Hugh Freeze’s scandal-ridden departure leaves Ole Miss in the market for a new head football coach. Betting markets have settled on a long list of potential fits, of which some sound good and some sound weird. We’re probably a decent ways from Ole Miss hiring someone, which means there’ll be plenty of time to speculate. And when there’s time, big names from big schools tend to find their way into the discussion.
One number that shows why Ole Miss’ Hugh Freeze replacement might not be a splash hire
Poaching Power 5 head coaches isn’t easy.
Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
In the last three coach change cycles, an average of two Power 5 teams per year have hired away head coaches from power conference peers.
See these notes from Associated Press reporter Ralph D. Russo:
Getting head coaches out of power conference jobs is difficult. Most of the programs that have successfully wooed them away in recent years are traditional blue-bloods.
In cases where they haven’t been, there’s been something unique at play. Wisconsin hired Paul Chryst away from Pitt a few years ago, but Chryst was a former Wisconsin assistant who had a deep love for UW and a close relationship with athletic director Barry Alvarez, his former boss. Chryst replaced Gary Andersen, who left for Oregon State for reasons that didn’t seem to have much to do with the prestige of his new job.
If you can’t hire away a Power 5 head coach, you’re not doomed to scraps.
There are plenty of capable assistants at power schools, and there are plenty of rising head coaches in the mid-majors. Texas and Minnesota hired Group of 5 head coaches Tom Herman and P.J. Fleck, for instance. Cal hired Wisconsin defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox. All of those hires still seem like perfectly good (or better) ideas.
But when fans and boosters are plotting out their dream candidates, it’s not hard for Power 5 head coaches to levitate to the top of their lists. Those are hard to get.
Ole Miss might be able to get a big name by throwing around tons of cash.
The SEC is a desirable place to coach. The Ole Miss job comes with a guaranteed-to-be-fervent fanbase. And maybe Ole Miss could come up with a large enough sum of money to hire away some rising head coach from a Power 5 peer. There are way worse jobs in college football, the Power 5, and even the SEC.
But Ole Miss has an NCAA problem, and that makes hiring big harder.
Freeze might have survived a burgeoning escort scandal if he weren’t also under pressure from an ongoing NCAA probe. But his resignation wasn’t really about the NCAA, and those issues still exist. It’s going to be hard to get a good candidate to sign on before that case concludes. And if the case ends but leads to long-term sanctions against the football program, that won’t be a superb selling point either.
If Ole Miss lands someone at the top of everyone’s wishlist, it won’t be stunning. But it’ll be at least a little bit surprising, given recent coach-hiring history and the program’s current troubles.
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