Nobody’s a sure thing in the College Football Playoff race, but Miami now has the best odds

Let’s face it: Week 12 of the college football season is a bit underwhelming. After two jam-packed weekends, we basically get one game likely to affect the national title race (Michigan at Wisconsin), and it’s in Saturday’s early time slot. The top two teams in the CFP rankings are playing FCS opponents.

This is a pretty good time, however, to step back and take stock. Two wild weekends have changed the title picture a good amount, and even if we’re probably not looking at much movement after Saturday, we can still gird up our loins for what’s to come.

Using S&P+ win probabilities (which you can find in the Football Study Hall stat profiles), let’s walk through which of our national title contenders are most likely to still be in good shape three weeks from now and who’s got the toughest remaining slate.

Bama gets Mercer on Saturday (noon ET on SEC Network) as a tune-up for a winner-take-all Iron Bowl. The Auburn-Alabama winner will face Georgia for the SEC title.

With two top-10 teams potentially remaining on the docket, both away from Tuscaloosa, the Tide’s odds of finishing unbeaten are not spectacular. S&P+ gives them only a 54 percent chance of beating Auburn and, should the occasion arise, a 60 percent chance of beating Georgia.

The result is only a 33 percent chance of finishing 13-0 and a 67 percent chance of presenting a very confusing résumé to the CFP committee. Bama could still make it with one loss and no conference title, but it wouldn’t be a sure thing.

Miami doesn’t necessarily have a gimme this weekend. After brilliant performances against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, the Hurricanes do have to avoid a hangover against 6-4 Virginia (noon ET on ABC). S&P+ gives them an 83 percent chance of beating Virginia and an 82 percent chance of beating Pitt.

They are healthy favorites in both games, and if they reach the finish line 11-0, they’ll still have to beat Clemson in the ACC title game. S&P+ would give them a 54 percent chance of beating Clemson on a neutral field.

With a win over Notre Dame already, Miami can probably afford a regular season loss, but this next undefeated team doesn’t have anything like that on its résumé.

The good news: It’s safe to say Wisconsin controls its destiny now. The Badgers are up to fifth in the CFP rankings, and considering No. 2 Clemson and No. 3 Miami will face each other, they would absolutely hop the loser of that game, especially with wins over two well-regarded teams (a No. 24 Michigan that’d only fall slightly outside the rankings, then probably No. 9 Ohio State in the Big Ten title game) down the stretch.

The bad news: S&P+ loves Ohio State, so UW’s odds of getting to 13-0 aren’t great. They have a 72 percent chance of getting by Michigan on Saturday — UW’s odds might be artificially high, considering the Wolverines have looked better since installing Brandon Peters at quarterback — and an 81 percent chance of winning at Minnesota to finish the year. They would get only about 42 percent odds of beating OSU on a neutral field, though.

Add that up, and you’re looking at only about a one-in-four chance of finishing 13-0.

The CFP committee deemed Clemson’s résumé more impressive than Oklahoma’s. That was confusing, considering that the Tigers have one home win against a CFP top-15 team, while OU has three (and two were on the road).

Regardless, both control their destinies, and Clemson’s path is totally defined: beat The Citadel on Saturday (12:20 p.m. ET, ACC Network affiliates), win at South Carolina next Saturday (73 percent chance), beat Miami (46 percent chance), and you’re in. S&P+ says there’s about a one-in-three chance of that happening.

With wins over Oklahoma State and TCU in back-to-back weeks, Oklahoma’s résumé is sparkly, and its path to the Playoff is clear: beat Kansas on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), and you’ll clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game. Beat WVU next Saturday in Norman, and you’ll face either TCU or Oklahoma State in Jerry World.

WVU is solid, but the odds of the Sooners getting to 11-1 are good. Once there, though, they’ll have to beat one of two excellent teams (probably TCU) for a second time. Without a Big 12 title game, OU would almost certainly be in the CFP at 11-1 — those three top-15 wins would be quite the card to play. As it stands, the Sooners’ odds are diminished dramatically by having to play a conference title game.

What do you think about that, Barry Switzer?

Agreed, Coach. Because of the title game, OU’s odds of finishing with one loss drop from 66 percent to about 36 percent because they have only about a 55 percent chance of winning said game.

