Some scenarios that are difficult for college football coaches:
Tennessee’s and Nebraska’s hot-seat coaches are kicking off at the same time, on the road, as underdogs to teams they’re supposed to always beat
Around 11 p.m. ET on Saturday, we could see a whole lot of furious Huskers and Vols.


- When their job security is in serious danger
- When they’re underdogs against historical lessers
- When they’re on the road
Any of the three means you’re likely to have a challenging week. Road games are hard. Games against better teams are hard, especially when your team has the resource advantage. Worrying about whether a loss will get you fired is definitely hard.
The coaches at Tennessee and Nebraska have hit everything on that slot machine this week. Butch Jones’ Vols are at Kentucky, Mike Riley’s Huskers are at Purdue, and both of them are expected to lose their games, and, at some point, their jobs. Both are kicking off at 7:30 p.m. ET, too.
Jones is going to get fired if he loses in Lexington.
The Vols were 4.5-point underdogs on Thursday, while S&P+ gives them a 42 percent chance to beat Kentucky, a team Tennessee usually isn’t supposed to worry about.
Tennessee’s last game was a blowout loss to Alabama in a glorified scrimmage for the Crimson Tide. Tennessee was never going to fire Jones just to install an interim to take that beating, and the Vols also weren’t going to fire Jones right after failing to beat an unbeatable team.
But now, the heat’s very much on. SB Nation’s Steven Godfrey reported from Knoxville before the Bama game:
Sources indicated that if a move occurs, it would likelier be at the end of the regular season.
However, the trip to Kentucky right after Alabama now looms as a must-win. Essentially, Butch would have to win out after losing to Bama in order to have a chance.
Jones probably won’t get Lane Kiffin’d. But a loss will make Tennessee 3-5, which would be a death knell after a lousy finish in 2016. He’ll be gone within a few weeks.
Riley is probably fired if he loses at Purdue.
The Huskers were 5-point underdogs on Thursday. S&P+ says their chances are 33 percent.
Their record is 3-4. A loss to longtime Big Ten West doormat Purdue would be embarrassing, even though the Boilermakers are better this year. Going to 3-5 would be embarrassing. The Huskers will lose to No. 2 Penn State on Nov. 18, so a Week 9 loss would put a hard ceiling of 6-6 on this mediocre season.
Riley won nine games last year, which was nice, but he’s struggled to compete in big games. This will make two bad seasons out of three.
The Huskers just fired his boss and replaced him with the guy who hired Mike Leach at Washington State. A Nebraska legend is the country’s hottest coaching prospect.
What I’m saying is that Riley probably shouldn’t lose to Purdue.
These could be the two best open jobs this year, but they’re both hard.
Both programs have fallen on hard times. Nebraska stopped being Nebraska around 2003, and Tennessee hasn’t won more than eight games in a regular season since 2007.
It’s not easy to win at either place, in part because they’re in tough conferences and in part because they’re not very close to recruiting hotbeds. But their fanbases expect better than slightly above-average play, which Jones and Riley have sometimes provided.
But the SEC East and Big Ten West are considerably more winnable than the other halves of those leagues. Nebraska has recruited well in California and should keep doing that, and Tennessee has access to Florida and a lot of the Southeast’s superior recruiting terrains.
So, which job’s better? My colleague Bud Elliott says Nebraska:
Consider quality of life. You can raise your family at Nebraska if you win the West Division more often than not. Your kids can grow up with the same friends through middle and high school. You can be happy, not constantly on the hot seat, and not compared to Georgia, Florida, and Alabama on a daily basis. The chances you get a second contract at Nebraska are so much better.
What if you improve on Jones at Tennessee by a game per season? Instead of averaging 7-5 like Jones, maybe you average 8-4, with one SEC East title, but no conference championship during your five-year deal. Do you really think Tennessee’s boosters won’t be reaching out to the next hot commodity?
Every major program has outsized expectations, but between programs of similar resources, Nebraska’s seem much more realistic. Pick a place where a good job will be recognized as such. Pick Nebraska.
Tennessee has more recruiting upside than Nebraska and signs better players, but so do the teams throughout its league. If (once?) Jones and Riley are gone, it’ll be interesting to see which school lures the better successor.











