College Football

2017’s projected 130-team college football rankings, with a new No. 2 team

The S&P+ numbers are now updated to account for offseason roster developments.

Aug 24, 2017, 12:52 PM UTC

NCAA Football: Florida State Spring Game

Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

Back in February, as the massive college football preview series was getting underway, I posted my annual preseason S&P+ projections, which are based on three primary factors: returning production, recruiting, and recent history. I built win projections off of these ratings and used them throughout the preview series.

Now comes the final step in the projections process: changing all the numbers at the end of the offseason! Injuries, suspensions, and other forms of attrition have changed the returning production figures over the course of the spring and summer, as has the return of certain players from injury, and late commitments have slightly changed the recruiting numbers.

So as the final step before we bid adieu to the eight-month college football offseason, let’s take one final stab at preseason S&P+ rankings. Updated win projections will follow on Friday.

(You can find a complete version of these projections, complete with last year’s ranking and the rankings changes since February, here. My own personal power rankings are here, with links to all 130 team previews.)

2017 S&P+ projections

Team	Projected 2017 S&P+	Rk	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Alabama	33.9	1	41.1	5	7.2	1
Florida State	26	2	41.9	3	15.9	8
Ohio State	25.5	3	38.8	14	13.3	3
LSU	23.1	4	38.8	13	15.7	7
Oklahoma	22.9	5	48.5	1	25.6	40
Clemson	22.5	6	36.5	29	14	6
USC	22	7	41.2	4	19.1	14
Auburn	20.7	8	38.3	17	17.6	11
Penn State	20.2	9	41.1	6	20.8	18
Michigan	20.1	10	33.7	40	13.6	5
Wisconsin	19.5	11	33.1	44	13.6	4
Stanford	19.1	12	35.2	35	16.1	9
Washington	18.2	13	39.9	9	21.7	20
Louisville	18	14	37.7	20	19.7	15
Florida	18	15	30.9	59	12.9	2
Notre Dame	15.3	16	37.1	25	21.8	21
Texas	14.5	17	39.4	11	24.9	37
Miami-FL	14.4	18	32.4	51	18	12
TCU	13.4	19	37.6	22	24.2	33
Oklahoma State	13.3	20	43.1	2	29.8	67
Georgia	13.2	21	31.3	55	18.1	13
Texas A&M	13.1	22	35.5	33	22.4	22
Ole Miss	12.3	23	38.4	16	26.1	43
Virginia Tech	11.1	24	28	76	16.9	10
Tennessee	10.3	25	36.1	31	25.8	42
NC State	10	26	32.6	48	22.6	23
Baylor	9.4	27	34.6	36	25.2	38
Georgia Tech	8.7	28	33.4	43	24.7	36
Arkansas	8.6	29	35.7	32	27	51
Oregon	8.6	30	39.5	10	30.9	76
Boise State	8.2	31	37.3	24	29	62
UCLA	8	32	32.1	52	24.1	32
Mississippi State	7.9	33	38.4	15	30.5	74
Kansas State	7.7	34	35.3	34	27.6	53
Nebraska	7.6	35	28.5	73	20.8	19
Pittsburgh	7.2	36	39.1	12	31.9	80
North Carolina	7.2	37	31.2	56	24	31
Northwestern	6.9	38	29.7	64	22.8	26
South Carolina	6.7	39	29.5	66	22.7	25
Washington State	6.4	40	36.6	28	30.1	70
Indiana	6	41	28.8	70	22.8	27
Houston	5.6	42	29.8	61	24.2	34
Colorado State	5.3	43	38	19	32.7	81
Utah	4.9	44	32.8	46	27.9	54
Kentucky	4.8	45	34.1	38	29.3	64
Colorado	4.5	46	32.8	45	28.3	56
Missouri	4.5	47	37.6	21	33.1	88
BYU	4.1	48	26.8	84	22.7	24
Western Kentucky	4	49	34.4	37	30.4	71
South Florida	3.9	50	40	8	36.1	108
Memphis	3.6	51	36.6	27	33	86
Iowa	3.5	52	23.5	107	20.1	16
California	3.3	53	37	26	33.7	95
Michigan State	3.3	54	27.6	80	24.3	35
Iowa State	3.3	55	36.1	30	32.8	84
Toledo	3.3	56	38.2	18	34.9	100
San Diego State	3.1	57	29.8	62	26.7	48
Vanderbilt	2.9	58	28.7	71	25.8	41
Appalachian State	2.7	59	29.1	68	26.4	45
Syracuse	2.5	60	32.1	53	29.6	65
Minnesota	2.4	61	25.3	98	22.8	28
Temple	2.3	62	25.6	92	23.3	29
Duke	2.1	63	31	58	28.9	59
Oregon State	2.1	64	28.9	69	26.9	49
