College football just experienced by far its nuttiest week of the 2017 season. It potentially shifted the national title race, and it definitely resulted in some shifts in the computer rankings.
130-team S&P+ rankings, in which 2 teams stand far above the rest
Based on predicted strength going forward, here’s how the country stacks up right now.
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Below are this week’s S&P+ ratings. You can find full unit rankings (and a yearly archive) at Football Outsiders. (Also, if the chart below isn’t loading friendly on your mobile device, that Football Outsiders link should work.)
Week 9 S&P+
Team | Rec. | S&P+ (Margin) | Rk | Last Wk | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 6-1 | 29.2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | 8-0 | 27.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Penn State | 7-0 | 22.1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Georgia | 7-0 | 21.1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Washington | 6-1 | 21.0 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| TCU | 7-0 | 20.0 | 6 | 13 | 7 |
| Wisconsin | 7-0 | 19.7 | 7 | 6 | -1 |
| Oklahoma State | 6-1 | 19.4 | 8 | 4 | -4 |
| Central Florida | 6-0 | 18.8 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Notre Dame | 6-1 | 18.7 | 10 | 12 | 2 |
| Miami-FL | 6-0 | 17.9 | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Auburn | 6-2 | 17.9 | 12 | 14 | 2 |
| Clemson | 6-1 | 17.9 | 13 | 10 | -3 |
| Oklahoma | 6-1 | 16.3 | 14 | 8 | -6 |
| South Florida | 7-0 | 14.8 | 15 | 18 | 3 |
| Stanford | 5-2 | 14.6 | 16 | 15 | -1 |
| Virginia Tech | 6-1 | 13.7 | 17 | 19 | 2 |
| Washington State | 7-1 | 13.1 | 18 | 22 | 4 |
| Mississippi State | 5-2 | 12.9 | 19 | 21 | 2 |
| Michigan State | 6-1 | 12.4 | 20 | 20 | 0 |
| NC State | 6-1 | 10.3 | 21 | 23 | 2 |
| Southern Miss | 5-2 | 9.8 | 22 | 31 | 9 |
| Georgia Tech | 4-2 | 9.4 | 23 | 27 | 4 |
| Iowa State | 5-2 | 9.3 | 24 | 28 | 4 |
| Fresno State | 5-2 | 9.2 | 25 | 60 | 35 |
| USC | 6-2 | 9.1 | 26 | 17 | -9 |
| Michigan | 5-2 | 9.0 | 27 | 16 | -11 |
| Louisville | 5-3 | 8.8 | 28 | 24 | -4 |
| LSU | 6-2 | 8.7 | 29 | 26 | -3 |
| West Virginia | 5-2 | 8.6 | 30 | 37 | 7 |
| Toledo | 6-1 | 8.6 | 31 | 47 | 16 |
| Florida Atlantic | 4-3 | 8.0 | 32 | 61 | 29 |
| Ohio | 6-2 | 7.9 | 33 | 54 | 21 |
| Wake Forest | 4-3 | 7.4 | 34 | 29 | -5 |
| Arkansas State | 4-2 | 7.3 | 35 | 51 | 16 |
| Colorado State | 6-2 | 7.1 | 36 | 35 | -1 |
| Arizona | 5-2 | 7.0 | 37 | 36 | -1 |
| SMU | 5-2 | 6.9 | 38 | 42 | 4 |
| Texas Tech | 4-3 | 6.7 | 39 | 32 | -7 |
| Florida State | 2-4 | 6.7 | 40 | 25 | -15 |
| Utah | 4-3 | 6.1 | 41 | 33 | -8 |
| Northern Illinois | 5-2 | 6.0 | 42 | 50 | 8 |
| Appalachian State | 5-2 | 5.9 | 43 | 39 | -4 |
| UTSA | 4-2 | 5.8 | 44 | 45 | 1 |
| Iowa | 4-3 | 5.7 | 45 | 38 | -7 |
| Marshall | 6-1 | 5.3 | 46 | 72 | 26 |
| Boise State | 5-2 | 4.9 | 47 | 41 | -6 |
| Purdue | 3-4 | 4.8 | 48 | 55 | 7 |
| UCLA | 4-3 | 4.7 | 49 | 58 | 9 |
| Houston | 4-3 | 4.5 | 50 | 43 | -7 |
| Oregon | 4-4 | 4.4 | 51 | 30 | -21 |
| Indiana | 3-4 | 4.4 | 52 | 44 | -8 |
| Virginia | 5-2 | 4.3 | 53 | 34 | -19 |
| Troy | 5-2 | 4.0 | 54 | 70 | 16 |
| Memphis | 6-1 | 3.9 | 55 | 49 | -6 |
| Western Michigan | 5-3 | 3.7 | 56 | 64 | 8 |
| Texas | 3-4 | 3.7 | 57 | 40 | -17 |
| Kansas State | 3-4 | 3.5 | 58 | 46 | -12 |
| Florida | 3-3 | 3.3 | 59 | 48 | -11 |
| Texas A&M | 5-2 | 2.8 | 60 | 53 | -7 |
| Navy | 5-2 | 2.6 | 61 | 57 | -4 |
