Southern Miss football is alive again, and 2016’s schedule couldn’t be kinder

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We like to think of program building as linear. You do pretty poorly in your first year, then you do a little better in your second, a little better in your third, etc., until one day you’re good.

Sometimes you skip a few steps. Sometimes improvement never comes. Sometimes you leap ahead one year, then take a step backward the next.

When your fortunes are derived from getting a herd of 18- to 22-year old males to act collectively, things are rarely going to go specifically as planned.

Through 2.5 seasons, though, it almost felt like a linear experience for Todd Monken at Southern Miss. When Monken took over, the program had just gone through whiplash. After an almost two-decade string of good performances, USM had broken through with a 12-2 2011, then fallen through a trap door to 0-12 when Larry Fedora left.

The Eagles were probably even worse in Monken’s first season, though they did manage to win one game. But they showed clear improvement in a 3-9 2014, and through six games in 2015, they had taken another step forward. They were inconsistent, but they were 3-3.

And then Southern Miss skipped right to being downright good. From October 17 to November 28, the Eagles might have been the best mid-major. They beat five admittedly awful teams by an average score of 46-15, then they went to Ruston and punked a solid Louisiana Tech to win the C-USA West out of nowhere. Midway through, 6-6 seemed like a solid goal. Southern Miss finished 9-3.

Granted, the postseason was a bummer. The Golden Eagles played well in the first halves of the C-USA title game against Western Kentucky and the Heart of Dallas Bowl against Washington, but in the second halves they were outscored 24-7 by WKU and 23-14 by Washington.

Still, after winning four games in three years, 9-5 was a minor miracle. And while Monken’s name floated around a few times during college football’s December coaching carousel, it appeared he was going to stay for at least one more year.

But in January, with Signing Day only a couple of weeks away, Monken left. He became Dirk Koetter’s offensive coordinator with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

It only took a week to find Monken’s replacement. Jay Hopson, who spent six seasons under Jeff Bower at Southern Miss (DBs coach from 2001-03, defensive coordinator in 2006-07) and who has spent almost all of his 24-year career south of the Mason-Dixon Line, moved two and a half hours from Alcorn State to Southern Miss. He went 28-10 in his final three seasons as ASU’s head coach and won two SWAC titles -- in 2015, despite all the limitations associated with HBCUs, Alcorn State ranked 171st in Jeff Sagarin’s ratings, ahead of four FBS programs -- and he knows the territory.

On paper, hiring Hopson made sense. But after 2015’s unexpected surge, he inherits a program that is just now remembering what expectations feels like. The bar is pretty high again.

Yes, the level of competition had a role in Southern Miss’ surge, but even adjusting for opponent, the Eagles really did go from playing at a top-75 level to a top-25 level overnight.

Two touchdowns better on offense, two touchdowns better on defense. That isn’t all because of poor competition.

From a projections standpoint, your full-season output and multi-year output are usually more informative than a half-season’s surge, but if you return the players most responsible for that surge, it can be sustainable. Quarterback Nick Mullens is back after throwing for nearly 4,500 yards in 2015, as is most of the offensive line, defensive line, and secondary.

But Mullens will be looking at a pretty different supporting cast. One of two 1,000-yard rushers (Jalen Richard) is gone, as are both of the receivers who caught 70-plus passes (Mike Thomas, Casey Martin). These three were the efficiency base of the offense, and more all-or-nothing players (running back Ito Smith, receiver D.J. Thompson) will step into go-to roles.

Plus, of course, new men are in the roles of head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator. That kind of turnover can stop a program in its tracks.

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

In a way, Chip Lindsey’s play-calling could have put Southern Miss in a bind. The Eagles had one of the least-efficient standard downs offenses in the country; they ranked 107th in Standard Downs Success Rate+. Nick Mullens had free rein to look deep downfield for lower-efficiency passes, and under 40 percent of Jalen Richard’s and Ito Smith’s carries gained five or more yards.

First down often resulted in second-and-long for Southern Miss. But that wasn’t necessarily a bad thing because the Eagles knew how to catch up to the chains. On third-and-7 or more, Mullens was absurd: 51-for-68, 762 yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 193.4 passer rating.

USM’s consistent success seemed to almost have a demoralizing effect on opponents. Though the postseason didn’t play out like this, Southern Miss’ output improved in each successive quarter in the regular season -- the Eagles ranked 77th in Q1 S&P+ and eighth in Q4.

Will the passing downs magic continue for Mullen? New play-caller Shannon Dawson* -- former offensive coordinator at Stephen F. Austin, West Virginia, and Kentucky -- will almost certainly put the game in his hands in a pass-first attack, but he will be without two security blankets.

^{* Hiring Dawson was an interesting move by Hopson, who saw quite a bit of success with dual-threat quarterbacks at Alcorn State. In 2015, ASU’s Lenorris Footman and John Gibbs Jr. combined for 1,800 passing yards and 1,300 rushing yards. But while freshman Keon Howard was a decent runner, USM quarterbacks are mostly pass-heavy.}

When you know how to get seven yards (or a lot more) on third-and-7, the world is your oyster. You can afford to go deep on first down or give explosive, inefficient backs (and few were more explosive and inefficient than Smith) chances to break free.

Thomas and Martin combined to catch 23 passes for 450 yards on third-and-long. They were Mullens’ favorite targets, and they are gone.

The return of D.J. Thompson assures Mullens will have one seasoned target. The return of Marquise Ricard from injury will help, and it’s possible that the small-sample dominance of sophomore Korey Robertson (17 targets, 14 catches, 200 yards) is a sign of awesome things to come. But between these two, one-time prospect Tyre’oune Holmes, and recent JUCO transfers (Isaiah Jones, Shannon Smith, Allenzae Staggers), a couple of reliable targets will need to emerge.

