Here are Alabama’s year-end S&P+ rankings since 2009, Nick Saban’s first national title campaign in Tuscaloosa.
130-team college football S&P+ rankings: The more things change ...
Alabama resumes its post atop the S&P+ rankings, though Georgia isn’t that far behind.
Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
- 2009: second
- 2010: fourth
- 2011: second
- 2012: first
- 2013: second
- 2014: second
- 2015: first
- 2016: first
- 2017, with one more game to play: first
Alabama’s offense is more limited than in recent years, and its defense has shown hints of mortality as the injury bug has bitten. And yet, with Monday’s 24-6 win over Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, the Tide hit the doorstep of another national title and resumed their post atop the S&P+ rankings.
Below are my S&P+ ratings, updated after bowl season.
A reminder: S&P+ is intended to be predictive and forward looking. Good predictive ratings are not résumé ratings, and they don’t give you bonus points for wins and losses. They simply compare expected output to actual output and adjust accordingly.
(You can find full unit rankings, plus a yearly archive, at Football Outsiders. Also, if the chart below isn’t loading friendly on your mobile device, that Football Outsiders link should work.)
Post-bowl S&P+ rankings
Team | Rec. | S&P+ | Rk | Last Wk | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 12-1 | 20.8 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Ohio State | 12-2 | 20.8 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Georgia | 13-1 | 18.6 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Penn State | 11-2 | 17.2 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Washington | 10-3 | 16.7 | 5 | 4 | -1 |
| Wisconsin | 13-1 | 16.6 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Central Florida | 13-0 | 15.4 | 7 | 9 | 2 |
| Clemson | 12-2 | 15.3 | 8 | 7 | -1 |
| Oklahoma | 12-2 | 15.0 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| Auburn | 10-4 | 14.2 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Florida Atlantic | 11-3 | 13.4 | 11 | 12 | 1 |
| Oklahoma State | 10-3 | 13.1 | 12 | 11 | -1 |
| Notre Dame | 10-3 | 11.2 | 13 | 14 | 1 |
| TCU | 11-3 | 11.0 | 14 | 13 | -1 |
| South Florida | 10-2 | 10.4 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| Louisville | 8-5 | 9.3 | 16 | 17 | 1 |
| Miami-FL | 10-3 | 9.2 | 17 | 19 | 2 |
| Appalachian State | 9-4 | 9.1 | 18 | 35 | 17 |
| Michigan State | 10-3 | 9.1 | 19 | 27 | 8 |
| Memphis | 10-3 | 9.1 | 20 | 18 | -2 |
| LSU | 9-4 | 9.1 | 21 | 20 | -1 |
| Ohio | 9-4 | 8.8 | 22 | 33 | 11 |
| Boise State | 11-3 | 8.1 | 23 | 28 | 5 |
| Fresno State | 10-4 | 8.1 | 24 | 25 | 1 |
| Arkansas State | 7-5 | 8.1 | 25 | 23 | -2 |
| USC | 11-3 | 8.1 | 26 | 22 | -4 |
| Michigan | 8-5 | 7.8 | 27 | 21 | -6 |
| Mississippi State | 9-4 | 7.8 | 28 | 26 | -2 |
| Virginia Tech | 9-4 | 7.6 | 29 | 24 | -5 |
| Toledo | 11-3 | 7.5 | 30 | 16 | -14 |
| Troy | 11-2 | 7.4 | 31 | 37 | 6 |
| Stanford | 9-5 | 7.1 | 32 | 30 | -2 |
| Utah | 7-6 | 6.9 | 33 | 39 | 6 |
| San Diego State | 10-3 | 6.6 | 34 | 38 | 4 |
| Missouri | 7-6 | 6.4 | 35 | 32 | -3 |
| Houston | 7-5 | 6.4 | 36 | 29 | -7 |
| Wake Forest | 8-5 | 6.0 | 37 | 36 | -1 |
| NC State | 9-4 | 5.9 | 38 | 45 | 7 |
| Washington State | 9-4 | 5.4 | 39 | 31 | -8 |
| Southern Miss | 8-5 | 5.2 | 40 | 34 | -6 |
| Purdue | 7-6 | 5.1 | 41 | 41 | 0 |
| Ole Miss | 6-6 | 5.0 | 42 | 46 | 4 |
| Florida State | 7-6 | 4.9 | 43 | 51 | 8 |
| Iowa State | 8-5 | 4.8 | 44 | 44 | 0 |
| Colorado State | 7-6 | 4.7 | 45 | 42 | -3 |