| Minnesota | 4-3 | 2.3 | 62 | 62 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 5-2 | 2.2 | 63 | 63 | 0 |
| Miami-OH | 3-5 | 1.7 | 64 | 79 | 15 |
| Eastern Michigan | 2-5 | 1.5 | 65 | 73 | 8 |
| Syracuse | 4-4 | 1.3 | 66 | 59 | -7 |
| North Texas | 4-3 | 1.1 | 67 | 65 | -2 |
| Army | 6-2 | 0.9 | 68 | 71 | 3 |
| Northwestern | 4-3 | 0.3 | 69 | 69 | 0 |
| Tulane | 3-4 | 0.0 | 70 | 78 | 8 |
| Utah State | 4-4 | -0.1 | 71 | 89 | 18 |
| San Diego State | 6-2 | -0.1 | 72 | 52 | -20 |
| Nebraska | 3-4 | -0.2 | 73 | 74 | 1 |
| New Mexico | 3-4 | -0.2 | 74 | 84 | 10 |
| New Mexico State | 3-4 | -0.4 | 75 | 80 | 5 |
| Ole Miss | 3-4 | -0.4 | 76 | 56 | -20 |
| Western Kentucky | 5-2 | -0.5 | 77 | 76 | -1 |
| Missouri | 2-5 | -0.9 | 78 | 95 | 17 |
| Duke | 4-4 | -0.9 | 79 | 75 | -4 |
| Arizona State | 4-3 | -1.1 | 80 | 81 | 1 |
| UAB | 4-3 | -1.4 | 81 | 102 | 21 |
| Rutgers | 3-4 | -1.9 | 82 | 90 | 8 |
| Wyoming | 4-3 | -1.9 | 83 | 82 | -1 |
| Air Force | 3-4 | -2.3 | 84 | 85 | 1 |
| Louisiana Tech | 3-4 | -2.5 | 85 | 92 | 7 |
| Buffalo | 3-5 | -2.5 | 86 | 91 | 5 |
| Colorado | 4-4 | -2.7 | 87 | 68 | -19 |
| South Alabama | 3-4 | -2.9 | 88 | 101 | 13 |
| Vanderbilt | 3-4 | -3.0 | 89 | 86 | -3 |
| Arkansas | 2-5 | -3.2 | 90 | 67 | -23 |
| Kentucky | 5-2 | -3.7 | 91 | 77 | -14 |
| Boston College | 4-4 | -4.1 | 92 | 104 | 12 |
| Maryland | 3-4 | -4.2 | 93 | 83 | -10 |
| California | 4-4 | -4.2 | 94 | 87 | -7 |
| Tennessee | 3-4 | -4.6 | 95 | 66 | -29 |
| Massachusetts | 1-6 | -4.8 | 96 | 115 | 19 |
| Central Michigan | 4-4 | -4.8 | 97 | 111 | 14 |
| Florida International | 4-2 | -5.2 | 98 | 99 | 1 |
| Temple | 3-5 | -5.4 | 99 | 100 | 1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 3-5 | -5.6 | 100 | 93 | -7 |
| UNLV | 2-5 | -6.2 | 101 | 97 | -4 |
| Pittsburgh | 3-5 | -6.3 | 102 | 96 | -6 |
| North Carolina | 1-7 | -6.7 | 103 | 88 | -15 |
| UL-Monroe | 3-4 | -7.1 | 104 | 105 | 1 |
| Idaho | 2-5 | -8.2 | 105 | 98 | -7 |
| Illinois | 2-5 | -8.3 | 106 | 107 | 1 |
| Coastal Carolina | 1-6 | -8.4 | 107 | 114 | 7 |
| Cincinnati | 2-6 | -8.7 | 108 | 110 | 2 |
| Baylor | 0-7 | -8.8 | 109 | 94 | -15 |
| Akron | 4-4 | -9.6 | 110 | 112 | 2 |
| UL-Lafayette | 3-4 | -9.7 | 111 | 103 | -8 |
| Connecticut | 3-4 | -9.9 | 112 | 119 | 7 |
| Hawaii | 3-4 | -10.0 | 113 | 113 | 0 |
| Tulsa | 2-6 | -10.2 | 114 | 108 | -6 |
| Georgia State | 3-3 | -10.5 | 115 | 106 | -9 |
| Ball State | 2-5 | -11.5 | 116 | 109 | -7 |
| Nevada | 1-7 | -11.6 | 117 | 121 | 4 |
| Bowling Green | 1-7 | -13.2 | 118 | 118 | 0 |
| Oregon State | 1-6 | -13.5 | 119 | 117 | -2 |
| BYU | 1-7 | -13.8 | 120 | 116 | -4 |
| Old Dominion | 2-5 | -14.4 | 121 | 122 | 1 |
| Texas State | 1-6 | -16.2 | 122 | 123 | 1 |
| Charlotte | 1-7 | -16.2 | 123 | 126 | 3 |
| Kansas | 1-6 | -16.5 | 124 | 120 | -4 |
| San Jose State | 1-7 | -16.7 | 125 | 124 | -1 |
| East Carolina | 2-6 | -17.1 | 126 | 128 | 2 |
| Kent State | 2-6 | -19.9 | 127 | 125 | -2 |
| Rice | 1-6 | -20.3 | 128 | 130 | 2 |
| UTEP | 0-7 | -20.6 | 129 | 129 | 0 |
| Georgia Southern | 0-6 | -21.4 | 130 | 127 | -3 |
Two teams and a gulf
First things first: here’s your reminder that S&P+ is not a résumé tool and that there is not a loss penalty built into the equations. That’s why Ohio State, virtually perfect since its home loss to Oklahoma, assumed the top spot a week ago, and after another ridiculous performance (in this case, a blowout at Nebraska), the Buckeyes remain there, about two points ahead of Alabama.
