It’s the first week in November, and Miami is unbeaten. This is not novel for those of us who became college football fans when the Canes ruled the world, but it is unusual based on recent history. Miami has never made the ACC Championship and has not finished in the AP top 10 since 2003, Larry Coker’s third year as head coach.
Why Miami’s cardiac Canes won’t keep riding close wins to the Playoff
Let’s look at a history of teams that have reached November in the top 10 despite a bunch of scares.
Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Miami’s 7-0 start has not triggered much in the way of national title talk. The Canes are 10th in the first Playoff rankings, behind six one-loss teams. They are closer to UCF — the highest-rated Group of 5 team — than they are to No. 1. S&P+ would pick two-loss Auburn to beat Miami on a neutral field.
Part of the reason for Miami’s soft ranking is that it has a back-loaded schedule. With Florida State’s demise, Miami has not yet played a ranked team and only two — (Toledo and Georgia Tech — with winning records.
The other part is that Miami has not beaten its opponents in an impressive fashion.
Miami enters the Virginia Tech game on a four-game streak in which it has won each time by one score. The Canes needed last-minute drives to beat Florida State and Georgia Tech, then had to hold onto late leads against Syracuse and North Carolina.
It seems as if most seasons feature a team with Miami’s profile — a team that wins a bunch of close games and provokes the perennial debate between the camps of “your record is all that matters” and “how you win has predictive value and should be a part of the rankings.”
So how have teams that entered November with Miami’s profile fared when we get into the best part of the season?
We are looking for unbeaten teams that were in the top 10 of the first AP poll of November and had won at least three one-score games.
The first team on our list is one near and dear to Canes fans...
The archetype for a team that wins close and just keeps winning close. Ohio State entered November having beaten Cincinnati, Wisconsin, and Penn State by a combined 15 points. This was just the start for a team that made winning tight games into an art form, as the Bucks beat Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, and, um, Miami by one score apiece to win the national title.
It should be noted that Ohio State entered November having beaten a pair of then-ranked opponents, unlike this Miami team.
Among the many ways that college football was nutty in 2007 is that the two unbeaten teams entering November were Ohio State and Kansas. Jayhawks football might be known these days for creating drama as to whether it will end a game with positive yardage, but a decade ago, Mark Mangino’s team was a legitimate contender.
The ‘07 Jayhawks entered November having won one-score games against Kansas State, Colorado, and Texas A&M. Kansas picked up steam, rolling through its next three opponents — including a famous 76-39 win against Nebraska -- before losing a No. 2 vs. No. 3 matchup with Missouri.
The Jayhawks finished with an Orange Bowl win over Virginia Tech, completing a 12-1 campaign that set the stage for, well, not much.
Like a 13- or 17-year cicada, Iowa comes around every now and again to ride success in close games to contention. In 2009, the Hawkeyes beat Northern Iowa by one point, Arkansas State by three, a Rich Rodriguez-led Michigan by two, and Michigan State by two. Iowa entered November at 9-0, at which point its luck deserted it in one-score losses to Northwestern and Ohio State.
Like Kansas, Iowa finished with a win in the Orange Bowl before laying eggs and going into hiding for six seasons.
Our memory of the 2010 champions starts with the unstoppable Cam Newton, but this team was far from dominant, as evidenced by five one-score wins headed into November. The success in close games continued to the end, as Auburn eked out a comeback in Tuscaloosa and then beat Oregon in the national title game on a field goal in the closing seconds.
Like 2002 Ohio State, 2010 Auburn offers a path for Miami, albeit with the caveat that Auburn had beaten three then-ranked opponents entering November.
A three-point win over Purdue. A seven-point win over Michigan. A seven-point win over Stanford. A three-point win over BYU. Those victories put Notre Dame in title contention. The Irish would need to pass one more close call, an overtime win over Pitt in which the Panthers missed a potential winning field goal.
They made the title game, and then Alabama — which had lost to Johnny Manziel and had a close call in the SEC Championship, but had otherwise won like a true contender should — did unspeakable things.
The Canes play Notre Dame next week. Wouldn’t it be amusing if Miami aped the 2012 Irish by winning a tight game that Notre Dame fans would call lucky? (Hint: The answer is “yes, it would.”)
Note: 2012 Ohio State was also unbeaten with four wins in one-score games at the start of November, but the Buckeyes were on probation and this tough to compare this Miami team. They’d also beaten two eventual 10-game winners in UCF and Nebraska.
The 2013 Noles dominated all who came before them, then won a national title game in which they were finally challenged. The numbers proclaimed FSU an elite well before the AP poll did.
A year later, Florida State was notorious for sneaking out of tight situations. Headed into November, FSU had won three one-score games. This was only the start of the dramatics, as the Noles’ last four wins (including a four-point decision over Miami) were by one score. This time, the numbers were warning the Noles about playing with fire.
These close shaves led Florida State — the only unbeaten team — to be the No. 3 seed in the inaugural Playoff, where the Noles were destroyed by an Oregon that’d lost a game, but otherwise won comfortably.
Coming off a season where the Horned Frogs barely missed a spot in the Playoff, much was expected of TCU in 2015. Because of narrow wins over Minnesota, Texas Tech, and Kansas State, TCU had dropped from preseason No. 2 to No. 5 at the start of November.
The skepticism turned out to be justified, as TCU lost to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in November. A season that started with Playoff dreams ended in a particularly memorable Alamo Bowl.
According to S&P+, the two best teams in the Big Ten in 2015 were Ohio State and Michigan. Neither played in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Instead, the conference title came down to a matchup between the kings of the close win -- Michigan State and Iowa. Headed into November, the Spartans had won four one-score games, and the Hawkeyes had won two. Michigan State would add one more to that total (as well as a one-point loss to Nebraska) and Iowa would add three when the two teams met in Indianapolis. With each team having won almost half of its games in narrow fashion, it was a foregone conclusion that the teams would play a nail-biter in Indianapolis, with the Spartans winning 16-13 on a 22-play, 80-yard drive.
Post-script: They lost their bowl/Playoff games by a combined 83-16.
Miami does not need to look far for an example of a team riding close wins in September and October to a national title. Clemson won five one-score games to an 8-0 record at the start of November. The Tigers’ good fortune betrayed them in a one-point loss to Pitt, but they would rebound to win out, including tight wins over Virginia Tech and Alabama to win the school’s second national title.
Again, Clemson beat a pair of ranked teams before November and played almost nothing but bowl-eligible teams.
So what is the lesson for Miami?
It’s entirely possible to win a national title on the back of close wins.
However, Miami would be charting a new course if it does so because its close wins have not been against top teams.
Miami would have to do something new, but the program’s rise to prominence in the early ‘80s was something new to begin with, so why not?
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