| Northwestern | 10-3 | 4.7 | 46 | 43 | -3 |
| Oregon | 7-6 | 4.7 | 47 | 40 | -7 |
| Arizona | 7-6 | 4.1 | 48 | 49 | 1 |
| Iowa | 8-5 | 3.8 | 49 | 47 | -2 |
| Texas | 7-6 | 3.7 | 50 | 54 | 4 |
| Indiana | 5-7 | 3.5 | 51 | 50 | -1 |
| Marshall | 8-5 | 3.5 | 52 | 58 | 6 |
| Wyoming | 8-5 | 3.4 | 53 | 61 | 8 |
| Northern Illinois | 8-5 | 3.3 | 54 | 48 | -6 |
| UTSA | 6-5 | 3.3 | 55 | 52 | -3 |
| Miami-OH | 5-7 | 3.2 | 56 | 53 | -3 |
| Utah State | 6-7 | 2.8 | 57 | 55 | -2 |
| Texas Tech | 6-7 | 2.8 | 58 | 57 | -1 |
| Army | 10-3 | 2.1 | 59 | 59 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 9-4 | 2.0 | 60 | 66 | 6 |
| Texas A&M | 7-6 | 2.0 | 61 | 64 | 3 |
| North Texas | 9-5 | 1.9 | 62 | 56 | -6 |
| West Virginia | 7-6 | 1.6 | 63 | 62 | -1 |
| Kansas State | 8-5 | 1.3 | 64 | 65 | 1 |
| Duke | 7-6 | 1.2 | 65 | 70 | 5 |
| Boston College | 7-6 | 1.0 | 66 | 67 | 1 |
| SMU | 7-6 | 0.9 | 67 | 60 | -7 |
| Middle Tennessee | 7-6 | 0.9 | 68 | 71 | 3 |
| Navy | 7-6 | 0.9 | 69 | 78 | 9 |
| Eastern Michigan | 5-7 | 0.9 | 70 | 68 | -2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 7-6 | 0.8 | 71 | 80 | 9 |
| New Mexico State | 7-6 | 0.6 | 72 | 69 | -3 |
| Georgia Tech | 5-6 | 0.5 | 73 | 72 | -1 |
| Western Michigan | 6-6 | 0.2 | 74 | 74 | 0 |
| Buffalo | 6-6 | 0.2 | 75 | 76 | 1 |
| UAB | 8-5 | 0.1 | 76 | 63 | -13 |
| UCLA | 6-7 | 0.1 | 77 | 75 | -2 |
| Temple | 7-6 | -0.2 | 78 | 86 | 8 |
| Central Michigan | 8-5 | -0.7 | 79 | 73 | -6 |
| Vanderbilt | 5-7 | -1.2 | 80 | 81 | 1 |
| Arizona State | 7-6 | -1.4 | 81 | 79 | -2 |
| Pittsburgh | 5-7 | -1.5 | 82 | 82 | 0 |
| Western Kentucky | 6-7 | -1.8 | 83 | 84 | 1 |
| Massachusetts | 4-8 | -1.8 | 84 | 85 | 1 |
| Virginia | 6-7 | -1.9 | 85 | 77 | -8 |
| Florida | 4-7 | -2.2 | 86 | 87 | 1 |
| California | 5-7 | -2.5 | 87 | 88 | 1 |
| Syracuse | 4-8 | -2.7 | 88 | 89 | 1 |
| Tulane | 5-7 | -2.8 | 89 | 90 | 1 |
| Kentucky | 7-6 | -3.1 | 90 | 94 | 4 |
| Arkansas | 4-8 | -3.2 | 91 | 92 | 1 |
| Florida International | 8-5 | -3.2 | 92 | 83 | -9 |
| Colorado | 5-7 | -3.2 | 93 | 91 | -2 |
| North Carolina | 3-9 | -3.6 | 94 | 93 | -1 |
| UNLV | 5-7 | -4.4 | 95 | 95 | 0 |
| Georgia State | 7-5 | -4.7 | 96 | 101 | 5 |
| Minnesota | 5-7 | -4.8 | 97 | 96 | -1 |
| South Alabama | 4-8 | -4.9 | 98 | 97 | -1 |
| Idaho | 4-8 | -5.2 | 99 | 98 | -1 |
| Air Force | 5-7 | -5.4 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
| BYU | 4-9 | -5.4 | 101 | 99 | -2 |
| Cincinnati | 4-8 | -5.8 | 102 | 103 | 1 |
| Nebraska | 4-8 | -5.9 | 103 | 102 | -1 |
| New Mexico | 3-9 | -6.1 | 104 | 104 | 0 |
| UL-Monroe | 4-8 | -6.4 | 105 | 105 | 0 |
| Baylor | 1-11 | -6.5 | 106 | 106 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 4-8 | -6.9 | 107 | 107 | 0 |
| Nevada | 3-9 | -7.2 | 108 | 108 | 0 |
| Bowling Green | 2-10 | -7.2 | 109 | 109 | 0 |
| Rutgers | 4-8 | -7.4 | 110 | 111 | 1 |
| Coastal Carolina | 3-9 | -8.0 | 111 | 112 | 1 |
| Akron | 7-7 | -8.5 | 112 | 110 | -2 |
| UL-Lafayette | 5-7 | -8.6 | 113 | 113 | 0 |
| Maryland | 4-8 | -8.8 | 114 | 114 | 0 |
| Old Dominion | 5-7 | -9.7 | 115 | 115 | 0 |
| Tulsa | 2-10 | -9.9 | 116 | 116 | 0 |
| Texas State | 2-10 | -10.1 | 117 | 117 | 0 |
| Illinois | 2-10 | -11.0 | 118 | 118 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 3-9 | -11.4 | 119 | 119 | 0 |
| Georgia Southern | 2-10 | -11.6 | 120 | 120 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 3-9 | -11.8 | 121 | 121 | 0 |
| Ball State | 2-10 | -13.3 | 122 | 122 | 0 |
| East Carolina | 3-9 | -13.9 | 123 | 123 | 0 |
| Charlotte | 1-11 | -14.6 | 124 | 124 | 0 |
