Now that nearly every team has played at least seven games*, almost every FBS team’s data is standing on its own, and we have the clearest look yet at the college football landscape. The verdict: It’s kinda nuts. Either everybody stinks, or everybody’s a little bit good. And still, just two teams stand out from the pack.
130-team S&P+ rankings, where Penn State vs. Ohio State pits 2 of the country’s 3 best teams
The Big Ten is the least bad conference in college football, and two teams look like the least bad teams going forward.
Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images
Below are this week’s S&P+ ratings. You can find full unit rankings (and a yearly archive) at Football Outsiders. (Also, if the chart below isn’t loading friendly on your mobile device, that Football Outsiders link should work.)
* Only 10 of 130 teams have played only six, which means they’re the only 10 teams with even a little bit of the preseason projections still included in their ratings.
Week 9 S&P+
Team | Rec. | S&P+ (Margin) | Rk | Last Wk | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 6-1 | 29.2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | 8-0 | 27.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Penn State | 7-0 | 22.1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Georgia | 7-0 | 21.1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Washington | 6-1 | 21.0 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| TCU | 7-0 | 20.0 | 6 | 13 | 7 |
| Wisconsin | 7-0 | 19.7 | 7 | 6 | -1 |
| Oklahoma State | 6-1 | 19.4 | 8 | 4 | -4 |
| Central Florida | 6-0 | 18.8 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Notre Dame | 6-1 | 18.7 | 10 | 12 | 2 |
| Miami-FL | 6-0 | 17.9 | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Auburn | 6-2 | 17.9 | 12 | 14 | 2 |
| Clemson | 6-1 | 17.9 | 13 | 10 | -3 |
| Oklahoma | 6-1 | 16.3 | 14 | 8 | -6 |
| South Florida | 7-0 | 14.8 | 15 | 18 | 3 |
| Stanford | 5-2 | 14.6 | 16 | 15 | -1 |
| Virginia Tech | 6-1 | 13.7 | 17 | 19 | 2 |
| Washington State | 7-1 | 13.1 | 18 | 22 | 4 |
| Mississippi State | 5-2 | 12.9 | 19 | 21 | 2 |
| Michigan State | 6-1 | 12.4 | 20 | 20 | 0 |
| NC State | 6-1 | 10.3 | 21 | 23 | 2 |
| Southern Miss | 5-2 | 9.8 | 22 | 31 | 9 |
| Georgia Tech | 4-2 | 9.4 | 23 | 27 | 4 |
| Iowa State | 5-2 | 9.3 | 24 | 28 | 4 |
| Fresno State | 5-2 | 9.2 | 25 | 60 | 35 |
| USC | 6-2 | 9.1 | 26 | 17 | -9 |
| Michigan | 5-2 | 9.0 | 27 | 16 | -11 |
| Louisville | 5-3 | 8.8 | 28 | 24 | -4 |
| LSU | 6-2 | 8.7 | 29 | 26 | -3 |
| West Virginia | 5-2 | 8.6 | 30 | 37 | 7 |
| Toledo | 6-1 | 8.6 | 31 | 47 | 16 |
| Florida Atlantic | 4-3 | 8.0 | 32 | 61 | 29 |
| Ohio | 6-2 | 7.9 | 33 | 54 | 21 |
| Wake Forest | 4-3 | 7.4 | 34 | 29 | -5 |
| Arkansas State | 4-2 | 7.3 | 35 | 51 | 16 |
| Colorado State | 6-2 | 7.1 | 36 | 35 | -1 |
| Arizona | 5-2 | 7.0 | 37 | 36 | -1 |
| SMU | 5-2 | 6.9 | 38 | 42 | 4 |
| Texas Tech | 4-3 | 6.7 | 39 | 32 | -7 |
| Florida State | 2-4 | 6.7 | 40 | 25 | -15 |
| Utah | 4-3 | 6.1 | 41 | 33 | -8 |
| Northern Illinois | 5-2 | 6.0 | 42 | 50 | 8 |
| Appalachian State | 5-2 | 5.9 | 43 | 39 | -4 |
| UTSA | 4-2 | 5.8 | 44 | 45 | 1 |
| Iowa | 4-3 | 5.7 | 45 | 38 | -7 |
| Marshall | 6-1 | 5.3 | 46 | 72 | 26 |
| Boise State | 5-2 | 4.9 | 47 | 41 | -6 |
| Purdue | 3-4 | 4.8 | 48 | 55 | 7 |
| UCLA | 4-3 | 4.7 | 49 | 58 | 9 |
| Houston | 4-3 | 4.5 | 50 | 43 | -7 |
| Oregon | 4-4 | 4.4 | 51 | 30 | -21 |
| Indiana | 3-4 | 4.4 | 52 | 44 | -8 |
| Virginia | 5-2 | 4.3 | 53 | 34 | -19 |
