Ohio State returns six starters in 2016, sending a possibly historic group to the NFL Draft. In Bill Connelly’s returning-production rankings, the Buckeyes rank No. 127.
History shows Ohio State fans shouldn’t worry about returning so few starters
Urban Meyer isn’t the first coach in the past two decades to replace a ton of players from a successful team. How have the others fared?
Jonathan Ernst/Getty Images
College football fans will hear that starters statistic ad nauseam. Every time the Buckeyes are discussed on the radio or podcasts, that factoid will be followed by, “Can Urban Meyer sustain his success with so little returning experience?” It is the specter hanging over a team that has gone 50-4 in the past four seasons.
Well, are there examples of teams in the last two decades that returned single-digit starters from a team that finished in the top 10 (according to Connelly’s S&P+ ratings)? And how did those teams do in the following seasons?
Since 1995, 25 teams fit those criteria.
| Team | Previous season final S&P+ ranking | Returning starters | New season final S&P+ ranking | Difference |
| Auburn 2011 | 2 | 6 | 43 | ↓ 41 |
| Cal 2005 | 5 | 8 | 55 | ↓ 50 |
| Florida 1999 | 5 | 8 | 12 | ↓ 7 |
| Florida 2007 | 1 | 8 | 3 | ↓ 2 |
| Florida 2013 | 3 | 9 | 33 | ↓ 30 |
| Florida State 1997 | 4 | 9 | 1 | ↑ 3 |
| Florida State 2001 | 2 | 8 | 8 | ↓ 6 |
| Georgia 2003 | 5 | 9 | 4 | ↑ 1 |
| Georgia 2006 | 7 | 9 | 34 | ↓ 27 |
| Kansas State 1999 | 3 | 9 | 11 | ↓ 8 |
| Kansas State 2001 | 8 | 8 | 15 | ↓ 7 |
| Missouri 1999 | 7 | 9 | 65 | ↓ 58 |
| Nebraska 1995 | 4 | 8 | 1 | ↑ 3 |
| Nebraska 1997 | 2 | 9 | 2 | |
| Ohio State 1997 | 3 | 8 | 7 | ↓ 4 |
| Ohio State 2006 | 3 | 9 | 4 | ↓ 1 |
| Oklahoma 2005 | 2 | 9 | 14 | ↓ 12 |
| Oklahoma State 2014 | 9 | 8 | 63 | ↓ 54 |
| Penn State 2000 | 6 | 9 | 59 | ↓ 53 |
| Penn State 2006 | 4 | 9 | 30 | ↓ 26 |
| Penn State 2009 | 5 | 9 | 13 | ↓ 8 |
| Syracuse 2002 | 6 | 9 | 70 | ↓ 64 |
| TCU 2011 | 10 | 8 | 20 | ↓ 10 |
| Tennessee 2000 | 4 | 9 | 29 | ↓ 25 |
| USC 2006 | 1 | 9 | 3 | ↓ 2 |
| Average | 4.44 | 8.52 | 25.65 | ↓ 21.21 |
Overall, the clear pattern is that top teams regress when they replace 13 or more of their 22 starters. Of the 25 teams in the sample, 21 regressed, three improved and one held the same rank.
The average team dropped from a ranking of 4.4 to 25.96, from the 96th percentile to the 80th, and from an S&P+ rating of 20.8 to 12.4. In other words, the average team got worse by more than a touchdown each game.
That said, there is a pair of significant caveats.
First, we would expect any sample of teams coming off a top-10 season to regress, because there is almost nowhere to go but down. It’s easy to fall from the top 10. It’s very difficult to go up once you’re already there.
Nine of the 25 teams stayed in the top 10 while returning single-digit starters, a result that most Ohio State fans would view as a success in 2016.
Second, there are few teams that stand out as close fits for the 2016 Buckeyes. Ohio State under Urban Meyer isn’t too similar to Syracuse under Paul Pasqualoni or Missouri under Larry Smith. The Bucks are coming off sustained success, not just one season. The Bucks have a stable of talent, averaging a top-five 247Sports Composite recruiting class over the last four years. And those blue-chippers have seen playing time, as Ohio State has frequently routed opponents.
So which teams seem like the strongest comparisons to 2016 Ohio State?
USC 2006
Like Ohio State, USC had to replace a bevy of players who had won the national title two years prior and then came close to winning a second. USC under Pete Carroll was a regional hegemony, dominating recruiting in a talent-rich state and sending players to the NFL.
With four starters returning, the offense regressed significantly, dropping from 49 points per game to 30. Losing Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush and LenDale White was a big deal. Although the defense (five starters back) improved by about a touchdown, the change was not enough to prevent USC from regressing by an eight-point margin in S&P+.
However, USC was coming down from such a lofty perch that the eight-point regression meant a drop from first to third in the rankings.
