Bowls already involve enough awkward circumstances before you remember the pointy football. Because of the coaching carousel, some teams are playing with interim coaches. Because of the new recruiting calendar, some teams are trying to balance between prepping for their 13th game and, you know, determining the future of the program.
Louisiana Tech’s Frisco Bowl blowout of SMU was so strange, it’s a wonder Will Muschamp wasn’t involved
Only one man is supposed to be capable of participating in games so drastically defined by turnovers luck.
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Louisiana Tech and SMU spent much of Wednesday inking their futures, then went out on Wednesday evening and put on one of the strangest displays of football you can imagine.
At halftime of the inaugural Frisco Bowl on Wednesday, SMU had outgained the Bulldogs by 10 yards, 203-193. They had held Tech to 3.3 yards per carry on the ground, and they had controlled the ball, snapping the ball 44 times to Tech’s 32.
They also trailed 42-10. They would end up losing 51-10.
Within their first 11 snaps, the Mustangs lost a fumble and threw two interceptions. They threw a third interception early in the second quarter. Because of turnovers (and a great kick return), Tech started each of its first four drives in SMU territory and returned two interceptions for touchdowns. Astounding.
There’s “tilting the field,” and there’s this: SMU’s average starting field position in the first half was its own 23; Tech’s was SMU’s 41.
You will rarely see a game so dramatically defined by turnovers or return scores, and when you do, Will Muschamp is usually involved.
Some quick turnovers math:
- On average, about 22 percent of passes defensed are picks, a ratio of one interception to about 3.5 breakups. Louisiana Tech defensed four SMU passes, which would have resulted in 0.9 expected interceptions. In reality, Tech intercepted three passes. SMU defensed two, so you would have expected about 0.4. SMU intercepted none.
- SMU managed to fumble six times, losing three of them. On average, about 51 percent of a team’s fumbles are recovered by the other team, so this one isn’t weird — other than the fact that SMU had fumbled only seven times in 12 games so far.
- Expected turnover margin: Louisiana Tech plus-3.5. Actual turnover margin: Louisiana Tech plus-6, a difference of 2.5.
On average, each turnover is worth about 4.5 points in field position lost by Team A and gained by Team B. So 2.5 turnovers’ worth of luck is worth about 10 to 13 points.
Tech took things a step further with Amik Roberton’s 45-yard pick six, Darryl Lewis’ 23-yard pick six, and Secdrick Cooper’s 31-yard interception return that set up a short score. Tech also started drives at the SMU 25, 30, and 31 after fumbles.
Mercy.
Tech’s yardage margin (plus-63) was nearly as high as its scoring margin (plus-41), and if you gave SMU a clean slate tonight and started over, you might get a completely different result. But wins all look the same in the win column.
For Skip Holtz’s Bulldogs, this win assured a fourth consecutive winning season, and you can forgive them for not feeling too bad about getting some breaks.
Tech was 1-4 in games decided by one possession this fall, and a couple of bounces in the regular season could have made the difference between a ho-hum campaign and a division title run. And the Bulldogs did enter the game tied for a decent No. 31 in takeaways, so it’s not like these were all merely friendly bounces.
On the other sideline, this was probably not how Sonny Dykes preferred his SMU tenure to begin. But bowl results are not even slight predictors of future success. So he has that going for him.
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