Below, let’s keep track of Week 7’s biggest games in a way similar to the College Football Playoff committee’s perspective, with the year’s first committee rankings set to release on Halloween.
Here’s how the College Football Playoff picture is changing in Week 7
Notes on all of Week 7’s games that could involve Playoff teams, updated throughout the weekend.
Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images
We have fun stuff and gameplay analysis elsewhere and later on. This post is only about how these results are likely to impact the Playoff picture.
Quick note:
- Rankings below are via CPI, a résumé-style rating similar to the RPI used in college basketball. It’s based on win percentage, opponent win percentage, and opponent’s opponent win percentage, meaning it lacks advanced context, but here’s the important part: it tends to correlate well with committee rankings by the end.
- Win projections below are via S&P+, a more advanced system that’s designed not to rank résumés, but to predict how strong a team is going forward.
- Final scores are in bold.
Upsets!
- No. 76 Syracuse (4-3) 27, No. 5 Clemson (6-1) 24: NC State is currently leading the ACC Atlantic! Clemson’s certainly not out of it yet, though.
- No. 64 Cal (4-3) 37, No. 7 Washington State (6-1) 3: Guess the Apple Cup might not be that big of a deal after all!
- No. 78 Arizona State (3-3) 13, No. 11 Washington (6-1) 7: I don’t even know what to make of this one. That was bizarre.
- No. 60 West Virginia (4-2) 46, No. 16 Texas Tech (4-2) 35: WVU can make a run at 8-4 or better, while TTU’s likely now projected around 6-6.
- No. 47 LSU (4-2) 27, No. 22 Auburn (5-2) 23: This puts 9-3 on the table for Ed Orgeron, two weeks after talk of firing him. Life’s funny.
- No. 45 Boise State (4-2) 31, No. 9 San Diego State (6-1) 14: SDSU’s out of the NY6 race for now.
- No. 18 Memphis (5-1) 30, No. 17 Navy (5-1) 27: Navy’s out of the NY6 race for now, while this boosts UCF (already beaten Memphis).
Quality wins available!
Week 7 doesn’t have any huge games, but in the following, both teams are projected to make bowls.
- No. 2 TCU (6-0) 26, No. 82 Kansas State (3-3) 6: A road win over a projected 6-6 team.
- No. 3 Miami (5-0) 25, No. 49 Georgia Tech (3-2) 24: The Canes remain the ACC Coastal favorite and add a W over a potential 6-6 team.
- No. 10 USC (6-1) 28, No. 53 Utah (4-2) 27: Utah should finish around 7-5.
- No. 14 Wisconsin (6-0) 17, No. 55 Purdue (3-3) 9: Purdue’s projected at least 6-6.
- No. 23 Michigan (5-1) 27, No. 37 Indiana (3-3) 20: This road win over a likely bowl team puts UM back on course for 8-4 or better, right around preseason expectations, albeit with a tough trip to Penn State next.
- No. 32 Stanford (5-2) 49, No. 38 Oregon (4-3) 7: Oregon’s still looking 7-5 or so, while Stanford’s shaking off a slow start for the fourth season in a row.
- No. 42 Oklahoma (5-1) 29, No. 58 Texas (3-3) 24: The week’s noisiest game is more important in the long run than right away, as OU still projects around 10-2. The Horns are likely to go bowling.
Playoff contenders with little to gain (probably)
The underdogs in these games didn’t enter Week 7 projected to finish .500 or better, though some of these would at least be road wins.
- No. 1 Georgia (7-0) 53, No. 109 Missouri (1-5) 28
- No. 6 Alabama (7-0) 41, No. 86 Arkansas (2-4) 9
- No. 12 NC State (6-1) 35, No. 98 Pitt (2-4) 17
- No. 13 Michigan State (5-1) 30, No. 66 Minnesota (3-3) 27
- No. 15 Ohio State (6-1) 56, No. 72 Nebraska (3-4) 14
- No. 25 Virginia (5-1) 20, No. 118 North Carolina (1-6) 14
- No. 29 Oklahoma State (5-1) 59, No. 127 Baylor (0-6) 16
The non-power New Year’s Six race
The committee’s top mid-major conference champion earns an automatic bid to one of the four big non-Playoff bowls. Four unbeaten non-powers entered Week 7, three of them from the American.
- No. 4 UCF (5-0) 63, No. 116 East Carolina (1-6) 21: Nothing for the Knights to gain, and their lofty CPI will slip after factoring in ECU.
- No. 24 USF (6-0) 33, No. 95 Cincinnati (2-5) 3: Nothing for USF to gain this week.
For the committee, it’s not about what you did this week.
It’s about what every team on your schedule does all year long. Beating a team in Week 7 that finishes .500-plus is better than beating a team that doesn’t, no matter where either team is ranked at kickoff. The same goes for a team that finishes in the Playoff’s Top 25.
The committee also looks at whether your offense and defense outscored your opponent’s average opponent, what the teams you’ve already played did in their own games, and a few other factors.
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