For the 2018 draft, the NFL machine long ago decided on its out-of-nowhere guy, almost a year ahead of schedule. For months now, Wyoming QB Josh Allen has been considered a likely top-10 pick by analysts and reporters alike, ranking alongside former five-star Josh Rosen of UCLA and Rose Bowl winner Sam Darnold of USC, and ahead of big-number producers like Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, Washington State’s Luke Falk, and Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph.
Josh Allen’s weirdly early NFL draft hype wasn’t his fault
He’s not as accomplished as Lamar Jackson or as promising as Josh Rosen, but let’s just appreciate him for what he is right now.
Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images
A Yahoo! story called Allen one of “the big three,” along with Rosen and Darnold. SB Nation’s first mock draft predicted him at No. 3. At one point, Bleacher Report had Allen at No. 3 in 2017, let alone 2018. The extremely plugged-in Adam Schefter reported 12 months in advance that Allen’s earning No. 1 buzz. None of these outlets did anything wrong in context, since this was all based on some combination of just-for-fun early projecting, genuine scouting, and journalism (actual NFL scouts really do like Allen).
Still, Allen’s soaring status amounted to little more than these three things:
- He’s 6’5.
- He plays for Craig Bohl, a defensive-minded head coach whose offense produced Carson Wentz at North Dakota State.
- He’s mobile and has a strong arm.
Allen’s numbers have been nothing special (in 2016, he ranked third among the other sophomores in his mid-major conference in passer rating), and that was before he put up a 23-of-40, 174-yard, two-interceptions line in a 24-3 loss at Iowa to start 2017. Those interceptions were both really bad.
In his two games against Power 5 teams, he’s thrown a total of seven picks (five against Nebraska). Iowa’s much more talented than Wyoming, it was a road game, he displayed some Roethlisberger-like unsackability ...
... and the Hawkeyes are always pretty good on defense.
But you’d expect a better day out of a potential No. 1 QB pick.
Here’s how I feel about Allen, a day after Wyoming-Iowa:
When our college football group here at SB Nation was divvying up Week 1 noon watch duties, I claimed Wyoming-Iowa. I kind of wanted to make sure I hadn’t missed something about Allen. But I mostly wanted to be able to say, “I told you so,” to those who’d pegged him as the country’s best quarterback. I’m not proud that I felt these things. I’m just telling you what happened. It wasn’t about Allen at all; it was about the NFL apparatus making foreign proclamations about our sport years earlier in the process than usual. In hindsight, I do feel bad about waiting to see an amateur athlete struggle.
None of this is Allen’s fault. He’s a talented athlete. His team is a blast in Mountain West games. The Cowboys were one of 2016’s feel-good stories, coming out of nowhere to win their first division title ever.
Going forward, I’m gonna try to ignore the NFL hype and just appreciate Allen for what he currently is: a promising, entertaining, small-school quarterback. If he goes on a surprise tear for the rest of the season and makes first-round money, excellent.
If the NFL side were able to wait until after junior seasons to start picking out seemingly random players, that would also be excellent, but I understand why talented college quarterbacks will always face massive spotlights.
See More:
