in that the Tigers looked far from dominant on this year’s run to the College Football Playoff.
Our Clemson blog tackled the topic back in October. Just why in the world has Watson seemingly struggled this season?
The real reason for Clemson’s struggles is a bit vague. It is that Clemson just isn’t stringing drives together to result in scores. Some of that is because of turnovers deep in opponent territory, and some of it is poor playcalling in critical situations. But the top level stats are pretty similar to last year; it is just something isn’t working quite right.
In the interest of simplicity, we’d love to just point at one number and say, “There, that’s the reason why this season’s been so different.” But it’s not that easy, so let’s look at the raw output, since those are easier to digest.
Through the same amount of games last season, the numbers stack up well. ESPN’s David Hale did just that.
And Watson improved after that substandard start to the season, which compares decently to likely Heisman winner Lamar Jackson of Louisville.
But adding in Clemson’s schedule gives us some additional context to his 2016 numbers.
In 2016, the Tigers faced seven defenses ranked in the top-30 of the S&P+ efficiency rankings (which are adjusted for opponent). In 2015’s regular season, only three. The level of competition raised, and Watson kept his play relatively stagnant compared to last season.
You want to stack him against the most statistically absurd QB this season? Fine. Hale compared Watson and Jackson against like defenses.
But let’s talk about rushing.
Watson’s 529 yards at this point means that it’ll be tough for him to get to the 1,105 yards he rushed for last season. It would take two Herculean efforts on the ground to equal his 2015 numbers, and that probably isn’t to be expected. Other than the fact that that is a ton of yards to try and gain in two games (and he might only get one if Clemson loses), Watson is averaging nearly four yards per game fewer on rushing attempts this season.
When you take a look at his rushing attempts last season, it seems that the Tigers are doing a unique thing with Watson: they’re saving his legs even more so than last season.
From Oct. 3 of last season until the final game of the regular season, Watson rushed for more than 15 attempts once (16 rushes against Florida State). In the final game of the 2015 regular season, Watson rushed 21 times. He then rushed 24 times in the ACC title game, 24 times in the CFP semifinal and 20 times in the title game.
Clemson looks like they’re treating him similarly this season. Watson’s rushed more than 10 times in a game only once since October (again, against Florida State), and he’s being called on to tote the mail fewer times this season in general with only 4.1 yards per carry. But in the ACC title game against Virginia Tech, Watson had 17 carries, which ties for a season high. Clemson may deploy Watson’s full skill set in the College Football Playoff, and taking the bridles off of him makes the team harder to defend.
Watson’s not having a Jackson year, but the narrative that there’s been a precipitous drop off for him just isn’t true. There are reasons why the numbers look differently, and when you see the finished product in January, it could look just as good or better than last season.
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