Then there’s the matter of Smith’s inefficiency. Of the 108 players with at least 150 carries in 2015, only four surpassed Smith’s 9.3 highlight yards per opportunity: Florida State’s Dalvin Cook, Maryland’s Brandon Ross, Georgia Southern’s Matt Breida, and WMU’s Jamauri Bogan. But like Ross and Bogan, Smith mixed a lot of tiny gains among the explosions. Unless Mullens is able to continue his passing downs magic with a new cast of receivers, he still needs a few more five-yard gains from Smith among the 30-yarders.

Southern Miss’ offensive line was neither great nor terrible. The Eagles struggled to get much of a short-yardage push, but they did a decent job of protecting Mullens.

But pass protection might be a bit more of an issue now that tackles Rashod Hill and Norman Price, who combined for five years’ worth of starts, are gone. The interior appears well-stocked, especially with the return of all-conference center Cameron Tom, but who mans the edges?

Southern Miss’ defensive mentality matched its offense’s in aggressiveness. Whereas the offense wasn’t scared of falling into third-and-long in the name of making big plays, the defense was unafraid of giving up a few big plays in the name of forcing third-and-longs. The Golden Eagles were efficient but allowed 19 gains of 30-plus yards (101st in FBS).

This can work as long as your opponent isn’t demonstrably more athletic. Against power-conference opponents (Mississippi State, Nebraska, Washington), the Eagles allowed 7.5 yards per play and 43 points per game. Against everyone else: 4.7 per play and 22 points per game.

One assumes Southern Miss’ havoc approach won’t change despite the fact that Hopson didn’t retain defensive coordinator David Duggan. Incoming coordinator Tony Pecoraro ran Hopson’s Alcorn State defense last year, and the Braves were even more aggressive than Southern Miss. They committed lots of penalties (118), but they recorded 46 sacks and 119 tackles for loss, defensed 59 passes, and finished with a 23.2 percent havoc rate. That would have ranked first in FBS.

The good news: Pecoraro should have all sorts of attacking success on the edges. Ends Dylan Bradley, Xavier Thigpen, and Naim Mustafaa return after combining for 21 TFLs and 12.5 sacks, and outside linebackers Elijah Parker and Darian Yancey (who could also play end) added 13.5 and 2.5, respectively.

The bad news: Starting tackles Andrew Bolton and Michael Smith are gone, as is dynamic MLB Brian Anderson. These three gave Southern Miss a unique attacking presence up the middle (combined: 21 TFLs, eight sacks) and allowed Duggan to get creative in when and how he rained havoc on opponents. [Update: linebacker Jordan Harris transferred to the program from Iowa State in June for his senior season with immediate eligibility.]

Draper Riley and LaDarius Harris were both in the tackle rotation in 2015, Yancey is big enough to man the MLB position if need be, and Monken recruited linebackers pretty well (six of the 11 listed above were three-star recruits according to the 247Sports Composite). Plus, it’s possible that big, aggressive safety D’Nerius Antoine ends up at linebacker. But the backbone of the defense has a decent amount to prove.

Depending on where Antoine lines up, the Southern Miss secondary either returns a ton or merely a lot. Antoine is a nickel back prototype who will do damage no matter how he’s classified, but Southern Miss’ experience in the back stretches far beyond him. The Eagles also get safeties Picasso Nelson Jr. and Devonta Foster back, and Cornell Armstrong is a play-maker at corner.

The biggest (only?) question comes opposite Armstrong. Only four players defensed (intercepted or broke up) more passes than Kalan Reed last year, and his departure means either Curtis Mikell, Trae Collins, or a newcomer will need to step up. Both Mikell and Collins played quite a bit last year -- USM’s secondary went eight deep -- but Reed was a special play-maker. [Update: Devontre Parnell transferred to USM from Louisville for his senior season. He’ll be available immediately.]

Still, the biggest concerns come at tackle and middle linebacker. Southern Miss has plenty of options in the back.

Southern Miss’ return games were solid and sturdy in 2015 despite a lack of huge returns. But the Eagles ranked just 119th in Special Teams S&P+ because of, well, everything else. Stephen Brauchle missed four PATs and wasn’t a threat outside of 40 yards, and since he didn’t manage many touchbacks on kickoffs, a shaky coverage unit was tested and often failed.

Meanwhile, Southern Miss’ punt efficiency was maybe the worst in the country. Tyler Sarrazin had quite a few punts downed inside the 20, but opponents averaged nearly nine yards per return.

Brauchle and Sarrazin are back, for better or worse, and while Ito Smith has potential in the return game, he’s the only returning return man with experience. So the weaknesses of the special teams unit might not get stronger, but the strengths could get weaker. Not a great combination.

Hiring Hopson makes sense, but it’s a shame Southern Miss had to undergo change. Monken did a wonderful job, especially in his third season, and without change, the Golden Eagles would have appeared poised for a huge year with the schedule at hand.

USM is projected 72nd in S&P+ and plays only one team projected higher. The trip to LSU is a likely loss, games against Kentucky, Marshall and perhaps Louisiana Tech are basically tossups (with a coin slightly weighted in USM’s favor), and the other eight are likely wins. But those projections are based on Monken’s work. A coaching change always threatens progress.

After a few lost years, Southern Miss is back among the living. Monken handed Hopson a program in far better shape than the one he inherited, and it would be a surprise if Hopson didn’t do a solid job. He’s been groomed for it. But a brief step backwards is on the table if the offense isn’t quite as good on third-and-long and the defense isn’t as good at forcing third-and-long.

If Hopson is able to navigate, the Eagles will have a solid shot at their second 10-win season since 1988, when Brett Favre was a sophomore.