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If Florida’s able to lose Jim McElwain without paying a big buyout, then the Gators just caught a lucky break

In football terms, the Gators might have just had the opposing punter fumble the snap in the end zone.

NCAA Football: Georgia at Florida
NCAA Football: Georgia at Florida
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

If Florida really does manage to part ways with Jim McElwain on the cheap, it just caught a huge break. Reports broke before and during Saturday’s blowout loss to Georgia that UF was looking into the possibility of firing McElwain for cause, which would mean not having to pay a big buyout due to something that happened beyond on-field team performance.

Then on Sunday, Florida announced McElwain was out. The Gators said “the two parties are currently negotiating terms of separation,” and UF might be succeeding:

Things in Gainesville are not good. Florida’s record sits at 3-4, and the program has little to no momentum.

McElwain was brought in to fix the offense, the primary reason why former coach Will Muschamp was fired. It has improved from 102nd to 105th to 81st in yards per play. In the land where fans grew up on Steve Spurrier, Danny Wuerffel, and Tim Tebow, that won’t cut it. Florida might improve on offense in 2018, but an enormous jump is hard to forecast given the lack of progress.

As McElwain began running out of Will Muschamp’s players, the defense started to show some cracks. Florida’s 2017 rushing defense has already allowed 1,042 yards on just 195 carries by opposing running backs, an average of 5.3 yards per carry.

McElwain’s record when an opponent scores more than 14 points sits at 5-12, and opponents are doing so with increasing frequency.

Meanwhile, division rival Georgia seems to be building the Death Star.

UGA’s copying the Nick Saban model under Kirby Smart, in the way Florida tried and failed under Muschamp and McElwain. Georgia’s recruiting class in 2017 was amazing, and the Bulldogs are primed to bring in another elite class in 2018, including the No. 1 QB in the nation, Justin Fields.

Yet amidst all the signs of the downturn, Florida was in a spot where it really could not fire McElwain for his performance.

He had won the admittedly awful SEC East in 2015 and 2016. Firing a coach who won two division titles in three years is just not done, no matter how uninspiring the product.

The Gators were going to have to sit tight as Georgia continued to put distance between itself and UF.

Except McElwain dropped the ball.

He implied that he and his players had faced death threats, then apparently refused to give UF any further information. The school declared that last part in an official statement, an unusual move. The for cause element could be based on some duty McElwain, as a university employee, might’ve had to report known threats against students (or, perhaps as likely, a duty to not lie about such things in his official capacity).

It’s unclear if Florida decided it’s legally in the clear to fire him for reasons beyond just wins and losses ...

... but it’s also possible that Florida negotiated a lesser buyout.

Now Florida might’ve gotten to part with him on the cheap, then go after a new coach. UF will have a lot of money to spend if it isn’t tied down with paying the former head coach a huge buyout figure.

This almost never happens.

Schools don’t just get to part with their coaches on the cheap, avoid what was sure to be another year of program stagnation, and go after their next targets with extra money.

And when you factor in that Florida is almost certainly going to be the best available job opening, you appreciate the size of the break the Gators might’ve just caught.

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