In his three best games of 2016, against Southern Miss, Arkansas, and Texas A&M, LSU quarterback Danny Etling completed 66 percent of his passes with a 192.1 passer rating.
Why Mississippi State could teach us a lot about LSU’s offense
LSU hasn’t had to open up its playbook in two easy season-opening wins. That will change against Mississippi State on Saturday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
In his first two games of 2017, against BYU and Chattanooga, he completed 71 percent with a 189.5 rating.
Things have gone well for the maligned senior quarterback to date, but that’s to be expected: BYU and Chattanooga don’t have elite defenses. We might later find out that BYU’s is very good, but LSU never had to worry about the Cougars scoring, and the Tigers were able to ease into a 27-0 win.
On Saturday, against Mississippi State in Starkville, LSU is going to probably have to actually score. So now, in the third week of the year, new offensive coordinator Matt Canada begins to actually earn his money.
LSU is currently second in the S&P+ ratings, and while you may scoff at that because it involves preseason projections (which involve recruiting rankings, which are always friendly to the Tigers), one of the driving factors in those projections is recent history. Recent history includes last year’s No. 4 S&P+ finish.
How did they finish that high? Because they only lost to teams with the most elite of elite defenses:
There were two LSUs in 2016, and this was the case whether Les Miles or Ed Orgeron was leading the way. The LSU facing anything other than elite defense was dominant. The LSU facing an elite defense was feckless.
LSU vs. opponents with top-10 defense per Def. S&P+ (0-4): Avg. score: Opp 15, LSU 9 | Avg. percentile performance: 73% (~top 35) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 4.9, LSU 4.9
LSU vs. opponents with a mortal defense (8-0): Avg. score: LSU 38, Opp 16 | Avg. percentile performance: 95% (~top five) | Avg. yards per play: LSU 7.5, Opp 4.7
The Tiger defense, led by coordinator Dave Aranda, was lights-out, no matter what. Only one opponent all season (Texas A&M) scored more than 21 points, and LSU ranked third in Def. S&P+ at year’s end.
The offense, however, needed a physical advantage. When it had that, it was untouchable. Running backs Leonard Fournette and Guice ran wild and opened up just enough passing lanes for embattled QB Danny Etling.
The Tigers had no Plan B, though. They had a passer rating of 100.4 in losses and 146.4 in wins. If you were sound enough to control the run, the pass was erased.
That’s where offensive coordinator Matt Canada comes in.
Against Mississippi State, LSU’s offense will have to try more things.
On this week’s PAPN, Steven Godfrey and I discussed LSU-MSU as part of our Saturday rundown. It starts around 42:45:
The text of our exchange about LSU’s offense vs. MSU’s defense:
Godfrey: I really think LSU at Mississippi State is going to be a really interesting game.
BC: That’s one of the two games I’m most interested in. When I say that, it’s like ‘What are we going to learn about the teams?’ interesting, not, like, national title interesting. Although technically LSU, until they lose, is a national title contender.
Godfrey: [angry Mississippi voice] What’d you say about them Dawgs, Bill?
BC: LSU has looked pretty much perfect so far. I realize they haven’t opened up the playbook all that much. They haven’t had to, and they’re not going to until they have to. But they kinda have to this week. If anybody’s gonna score some points on LSU, it’s going to be Mississippi State, especially in Starkville. They’ve got a really solid offense and a defense that will attack LSU and might have just enough, um, girth along the front four — I guess front three now — they might be able to frustrate LSU a little bit in terms of the ground game.
Godfrey: This is 100 percent the plan for [MSU defensive coordinator] Todd Grantham: bother Etling. They’re not going to beat them in space, they’re not going to beat them on matchups — secondary vs. receiving vs. tight end vs. running back. They’re not going to do that. That’s not how Mississippi State wins these games. They’re going to win by bringing all-out hell and confusion. That’s what [Geoff] Collins succeeded at when he was a defensive coordinator there.
I’m not saying they’re not a talented defense. They are. They have talented pieces on that defense. They are going to have to bring a level of confusion and just a general level of discomfort for Etling to start making bad decisions and making mistakes in a system he’s only run for two games.
BC: Yeah, so far — and this is against Charleston Southern and Louisiana Tech — so far Mississippi State is fifth in the country in success rate and fifth in my explosiveness measure, IsoPPP. Again, that’s not adjusted for opponent, but they still completely and totally shut down Charleston Southern and Louisiana Tech, and Louisiana Tech’s got athletes. They’re not going to completely shut down LSU, but they don’t have to if they’re scoring some points.
This is a very, very — on both sides of the ball — this is an extremely efficient team, and they will make LSU play. This is the official start of LSU’s season now. I assume LSU will pass the test, but we don’t know it until it happens.
MSU’s defense is talented enough to be a problem for LSU.
Grantham had Louisville playing at a top 20 level in Def. S&P+ over the last two seasons, and it appears early on that his MSU personnel has adapted well to his scheme. I doubt the Bulldogs make the year-end Def. S&P+ top 10, but they could come pretty close, and they could have the horses to scare the Tigers.
Three matchups in particular to watch:
You could argue that the list starts and ends with “Grantham vs. Canada,” but we’ll take it a little further.
- MSU nose guard Jeffery Simmons vs. Will Clapp and the LSU interior. Grantham inherited personnel well suited for a move to a 3-4, and while Simmons isn’t exactly Shaun Cody or something, at 6’4, 301, he’s big enough considering his quickness. The Bulldog front has made a lot of plays so far this year (considering a three-man front is often just trying to occupy blockers), and if Derrius Guice and the LSU backs are having to break tackles or make adjustments in the backfield, that’s an enormous win for the Bulldogs.
- LSU WR D.J. Chark vs. either of two corners (Lashard Durr and Tolando Cleveland). Neither LSU’s receiving corps nor MSU’s secondary has been challenged yet. In two starts, Durr and Cleveland have combined for just two assisted tackles and a pass breakup. Chark, meanwhile, is one of two Tiger receivers targeted more than three times thus far (the other: possession man Russell Gage). Chark is lanky and fast and has caught seven of 10 balls for an explosive 180 yards. Big plays will bail out LSU if the run game isn’t efficient.
- Yes, Grantham vs. Canada. Canada is quickly becoming a master of shifts and motion and creating confusion, and Grantham’s defenses are typically very high-havoc. There will be a lot of moving chess pieces here, and it could result in some massive breakdowns (and, therefore, big plays) in either direction.
I would be impressed if it’s that high scoring, but something in the 24-17 range is a possibility, and if the Bulldogs score some cheap points off turnovers and special teams and really force the Tigers into a track meet of sorts, we’ll learn everything we need to know about Orgeron’s team in his first full season with the head coaching job.
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