Notre Dame’s resurgent season has paved a clear path to the College Football Playoff. The No. 9 Irish just need to, uh, not lose any more games the rest of the season.
Why Notre Dame beating NC State will be especially impressive
The Wolfpack’s greatest strength counters the Irish’s.
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
The next team to take a crack is No. 14 NC State, Saturday in South Bend (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC). The Wolfpack have already beaten Florida State and Louisville, leaving them just a Clemson upset away from ACC Atlantic frontrunner status. They have their own non-zero playoff shot, an incredible thing to say about NC State at Halloween.
The Irish are 7.5-point favorites. S&P+ gives them a 74 percent chance to win. I think the Irish will win and cover, and that’ll be particularly impressive, given the context.
NC State is suited to slow down the Notre Dame run game.
In Week 2, UGA kept Notre Dame to a brutal 1.5 yards per carry. The Irish have been at least 3 yards better than that in every game, even against Michigan State’s top-10 run defense, usually somewhere between an 8- and 10-yard average.
The Wolfpack have a great defensive front. End Bradley Chubb is going to be an All-American, probably first-team. Chubb is equal parts dominant as a pass rusher (6.5 sacks) and run-stopper (13 stuffs at the line or behind it).
Chubb’s the best player on a defensive line with four talented seniors. Opposite him is end Kentavius Street, one of the best athletes in the sport. Tackles B.J. Hill and Justin Jones are the beef in the middle of an elite rush defense.
For the season, NC State’s allowed 3 yards per carry, the 14th-best mark in the country. The Wolfpack get lots of stuffs, and they limit big plays. Only four rushes against them have gone for 20 yards all season. None of their seven opponents has done better than a 4.04-yard average. The advanced stat S&P+ is less bullish on NC State’s run defense, but nobody’s going to question that it’s good.
Notre Dame’s going to be the first to breach that 4-yard average against the Wolfpack.
The Irish are second in the country in yards per carry, only behind Bryce Love’s Stanford, at just better than 7. S&P+ says the Irish have the best running game in the country, and that matches up well with the eye test.
The Irish are capable of running around you or through you. Left tackle Mike McGlinchey and left guard Quenton Nelson are studs, and featured back Josh Adams and QB Brandon Wimbush run behind them until the cows come home. Adams averages 9 yards per carry, Wimbush 8.
The Irish haven’t proved they can run on the elite of the elite. But Wimbush is a more developed passer now than he was at the start of the season, and that should keep NC State from totally selling out.
NC State will also be a good test for Notre Dame’s pass defense.
Pack quarterback Ryan Finley is good. Halfback/receiver hybrid Jaylen Samuels hasn’t been great as a receiver, catching a lot of balls for not a lot of yardage (just 7.2 yards per target). But others have emerged, particularly sophomores Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers and junior Stephen Louis.
The Wolfpack are 19th in Passing S&P+, 35th in yards per attempt, 24th in efficiency rating, 30th in completions longer than 20 yards, sixth in completion percentage, ninth in Passing Success Rate, and 85th in Passing IsoPPP, an explosiveness measure.
So, you get the idea there: A pretty efficient aerial game that does most of its work by making short completions and staying on schedule, using the pass to constrain defenses from loading up against the run.
Notre Dame’s secondary, led by nickelback Drue Tranquill, is elite. So is a veteran linebacking corps. The Irish have the country’s No. 4 pass defense by S&P+, one that made a light snack out of Sam Darnold and USC last week.
The Wolfpack’s passing offense is good. Notre Dame’s passing defense is better.
I think that’ll be the story on Saturday: NC State continuing to show that it’s good, and Notre Dame continuing to show that it’s great.
Notre Dame 31, NC State 17.
See More:
