Texas-Oklahoma is one of college football’s most unpredictable rivalries, for real

Remember that saying about “throwing the records out,” when two rivals get together? College football is a wacky and wild sport, but the Red River Showdown, one of college football’s pre-eminent rivalry tilts, makes the statement true. It comes early enough in the calendar to get a good enough read on the two teams, but not too late where it gets lost in the shuffle of big games on Rivalry Week.

Last year, we tracked college football’s pre-eminent rivalry games for upsety-ness. Red River was of course on the list, and it was No. 2 in terms of upsets between 1986-2015. Using historic S&P+ rankings, we found that seven times in that span, a statistical upset has occurred in the Red River game.

The teams are also 13-13-1 against each other since 1990. It’s basically a toss-up.

Just in recent years, Oklahoma absolutely drubbed Texas 63-21 as only a three-point spread favorite in 2012 during Mack Brown’s penultimate season. And Texas stunned Oklahoma in 2015, beating a Sooners team that would end up going to the Playoff, 24-17, after UT entered the game at 1-4. The Longhorns mashed the Sooners for 313 yards on the ground and gave us an indelible Charlie Strong image.

Texas comes into Tom Herman’s first Red River, with the party line being that Herman gets his teams up to play rivalry games like few other coaches (the numbers support the narrative so far). Oklahoma’s licking its wounds thanks to a loss at home against Iowa State.

Still, Oklahoma should win, as it is clearly the better team overall, as well as a touchdown favorite against the spread. But:

A few weeks ago, this game would have looked like just another stepping stone on Oklahoma’s path toward a playoff spot. Back-to-back disasters on defense against Baylor and Iowa State have changed things, making Oklahoma look a lot more vulnerable than they did earlier in the year.

As to who will win the game? It’s pretty much anybody’s guess.