Of course, if the Sooners continue to play like they have, maybe the odds are a bit better than that. OU’s hot.

Georgia simply didn’t play well against Auburn, and while that offers hope in a roundabout way — if the Dawgs get a rematch, they could play much better! — it also means their CFP odds are diminished drastically.

UGA now has to beat Kentucky at home on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) and win at Georgia Tech next Saturday. S&P+ says the Dawgs have an 87 percent chance against the Wildcats and 69 percent chance against the Yellow Jackets.

From there, there’s a 54 percent chance they face Alabama (against whom they’d have a 40 percent chance of winning in Atlanta) and a 46 percent they play Auburn (against whom they’d have a 50 percent chance).

Add all that up, and you get two key numbers: UGA has a 46 percent chance of winning the SEC but only about a 27 percent chance of doing so at 12-1.

Plus, among the three P5 unbeatens, there’s only a 23 percent chance that more than one finishes with zero losses and only a 57 percent chance that more than one finishes with one loss.

There’s a very solid chance we end up dipping into the two-loss pool, in other words. So let’s work our way through those as well.

Gus Malzahn’s Tigers cleared the first of three rugged hurdles with aplomb. After ULM on Saturday (noon ET, ESPN2), they still have to beat Alabama (46 percent) and, with a win there, Georgia again (50 percent) to get to 11-2. They are up to sixth in S&P+, but this is still a tall task.

With Navy this Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC) and a trip to Stanford next Saturday, the Irish have a decent shot of finishing 10-2. But they have now missed out on two opportunities for big wins (they lost to Georgia in September and got rocked by Miami last week), and “We beat USC and only lost by 33 to Miami!” isn’t much of a title claim, especially with no conference title game.

If Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes win out, only Auburn could have a better two-loss résumé. After facing Illinois on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC), they travel to Ann Arbor to take on improving Michigan (S&P+ says they’d have a 69 percent chance of winning), then — with a division title clinched along the way — head to Indianapolis to meet Wisconsin (58 percent). Even the Buckeye-loving S&P+ gives them only a two-in-five chance of 11-2.

PSU’s remaining schedule is pretty easy — the Nittany Lions get Nebraska at home on Saturday (4 p.m. ET, FS1), then Maryland in College Park. Their odds of reaching 10-2 are very good. But with an almost 0 percent chance of winning the Big Ten East and without a single win over an S&P+ top 50 team, they aren’t going to have a CFP cause unless a lot of other teams lose.

You have to start getting into “If Ohio State loses to Michigan but beats Wisconsin...” and “If Auburn beats Alabama but loses to a two-loss Georgia...” scenarios to build a Playoff case, but if things fall apart, the Trojans could be well-positioned. They host UCLA on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, ABC), then finally get a week off before facing either Stanford (57 percent chance), Washington State (29 percent), or Washington (14 percent) in the Pac-12 Championship.

USC has a 77 percent chance of beating UCLA and basically a 51 percent chance of winning the conference title.

TCU’s path is clear: win at Texas Tech on Saturday (noon ET, FS1) and beat Baylor at home, and you get a conference title shot, almost certainly against OU. Of course, Texas Tech isn’t bad (S&P+ gives the Horned Frogs only a 64 percent chance of winning), and after getting by Baylor (89 percent), they would only have about a 46 percent chance of beating OU.

The odds of all that happening? About one-in-four. And then they would need chaos to move into the top four.

OSU needs a TCU loss to reach the conference championship. The Cowboys’ odds of getting by Kansas State and Kansas at home are quite good, but they have only about a 1-in-3 chance of reaching the Big 12 title game. Once there, they’d have about a 47 percent chance of getting by OU.

Wazzu is two wins away from its first conference title since 2002. The bad news: those would be at Washington next Saturday (S&P+ odds: 26 percent), then vs. USC in Santa Clara (48 percent). Easier said than done.

Washington falling to 18th was jarring, and it leaves the Huskies with a nearly impossible task. They need to beat Utah and Washington State, have Stanford lose to Cal, and beat USC to finish with anything close to a Playoff résumé. There’s a 9 percent chance.

And even if it happens, the Huskies would need countless other things to happen to reach the top four.

The CFP committee has proved it could not give two craps about an undefeated UCF.