West Virginia	1.9	65	32.4	50	30.5	72
Arizona State	1.9	66	37.3	23	35.4	102
Wake Forest	1.7	67	25.5	95	23.7	30
Arizona	1.1	68	32.5	49	31.4	77
Texas Tech	-0.1	69	40.2	7	40.4	125
Maryland	-0.7	70	25.6	90	26.3	44
Virginia	-0.7	71	26.5	85	27.3	52
Cincinnati	-1.4	72	25.3	97	26.7	46
Central Florida	-1.9	73	24.8	100	26.7	47
Troy	-2	74	27.9	77	29.8	69
Boston College	-2.1	75	18.4	123	20.6	17
Utah State	-2.2	76	27.5	81	29.7	66
Navy	-2.3	77	32.6	47	34.9	99
Tulsa	-2.4	78	27.4	82	29.8	68
Western Michigan	-2.5	79	26.5	86	29	60
Wyoming	-3.6	80	29.2	67	32.8	82
Louisiana Tech	-3.9	81	33.7	41	37.6	114
Northern Illinois	-3.9	82	29.6	65	33.6	93
SMU	-4.8	83	30.4	60	35.3	101
Arkansas State	-4.8	84	23.1	108	28	55
Illinois	-4.9	85	23.9	104	28.7	58
Southern Miss	-5.8	86	27.4	83	33.1	87
Middle Tennessee	-7.2	87	33.9	39	41.1	127
UTSA	-7.3	88	25.5	93	32.8	83
Miami-OH	-7.3	89	24.2	102	31.5	78
Eastern Michigan	-7.5	90	29.7	63	37.2	112
Old Dominion	-7.7	91	25.6	91	33.3	89
Purdue	-7.7	92	25.7	89	33.4	90
East Carolina	-7.7	93	27.8	78	35.5	104
Bowling Green	-8	94	27.7	79	35.6	107
Tulane	-8.2	95	18.9	120	27	50
Rutgers	-8.2	96	17.2	125	25.4	39
Florida Atlantic	-8.3	97	31.4	54	39.7	121
Ball State	-8.7	98	28	75	36.6	111
Marshall	-8.8	99	21.8	114	30.6	75
Central Michigan	-8.8	100	24.7	101	33.5	91
Georgia Southern	-9.5	101	21	117	30.5	73
Hawaii	-9.8	102	28.4	74	38.2	115
Air Force	-10.2	103	31.1	57	41.2	128
Georgia State	-10.2	104	18.8	121	29	61
San Jose State	-10.5	105	23.7	105	34.1	97
Florida International	-10.6	106	25.7	88	36.4	109
Army	-10.7	107	21.1	116	31.7	79
Ohio	-11.5	108	17	126	28.5	57
Fresno State	-11.6	109	22	113	33.6	94
UL-Lafayette	-11.8	110	17.3	124	29.1	63
New Mexico	-12	111	33.7	42	45.7	130
South Alabama	-12	112	22.1	112	34.1	96
Coastal Carolina	-12.1	113	25.3	96	37.4	113
Massachusetts	-12.5	114	23	109	35.5	105
North Texas	-12.6	115	20.4	118	33	85
Nevada	-13	116	23.6	106	36.6	110
Idaho	-13.3	117	25.8	87	39.2	118
Kansas	-13.4	118	22.2	111	35.5	106
UNLV	-13.4	119	28.7	72	42.1	129
New Mexico State	-14.2	120	25.5	94	39.7	120
UL-Monroe	-15.2	121	24.9	99	40.1	124
Kent State	-15.6	122	18.7	122	34.2	98
Akron	-15.8	123	23.9	103	39.8	122
Connecticut	-16.6	124	17	127	33.6	92
UTEP	-16.6	125	22.9	110	39.5	119
Rice	-17.2	126	21.2	115	38.4	116
Charlotte	-19.5	127	19.5	119	39	117
Buffalo	-20.4	128	15.1	129	35.5	103
Texas State	-23.7	129	16.7	128	40.4	126
UAB	-27.7	130	12.3	130	40	123

There are a couple of tiny shifts in the top 15.

Thanks to the return of star safety Derwin James, FSU has crept about half a point ahead of Ohio State for the No. 2 spot, which means Week 1 will feature a matchup of the top two projected teams in the country.

When accounting for players returning from major injuries, I wait until August to add in the numbers from their most recent healthy seasons. This is for a couple reasons. One, I don’t have a full accounting of each team’s injuries until I create each team’s preview, which can happen months after the initial S&P+ rankings publish. Two, there’s more certainty about whether these players are returning healthy. FSU has James returning kicks, so it’s safe to say he’s healthy.

Granted, Alabama is starting out more than a touchdown ahead of FSU — the Tide are as far ahead of the Noles as the Noles are of No. 13 Washington. Still, No. 1 vs. No. 2 is always going to be an exciting thing.

Another slight shift: thanks to the addition of transfer quarterback Jarrett Stidham’s Baylor stats to Auburn’s returning production figures, the Tigers now ease ahead of Penn State by half a point, into the No. 8 spot overall.