UCF, a college football team that claimed a historically reasonable national title after an undefeated season in 2017, is again undefeated entering Week 8 of 2018.
Don’t assume UCF’s running away in the New Year’s Six race
If the Knights don’t lose, they’re probably in. But the numbers say they’re likely to lose, and then things could get chaotic.
The Knights are the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in the AP Poll, at No. 10. They’re not going to climb a lot higher than that once the College Football Playoff committee starts putting out rankings at the end of October. 2017’s committee stuck unbeaten UCF at No. 12 on Selection Sunday, a mile out of the Playoff picture, despite having lost zero games.
But UCF still made (and won) the Peach Bowl against Auburn in 2017, as the only mid-major to get a New Year’s Six bowl nod. The top-ranked mid-major champion grabs an at-large New Year’s slot every year in one of the four big non-Playoff bowls, and conventional wisdom holds that UCF’s in the driver’s seat to be that team again in 2018.
The Knights shouldn’t be considered automatic frontrunners for that spot.
To be clear, if they go undefeated, they’re going to get it. But they’re only halfway to 11-0, and S&P+ pegs their chances of finishing that way at 31 percent. (As it did last regular season, UCF’s playing 11 regular season games because of a hurricane cancelation.) They hit Week 8 as one of three unbeatens in the AAC East, and while Cincinnati seems likely to fade somewhat, the Knights have to play a road game against USF on Nov. 23.
If UCF loses a game, the Knights suddenly fall into a big pot of good teams. Even if they win the AAC after that, they’re not an obvious standout from other potential G5 champs. ESPN’s College GameDay laid out a number of advanced metrics that make that case:
(All of those other teams have one loss heading into Week 8.)
Here’s a deeper explanation of S&P+, SB Nation’s favored advanced stat, which draws on play-by-play data and adjusts for quality of opponent.
“Why are we focusing just on UCF?” Kirk Herbstreit asked. Indeed, Fresno State and Applachian State both grade out comparably. The metrics don’t like one-loss Utah State quite as much, but if the Aggies won the Mountain West and didn’t lose another game, they’d be in the hunt, too. While an unbeaten UCF would be in barring a surprise, a one-loss UCF wouldn’t. (You can go back and forth on how likely it is someone catches an unbeaten UCF is. I have, even in the time I’ve been writing this post. It’s possible.)
UCF’s probably not going unbeaten, and if it doesn’t, the Knights are no more a frontrunner than Fresno State.
And maybe no more than Appalachian State, which has looked incredible all season, including in a Week 1 near-upset of Penn State. It’s a bit unlikely that the committee would put a Sun Belt team in the New Year’s Six, but a one-loss Fresno State or Utah State could challenge UCF in this case. If things get wild, so could a two-loss Boise State.
Oh, and there’d be whoever wins the AAC, the best non-power conference of them all. An unbeaten USF or Cincinnati would get a New Year’s nod.
It’d be nice if we were having this discussion about something with higher stakes than a really big non-Playoff bowl.
There’s one obvious, viable plan to guarantee the top-ranked Group of 5 champion a chance in the Playoff: make the Playoff eight teams large. Bill Connelly sketches it out:
The field would be the five power conference champions, the best Group of 5 team, and two at-large bids, all ranked by committee. (I will also force-feed the committee quality advanced stats.)
If the promotion-and-relegation structure I am also recommending were to take shape, that would eliminate the need for a mid-major auto-bid; that would mean five champions and three at-large teams.
Regardless, access to a national title should be requisite to FBS membership. (The other levels already have relatively fair tournaments.)
Quarterfinals around December 17, semifinals on New Year’s Eve/Day, and finals around January 15. If you want to get bowls involved, fine, but giving early home-field advantage to the top four seeds would make regular-season games as meaningful as possible.
Here’s an example, using the 2016 season.
-8 Western Michigan (G5 rep) at 1 Alabama (SEC champ)
-5 Penn State (Big Ten champ) at 4 Washington (Pac-12 champ)
-6 Michigan (at-large) at 3 Ohio State (at-large)*
-7 Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) at 2 Clemson (ACC champ)
That plan could certainly be implemented. Until something like it is, this is what mid-majors have. And 2018’s race should be dramatic all the way through Championship Weekend.
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