| Troy | 5-2 | 4.0 | 54 | 70 | 16 |
| Memphis | 6-1 | 3.9 | 55 | 49 | -6 |
| Western Michigan | 5-3 | 3.7 | 56 | 64 | 8 |
| Texas | 3-4 | 3.7 | 57 | 40 | -17 |
| Kansas State | 3-4 | 3.5 | 58 | 46 | -12 |
| Florida | 3-3 | 3.3 | 59 | 48 | -11 |
| Texas A&M | 5-2 | 2.8 | 60 | 53 | -7 |
| Navy | 5-2 | 2.6 | 61 | 57 | -4 |
| Minnesota | 4-3 | 2.3 | 62 | 62 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 5-2 | 2.2 | 63 | 63 | 0 |
| Miami-OH | 3-5 | 1.7 | 64 | 79 | 15 |
| Eastern Michigan | 2-5 | 1.5 | 65 | 73 | 8 |
| Syracuse | 4-4 | 1.3 | 66 | 59 | -7 |
| North Texas | 4-3 | 1.1 | 67 | 65 | -2 |
| Army | 6-2 | 0.9 | 68 | 71 | 3 |
| Northwestern | 4-3 | 0.3 | 69 | 69 | 0 |
| Tulane | 3-4 | 0.0 | 70 | 78 | 8 |
| Utah State | 4-4 | -0.1 | 71 | 89 | 18 |
| San Diego State | 6-2 | -0.1 | 72 | 52 | -20 |
| Nebraska | 3-4 | -0.2 | 73 | 74 | 1 |
| New Mexico | 3-4 | -0.2 | 74 | 84 | 10 |
| New Mexico State | 3-4 | -0.4 | 75 | 80 | 5 |
| Ole Miss | 3-4 | -0.4 | 76 | 56 | -20 |
| Western Kentucky | 5-2 | -0.5 | 77 | 76 | -1 |
| Missouri | 2-5 | -0.9 | 78 | 95 | 17 |
| Duke | 4-4 | -0.9 | 79 | 75 | -4 |
| Arizona State | 4-3 | -1.1 | 80 | 81 | 1 |
| UAB | 4-3 | -1.4 | 81 | 102 | 21 |
| Rutgers | 3-4 | -1.9 | 82 | 90 | 8 |
| Wyoming | 4-3 | -1.9 | 83 | 82 | -1 |
| Air Force | 3-4 | -2.3 | 84 | 85 | 1 |
| Louisiana Tech | 3-4 | -2.5 | 85 | 92 | 7 |
| Buffalo | 3-5 | -2.5 | 86 | 91 | 5 |
| Colorado | 4-4 | -2.7 | 87 | 68 | -19 |
| South Alabama | 3-4 | -2.9 | 88 | 101 | 13 |
| Vanderbilt | 3-4 | -3.0 | 89 | 86 | -3 |
| Arkansas | 2-5 | -3.2 | 90 | 67 | -23 |
| Kentucky | 5-2 | -3.7 | 91 | 77 | -14 |
| Boston College | 4-4 | -4.1 | 92 | 104 | 12 |
| Maryland | 3-4 | -4.2 | 93 | 83 | -10 |
| California | 4-4 | -4.2 | 94 | 87 | -7 |
| Tennessee | 3-4 | -4.6 | 95 | 66 | -29 |
| Massachusetts | 1-6 | -4.8 | 96 | 115 | 19 |
| Central Michigan | 4-4 | -4.8 | 97 | 111 | 14 |
| Florida International | 4-2 | -5.2 | 98 | 99 | 1 |
| Temple | 3-5 | -5.4 | 99 | 100 | 1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 3-5 | -5.6 | 100 | 93 | -7 |
| UNLV | 2-5 | -6.2 | 101 | 97 | -4 |
| Pittsburgh | 3-5 | -6.3 | 102 | 96 | -6 |
| North Carolina | 1-7 | -6.7 | 103 | 88 | -15 |
| UL-Monroe | 3-4 | -7.1 | 104 | 105 | 1 |
| Idaho | 2-5 | -8.2 | 105 | 98 | -7 |
| Illinois | 2-5 | -8.3 | 106 | 107 | 1 |
| Coastal Carolina | 1-6 | -8.4 | 107 | 114 | 7 |
| Cincinnati | 2-6 | -8.7 | 108 | 110 | 2 |
| Baylor | 0-7 | -8.8 | 109 | 94 | -15 |
| Akron | 4-4 | -9.6 | 110 | 112 | 2 |
| UL-Lafayette | 3-4 | -9.7 | 111 | 103 | -8 |
| Connecticut | 3-4 | -9.9 | 112 | 119 | 7 |
| Hawaii | 3-4 | -10.0 | 113 | 113 | 0 |
| Tulsa | 2-6 | -10.2 | 114 | 108 | -6 |
| Georgia State | 3-3 | -10.5 | 115 | 106 | -9 |
| Ball State | 2-5 | -11.5 | 116 | 109 | -7 |
| Nevada | 1-7 | -11.6 | 117 | 121 | 4 |
| Bowling Green | 1-7 | -13.2 | 118 | 118 | 0 |
| Oregon State | 1-6 | -13.5 | 119 | 117 | -2 |
| BYU | 1-7 | -13.8 | 120 | 116 | -4 |
| Old Dominion | 2-5 | -14.4 | 121 | 122 | 1 |
| Texas State | 1-6 | -16.2 | 122 | 123 | 1 |
| Charlotte | 1-7 | -16.2 | 123 | 126 | 3 |
| Kansas | 1-6 | -16.5 | 124 | 120 | -4 |
| San Jose State | 1-7 | -16.7 | 125 | 124 | -1 |
| East Carolina | 2-6 | -17.1 | 126 | 128 | 2 |
| Kent State | 2-6 | -19.9 | 127 | 125 | -2 |
| Rice | 1-6 | -20.3 | 128 | 130 | 2 |
| UTEP | 0-7 | -20.6 | 129 | 129 | 0 |
| Georgia Southern | 0-6 | -21.4 | 130 | 127 | -3 |
Parity reigns ... sort of
Every conference currently has at least one team in the top 35. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that before.