| Kansas | 1-11 | -14.7 | 125 | 125 | 0 |
| Kent State | 2-10 | -14.9 | 126 | 127 | 1 |
| Oregon State | 1-11 | -14.9 | 127 | 126 | -1 |
| Rice | 1-11 | -15.0 | 128 | 128 | 0 |
| San Jose State | 2-11 | -16.2 | 129 | 129 | 0 |
| UTEP | 0-12 | -18.5 | 130 | 130 | 0 |
Bowl season’s top movers (good)
- Appalachian State (up 17 spots, from 35th to 18th)
- Ohio (up 11 spots, from 33rd to 22nd)
- Navy (up nine spots, from 78th to 69th)
- Louisiana Tech (up nine spots, from 80th to 71st)
- Michigan State (up eight spots, from 27th to 19th)
- Florida State (up eight spots, from 51st to 43rd)
- Wyoming (up eight spots, from 61st to 53rd)
- Temple (up eight spots, from 86th to 78th)
- NC State (up seven spots, from 45th to 38th)
With each passing year, we grow more isolated. Power conferences, for instance, are moving to nine-game slate with “must play another P5 team in non-conference play” scheduling requirements. That constricts connectivity among conferences.
Bowl season is no different. Barely any P5 teams played before Christmas, leaving almost entirely G5 vs. G5 matchups. After Christmas, nearly every game was P5 vs. P5. That hurts computer ratings. I will be revisiting how best to make opponent adjustments once the season is officially over.
That said, most of the bowl season movers were pretty predictable. Appalachian State moved up 17 spots for destroying Toledo, while Toledo moved down 14 spots. Ohio moved up 11 spots for destroying UAB, while UAB moved down 13 spots. Et cetera.
At the top of the rankings, we did have some noteworthy moves. Alabama jumped slightly ahead of Ohio State with its win over Clemson, and Penn State jumped Washington after beating the Huskies by a touchdown in the Fiesta Bowl. UCF moved up to seventh after beating Auburn, a team that beat both of the national title game participants. The Knights crept ahead of both semifinal losers, Clemson and Oklahoma. I think that’s justifiable.
Bowl season’s top movers (bad)
- Toledo (down 14 spots, from 16th to 30th)
- UAB (down 13 spots, from 63rd to 76th)
- FIU (down nine spots, from 83rd to 92nd)
- Washington State (down eight spots, from 31st to 39th)
- Virginia (down eight spots, from 77th to 85th)
- Houston (down seven spots, from 29th to 36th)
- Oregon (down seven spots, from 40th to 47th)
- SMU (down seven spots, from 60th to 67th)
The biggest surprise here: Virginia only moved down eight spots after laying the biggest egg of bowl season (Toledo aside), an outright debacle against Navy.
SEC! SEC! SEC! SEC!
FBS conferences, ranked by average S&P+ rating:
- SEC (plus-5.0, up 0.2)
- ACC (plus-3.7, up 0.0)
- Big Ten (plus-3.6, down 0.1)
- Big 12 (plus-3.2, down 0.1)
- Pac-12 (plus-2.6, down 0.3)
- AAC (minus-0.2, down 0.1)
- Mountain West (minus-1.4, up 0.3)
- MAC (minus-1.7, down 0.2)
- Conference USA (minus-2.4, down 0.1)
- Sun Belt (minus-2.9, up 0.4)
The Big Ten made waves by nearly going unbeaten in bowl play, finishing 7-1. Only, seven Big Ten teams were favored; in the end, one (Purdue) pulled a slight upset, and one (Michigan) got upset. So in terms of S&P+ averages, the conference basically stayed where it was — third place, slightly behind the ACC and a point and a half behind the SEC.
The SEC was not nearly as high-quality as it has been in other recent seasons, but in a year with minimal dominance, impressive January 1 results (Bama over Clemson, Georgia over Oklahoma, South Carolina over Michigan) assured that the league would once again finish No. 1 in S&P+.
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