After playing for the national title in three straight seasons, 2006 began USC’s three-year run of missing out on the title game because of dumb Pac-10 losses and then crushing Big Ten opponents in the Rose Bowl, making USC an interesting College Football Playoff what-if.
Florida State 1997 and 2001
Twice toward the end of its epic run, Florida State returned single-digit starters. The results were significantly different.
In 1997, Florida State returned five starters on offense and four on defense from a team that went unbeaten in the regular season and then had the bad luck to rematch with Florida in the national title game. The ‘Noles still improved, as according to S&P, they were the best team in the country. And for a second straight year, Florida kept the ‘Noles from winning the national title.
In 2001, an inexperienced team marked the end of Bobby Bowden’s dynasty. Coming off a season in which FSU lost the national title game to Oklahoma, the bottom fell out, as the ‘Noles lost four games and finished outside of the top four of the AP Poll for the first time since 1986.
The 2001 season illustrates the importance of replacing key assistants, as Florida State had lost assistant coach/consigliere Chuck Amato after 1999 and OC Mark Richt after 2000. The latter was replaced with a nepotistic hire, and the ‘Noles regressed significantly.
Florida 1999
In the late ‘90s, Florida’s offense had regressed as the Gators struggled to find a top quarterback to replace Danny Wuerffel, but the defense had improved under Bob Stoops.
In 1999, the Gators returned seven starters on offense, but only one on defense. And Stoops had taken the Oklahoma job, with Jon Hoke replacing him. Not surprisingly, the offense improved by a little, the defense regressed by a lot and the team went from 10-2 (two road losses to the teams that played in the BCS Championship) to 9-4 (two losses to Mike DuBose).
Oklahoma 2005
After two straight trips to the national title game, Oklahoma replaced 13 starters and stumbled through a four-loss season. Oklahoma found it especially difficult to replace QB Jason White, as Rhett Bomar struggled under center despite having Adrian Peterson behind him. Whereas White had averaged 8.2 yards per attempt and had a 35/9 TD/INT ratio, Bomar averaged only 6.6 and had a 10/10 ratio.
Nebraska 1995 and 1997
The best college football team that many of us have seen in our lifetimes returned only eight starters. It helped that the 1995 Huskers brought back Tommie Frazier, who was not considered a returning starter after he’d missed much of 1994 with an injury. It also helped to return Lawrence Phillips as the I-back and to add a true freshman named Ahman Green to the mix. Finally, it helped that Nebraska had a sui generis system, one that allowed the Huskers to put consistently excellent teams on the field despite not having recruiting advantages.
The ‘97 team was similar in that the Huskers returned very few starters, but they returned a quarterback, an I-back and the system. The ‘97 team also claimed the national title. However, the ‘97 team was slightly worse than the ‘96 team, despite the fact that the former went unbeaten and the latter lost twice. Sometimes you’re lucky; other times you’re not.
Ohio State 1997 and 2006
The ‘97 team returned five starters on offense (including the quarterbacks) and three on defense. But the defense continued to perform at an outstanding level (No. 2 according to defensive S&P in both ‘96 and ‘97) while the offense regressed (dropping from No. 6 to No. 20). Ohio State went from 11-1 to 10-3, adding losses to Penn State and Florida State to what was then an annual loss to Michigan.
According to S&P+, 2006 Ohio State regressed only slightly on offense (where it returned seven starters, including eventual Heisman winner Troy Smith) and defense (where it returned only two starters), but the 2006 team went 12-0 in the regular season before getting routed by the Bucks’ current coach in the national title game, whereas the 2005 team had lost tight games to eventual national champion Texas and eventual co-Big Ten champion Penn State before beating Charlie Weis’ Notre Dame comfortably in the Fiesta Bowl.
Ohio State’s defense in 2006 got worse, as one would expect when returning only two starters, but the schedule masked the regression until the final two games, when the Buckeyes gave up 80 points.
So what can we glean from Ohio State’s comparators?
- Returning a starting quarterback is a big deal. With the exception of USC 2006, which stayed in the top 10 despite replacing the quarterback, and Florida 1999, which dropped out despite returning Doug Johnson, every team in this group that returned a quarterback stayed in the top 10 and every team that replaced one did not. Thus, the fact that J.T. Barrett comes back should not be underrated.
- Key staff defections can be a disaster. In 1997, Florida State kept its run together despite replacing a bevy of starters because Bobby Bowden kept his coaches in place; the run fell apart in 2001 when Bowden had to replace 14 starters and Richt. Florida’s regression in 1999 when replacing Bob Stoops is another example of the importance of retaining key coordinators. Also, the quality of the replacement matters greatly. Thus, much will depend for Ohio State on whether new co-DC Greg Schiano is similar to Jeff Bowden or Jon Hoke, though longtime co-DC Luke Fickell returns as well.
- Recruiting softens the blow. Success tends to beget more success, and recruiting is typically the reason why. Ohio State’s 16 new starters will largely be four- and five-star recruits, which means a big drop is highly unlikely.
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