And on the other end of the rankings, every conference has at least two teams ranked 90th or worse. Only the SEC doesn’t have at least one team ranked in the 100s ... and it still has four ranked 89th or worse.
This is a mess. A glorious mess. The very top of the rankings still mostly makes sense — Ohio State and Alabama are still the top two, and 19 of the top 21 teams are from power conferences — but no conference has much depth.
College football’s middle class almost doesn’t exist this year. Midway through the season, we’ve got Iowa State and Fresno State ahead of USC and Michigan, FAU and Ohio ahead of Florida State, and Buffalo and South Alabama ahead of Tennessee. You can scoff at this if you want, but I’m guessing you’ve watched the sport a little bit this year; almost every team has been both good and terrible at some point this year.
There is no best conference
With this overall strangeness, you would probably assume that there isn’t much separation on a conference-by-conference level. You would assume correctly.
FBS conferences, ranked by average S&P+ rating:
- Big Ten (+6.8)
- Big 12 (+6.2)
- SEC (+5.7)
- ACC (+5.7)
- Pac-12 (+4.9)
- AAC (-0.2)
- MWC (-2.3)
- MAC (-2.7)
- C-USA (-4.1)
- Sun Belt (-5.6)
Last year, there was a 17-point difference between the top conference (the SEC, at 8.9) and the bottom (Sun Belt, -8.3), and that was a downward shift from the previous years, when the SEC’s average was 10 or higher. This year, there’s only a 12.4-point range between the Big Ten and the Sun Belt.
Looking just at power conferences, last year there was a 3.3-point difference between the No. 1 SEC and No. 5 Big 12. This year, there’s a 1.9-point difference between No. 1 Big Ten and No. 5 Pac-12. Everybody’s good. Everybody stinks.
The week’s top movers (good)
- Fresno State (up 35 spots, from 60th to 25th)
- FAU (up 29 spots, from 61st to 32nd)
- Marshall (up 26 spots, from 72nd to 46th)
- Ohio (up 21 spots, from 54th to 33rd)
- UAB (up 21 spots, from 102nd do 81st)
- UMass (up 19 spots, from 115th to 96th)
- Utah State (up 18 spots, from 89th to 71st)
- Missouri (up 17 spots, from 95th to 78th)
- Toledo (up 16 spots, from 47th to 31st)
- Arkansas State (up 16 spots, from 51st to 35th)
- Troy (up 16 spots, from 70th to 54th)
So far this year, Fresno State has gotten manhandled by two top-10 teams (Alabama and Washington) and destroyed five lesser teams. Jeff Tedford’s Bulldogs beat three teams 120th or worse by a combined 134-31, and in the last two weeks they’ve beaten New Mexico 38-0 and SDSU 27-3.
I mean, you can take the time to be aghast at FS being in the top 25 if you want, but ... that’s as good a top-25 résumé as anybody else’s, yeah?
Top movers (bad)
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
- Tennessee (down 29 spots, from 66th to 95th)
- Arkansas (down 23 spots, from 67th to 90th)
- Oregon (down 21 spots, from 30th to 51st)
- SDSU (down 20 spots, from 52nd to 72nd)
- Ole Miss (down 20 spots, from 56th to 76th)
- Virginia (down 19 spots, from 34th to 53rd)
- Colorado (down 19 spots, from 68th to 87th)
- Texas (down 17 spots, from 40th to 57th)
- Florida State (down 15 spots, from 25th to 40th)
- North Carolina (down 15 spots, from 88th to 103rd)
When you haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in over three games, and when you haven’t scored more than 20 points since Week 2, there is no floor. Tennessee is learning that right about now.
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