What’s most interesting, however, is the gulf that happens after Bama. While Ohio State and Alabama are separated by 2.3 points, Bama and No. 3 Penn State are separated by 4.9 ... and Penn State and No. 13 TCU are separated by 4.7.
Even if the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide win out and reach the College Football Playoff with ease, which is far from a given, the race for the other two Playoff spots is going to be a damn battle royale. That becomes doubly true if the sport continues to disintegrate so beautifully, as it has the last two weeks. Oklahoma lost to Iowa State just a week ago, and now that’s already become about the fifth-most surprising result of October.
Things have gotten so weird that, well, seeing UCF at No. 9 doesn’t even seem weird.
Another week, another top conference
Iowa State followed up its OU upset by destroying Kansas. That result, plus the further phase-out of preseason projections, allowed Matt Campbell’s Cyclones to move into the S&P+ top 30. Since 2005, the best they have ever finished in S&P+ is 42nd. Campbell is ridiculous.
ISU’s rise (along with that of new No. 4 Oklahoma State) wasn’t enough to allow the Big 12 to keep its spot atop the conference averages. Among other things, ISU’s and OSU’s victims this week — Kansas and Baylor, respectively — fell as much or more than the Cyclones and Cowboys fell.
FBS conferences, ranked by average S&P+ rating:
- Big Ten (+7.5)
- Big 12 (+7.4)
- SEC (+6.8)
- ACC (+6.4)
- Pac-12 (+5.9)
- AAC (-0.9)
- MWC (-3.1)
- MAC (-4.0)
- Conference USA (-5.5)
- Sun Belt (-6.1)
The Big Ten is your new top conference, if by decimal points. And the further phase-out of preseason projections meant that the SEC fell a little bit further from the top spot.
It’s been a hell of a season thus far. And if the last two weeks are any indication, we’ve only just begun.
The week’s top movers (good)
- Fresno State (up 29 spots, from 89th to 60th)
- Arkansas State (up 25 spots, from 76th to 51st)
- Iowa State (up 20 spots, from 48th to 28th)
- Southern Miss (up 18 spots, from 49th to 31st)
- UTSA (up 18 spots, from 63rd to 45th)
- UCF (up 15 spots, from 24th to ninth)
- North Texas (up 15 spots, from 80th to 65th)
- Georgia State (up 14 spots, from 120th to 106th)
- Ohio (up 13 spots, from 67th to 54th)
- Marshall (up 13 spots, from 85th to 72nd)
Fresno State has now beaten three Mountain West opponents by at least 17 points and given Alabama a better fight than Arkansas, Ole Miss, or Vanderbilt. That’s enough to move first-year head coach Jeff Tedford’s Bulldogs into the top 60. Hell of a job done by the former Cal coach thus far.
Top movers (bad)
- Baylor (down 25 spots, from 69th to 94th)
- Nebraska (down 24 spots, from 50th to 74th)
- Arkansas (down 21 spots, from 46th to 67th)
- Kansas State (down 15 spots, from 31st to 46th)
- Florida State (down 13 spots, from 12th to 25th)
- UCLA (down 13 spots, from 45th to 58th)
- New Mexico (down 13 spots, from 71st to 84th)
- Vanderbilt (down 13 spots, from 72nd to 85th)
- BYU (down 12 spots, from 104th to 116th)
- Texas (down 11 spots, from 29th to 40th)
- Houston (down 11 spots, from 32nd to 43rd)
It looked like Matt Rhule’s ultra-young Baylor Bears were rebounding a bit from a wretched start; they lost to Oklahoma by only eight, then gave Kansas State a decent fight in Manhattan. Then they went to Stillwater.
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