All wagers at -110 odds and for 1 unit unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
The best college football gambling picks for week 10, including Penn State
The early betting lines often allow for the most value.
Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports
Season record ATS: 115-86 (57.2%)
Last week I went 16-6. If I can do that every week I’ll quit sports writing and move to Vegas.
I often tell readers that the best bets can be found in the opening lines on Sunday afternoons. Lines tend to be sharper after they’ve been bet all week. Most of my plays are made early in the week. Note that some of the lines below have since changed.
Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250-500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less.
Because I make these wagers throughout the week, I order them by when they were made.
Picks made Thursday, November 1
This week, there are two games which have swung all the way across my valuation, so I am playing back against my initial plays for the middle. Those wagers are Ohio State -17 and Memphis -12.
Here’s how a middle works. You play both sides of the game thanks to a line moving, hoping that the game lands between the two. Obviously, both bets cannot be lost, so the most that can be lost is the juice for one losing wager. To break even on two middle wagers at -110 odds each, a bettor must win 1 in 20 times. So any middle chance needs to be greater than five percent odds to make sense.
In the case of Memphis and East Carolina, I have Memphis -12 and East Carolina +17.5, so I would push and win if Memphis wins by 12, win both if Memphis wins by 13, 14, 15, 16, or 17, and come away with one loss and one win if any other result happens. I give myself about an nine percent chance of hitting both.
I also have some plays which have now drifted to me.
- Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina +15.5 (-105): CCU is not that bad, and even if App State gets QB Zac Thomas back, I like this at over two touchdowns.
- Fresno State at UNLV +26 (+100): Fresno has been a great cover team for me this season, but this is just a lot of points for a squad to lay on the road with Boise on deck next week.
I am also still watching the following teams and will likely be back Friday with a few more plays: Iowa, Baylor, Rutgers, Marshall, USF, SJSU, Kansas, UConn, Missouri, Duke, ULM, and Ole Miss.
Picks made Sunday, October 28
As other casinos open up, so do other opportunities. Here are three more I added.
- Michigan State at Maryland +3 (-105): According to my numbers, I’d like to play either of these teams at a field goal or better.
- Florida State at N.C. State -6.5 (-115): I’d like to play anything under a touchdown with the Wolfpack, or anything north of 11 with the Seminoles.
- Colorado +4 at Arizona: This seems like a massive overreaction to Arizona’s win over Oregon, which came in an obvious flat spot for the Ducks.
I fire away on Sundays, and then wait for the lines to come back to me.
- FAU at Florida International pk -115: FIU has been the better football team this year, and though home-field advantage is basically nothing here due to the proximity and small fanbases, I’ll still take the Golden Panthers.
- Penn State +11.5 (-105) at Michigan: I have successfully bet Michigan a lot recently, but this is a ton of points.
- Louisiana Tech +21.5 at Mississippi State: Mississippi State has a great defense, but struggles to score. This is a weird motivational, right in the middle of an SEC schedule. I would not take less than 20 here.
- Liberty at Massachusetts -2: The Minutemen are somewhat improved this season, and I’ll look to play them at anything under a field goal.
- Charlotte +22 at Tennessee: Charlotte is an improving football team and I would look to play any number 20 or greater.
- San Diego State at New Mexico +10.5: I like New Mexico in underdog spots, and San Diego State in underdog spots as well. Here’s to a low scoring, ball-control fest.
- Air Force at Army -6: Army is a quality football team. Air Force is off a tough contest against Boise. I’d take anything a TD or less.
- Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan -12.5: EMU has a stellar defense. I think it will give its offense enough short fields for the blowout.
- Oklahoma at Texas Tech +13: Texas Tech has an improved defense, and it got back to scoring well on Saturday against Iowa State.
- Memphis at East Carolina +17.5: I expected to see a number between 12 and 16, so when I saw 17.5, I grabbed it. Memphis can really score, but ECU has been feisty.
- Nebraska +24 at Ohio State: Maybe Ohio State has fixed its defense over the bye week. Here’s betting it won’t get enough stops to cover this.
- Navy at Cincinnati -11: I just don’t get the Navy love. Or maybe it’s the underestimating of Cincinnati. Either way, I’d play anything under two touchdowns.
- Houston at SMU +16: Houston was a great play last weekend for those who took it, but this is a big number.
- Miami Ohio +8.5 at Buffalo (Tuesday game): Buffalo has been a strong bet-on team, but I’d look to take Miami Ohio at anything over a touchdown.
Ongoing Futures/Props
I made 26 futures or prop bets which I published between May and August. My reasoning for making them can be found at the link. Updated analysis to come later in the week.
GOY lines (ATS)
The five games I played against the spread in the preseason ended up as advantage bets, but I went just 2-3 ($-130). I beat the closing line by 7.5, 4, 7, and 2, while I had one game which was off by 0.5. On average, the wagers I placed beat the closing line by four points, which was also what the median was. Though I lost on these wagers, I would absolutely place them again knowing what I know about where the closing lines ended up. These ATS games are included in my overall ATS record, above.
Season win totals
I currently project to come out ahead on my season win totals bets by a total of $160, with a projected ROI of ten percent.
I project my winners as Tennessee, Virginia, Boston College, UCLA, Stanford, and Virginia Tech.
Sure losers look to be Florida State, Oregon, and Washington State.
And Northwestern, Michigan State, Washington, and Pitt Oregon look too close to call.
Last week was a brutal week for my futures, though a great week in the ATS wagering.
Conference title bets
I took thee long(ish) shots here, and likely messed up by not hedging N.C. State and Georgia Tech both at at +6000 to win the ACC several weeks ago. USC at +485 to win the Pac-12 is on life support.
Playoff wagers
I placed four wagers on teams to make of miss the playoff. Alabama to miss the playoff looks like a sure loser, while Clemson to make looks very strong.
But it is my two longer shots which have me excited. Oklahoma at +425 and Notre Dame at +600 are both considerably ahead of their probabilities based on the ESPN Playoff Predictor. Getting one team in would be great. Two in would be a huge season of futures.
National Championship wagers
I took a stab with Washington at +2400, hoping to hedge. But the Huskies now have two losses, and the wager is deader than dead.
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