Maybe we shouldn’t assume the rules from conference realignment’s last round still apply

In the 2010-2014 round of realignment, analysts and fans figured out the math all the conferences were using: TV markets. The bigger the nearby city, the more valuable your athletics program. The one exception was that any school you added had to bring in a new TV market, not just increase your presence in a city already in your territory, because ... you know ... cable TV reasons.

From Rutgers making the Big Ten because of New York City to Georgia State and Tulane getting minor call-ups because of their vicinities, cable TV ruled everything. (Everything was silly.)

For some, it paid off. The Big Ten is richer than it had even hoped, thanks in part to its huge TV presence. For most, it didn’t end up moving the needle much. Conference USA -- which has schools in Birmingham, Charlotte, Houston, Miami and San Antonio -- is watching its TV money evaporate. (Not that C-USA ever had many really great options.)

I keep wondering if we fall back on that old math too frequently, with either a burst of Big 12 realignment coming soon or a huge wave coming everywhere in about a decade (or both). When none of us knows how the media business will work next year, let alone 10 or 20 years from now, why would we hang onto the last round’s assumptions?

Just one example. I’m not really making the case for Houston, but thinking about why the old math dictated we dismiss Houston. The Big 12 shouldn’t add Houston because the conference already has a cable TV presence in the state and in the area, we assumed five years ago.

But picking Houston would cut down on travel, add even more of a presence in a top-five metro area, add a booming football program willing to spend money, and so forth. It’d also make recruiting tougher in the state, but maybe that helps keep some Texas talent out of the SEC. Anyway, that stuff matters as much as what a collapsing cable industry thinks, right?

Do we trust the cable subscriber model enough to reject that and go get UConn because it’s near some other big towns?

FOX Sports’ Stewart Mandel took part of this idea to its extreme, writing that the future of the sport’s business isn’t about having lots of teams near cities, but about having lots of games viewers will pay money for. Ten years from now, he foresees a national, 24-school superconference that controls the Playoff.

That might seem far-fetched, but so does predicting there to be four or five big conferences that just add a couple teams and continue on about their business, scooping in money via conference TV networks. No one knows what any of this will look like in a decade.

All of this is a long way of saying that the Big 12 sitting tight is probably an OK idea for now. But we already knew that.

Bill C’s team previews have now reached the *power levels*, starting off with a Notre Dame that survived and is ready to contend. Some will see that and think, “Oh here we go, the annual Notre Dame hype train is leaving the station, listen to it go, ‘Choo choo choooooo,’” which just makes me wonder, “Are we supposed to say Notre Dame will finish unranked this year after three top-20 finishes in four years? One reason people are always saying Notre Dame will be good is that Notre Dame is usually good.” That’s exactly what I wonder when people start choo chooing at me.

Hi, I’d like to apologize for that outburst up above.

The early crooting rankings feature a whole bunch of teams we shouldn’t expect to see in the final editions. Bud Elliott is betting North Carolina can stay up there.

Speaking of Notre Dame, the No. 1 junior dual-threat QB committed way early to the Irish.

So ... where’s the evidence that Georgia’s new pro-UGA law stops any sort of actual problem?

Minnesota’s new coach did something unusual: put a number on how many wins he’s shooting for this year.

Being a Purdue fan sounds like the most miserable sports thing in the world.

Food at the new Falcons’ stadium will be, like, 1980s cheap. This goes for the SEC Championship, Peach Bowl and assorted other Chick-fil-A games, National Championship and various other events as well.

Tom Brokaw joked on Alabama. His Twitter mentions are now in shambles.

Why Russell Wilson’s NC State exit is back in the news with a vengeance.

Want more college football all the time? Let’s be friends on:

Also, sign up for our college football recruiting newsletter by Bud Elliott.