Alabama and Ohio State are poised to be the subjects of a College Football Playoff selection debate, as long as the Buckeyes finish off a win against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday night. But that game isn’t the only one that matters, because Bama’s schedule strength is still changing elsewhere.
How Fresno State’s Mountain West title game loss could hurt Bama’s Playoff case
Bama had a ranked win in its back pocket, but Fresno’s loss on Saturday could change that.
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Selection committee chairman Kirby Hocutt said after the rankings came out that there wasn’t much separation between teams 5 and 8, i.e. between Alabama and Ohio State.
Georgia, Oklahoma, and Clemson are all in the field for sure after title game wins, so Ohio State’s Big Ten title game win against Wisconsin sets up an OSU-Bama debate.
Fresno State, which was 1-11 last year, could be a major factor in that choice.
Jeff Tedford’s Bulldogs were 9-3 heading into the Mountain West title game against Boise State on Saturday. They entered this week at No. 25. And they lost, 17-14.
Way back in Week 2, then-No. 1 Alabama destroyed then-unranked Fresno State, which had gone 1-11 the year prior. It was an entirely forgettable game. Bama won, 41-10.
Fresno’s loss in the MWC Championship means the Bulldogs probably won’t be ranked. There’s some small chance Fresno State stays ranked anyway.
The committee takes ranked wins into account in picking teams.
Specifically, wins against teams ranked in the Selection Sunday committee top 25.
- Ohio State is 3-1 against ranked teams. The Buckeyes lost to Oklahoma and beat Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan State.
- If Fresno falls, Bama’s record will come out 2-1 against ranked teams, with a loss to Auburn and wins against LSU, and Mississippi State.
Debate the quality — Ohio State has the highest-ranked win of the group, while Bama doesn’t have a second loss to an unranked team — but Bama could have matched OSU in top-25 record. That it didn’t happen might be a blow on Sunday.
Fresno losing might hurt Washington, too.
Washington entered the weekend at No. 13, just outside the cutoff for the committee’s big non-Playoff games. With TCU and Stanford losing, the Huskies could be in great shape. But they’d have gotten a boost from Fresno winning, as they too beat the Bulldogs earlier in the season. We’ll see how much it matters.
Oh, and Florida State contributed to Bama’s cause at the buzzer.
Record against .500-plus teams is another committee schedule metric.
- Bama’s went to 7-1 after FSU beat UL-Monroe on Saturday to get to 6-6.
- Ohio State’s is 5-2 after the Big Ten title win.
The committee could use its own eye test, or it could choose to put extra emphasis on specific games.
Who knows. But Fresno State’s relevance in this debate sure is something.
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