Remember when Auburn-Washington was Week 1’s most crucial game? Welp

Sometimes sloppy games between top teams in Week 1 aren’t indicative of anything.

2018’s opener between No. 9 Auburn and No. 6 Washington looked like a potential Playoff decider. While Michigan vs. Notre Dame got more attention, the game in Atlanta was supposed to feature bigger postseason stakes, with the Pac-12 favorite facing a serious challenger to Alabama.

And then it was just clunky. The Huskies struggled in the red zone, and the Tigers did just enough to win 21-16 without doing anything all that demonstrative.

But we’re now a full eight weeks removed from the 2018 openers, and with the benefit of hindsight, we know for sure what we could’ve only guessed then: Auburn and Washington are not great.

Offseason perception is sometimes hard to shake when evaluating teams, and Washington was ranked in the top 10 even after losing to Auburn. But in reality, the Huskies aren’t a top-10 team, and nobody would mistake them for that now.

Against the Tigers, the Huskies were just plain bad in scoring territory.

Washington scored 16 points on six trips inside the 40-yard line. That’s 2.7 points per scoring opportunity, well below the national average of 4.4 last season. Auburn wasn’t much better, with 21 points from six trips inside the 40.

In the red zone on back-to-back drives in the third quarter, they scored three points on drives that got to Auburn’s 8- and 3-yard line respectively. That efficiency hasn’t gotten any better over the course of the season. Heading into Week 10, Washington is 104th in red zone efficiency, and 116th in touchdown percentage inside the red zone. They were 2-2 in the loss against Cal, but the key number there is the two total red zone attempts.

Washington’s offense has had a few moments, but it was hopelessly inept in the loss to Cal. Longtime starting QB Jake Browning got benched in favor of Jake Haener, who threw a pick-six on his first drive. It was the only touchdown the Bears needed.

Washington’s now 4-2 in the league, yet somehow still has it all to play for in the Pac-12 North. A Rose Bowl berth is not out of the question. UW’s not bad. It’s just not the kind of elite team so many expected.

The Tigers were off in Week 9, and here’s hoping they used that bye to get some things sorted out with their run game, because it’s been ugly.

The Washington game was the first preview that Auburn’s running game would be punchless. The Tigers averaged 3.3 yards per rush, with leading ball-carrier Kam Martin getting 80 yards on 19 carries. The Tigers are 67th in rushing yards-per game, and average 4.4 yards-per-carry.

Gus Malzahn’s offenses are built on strong running games, but the running game has failed this team for various reasons. Auburn’s schedule still has both Alabama and Georgia on it, and there are questions about just what in the world will happen with Gus Malzahn when the season’s over, despite his $32 million buyout:

Auburn boosters can afford to help eat Malzahn’s contract, though that still won’t mean anyone will be delighted by its size.

University president Steven Leath is under fire as well, I’m told by a person who’d know, as Leath helped negotiate with Malzahn’s agent, Jimmy Sexton, for that fat contract

You wouldn’t have thought it after Week 1. Given the coaching staffs and their histories, they had both earned some benefit of the doubt that everything would be fine. You never want to go from ranked highly preseason team to unranked at season’s end, but these two teams are leading an unusually crowded race to do just that.

Now it’s a question of whether Washington will even win its division and whether Auburn can spoil something for Georgia or Alabama in an otherwise lost season.

Not exactly the things we thought would be at stake for either team back on Labor Day Weekend. And Michigan-Notre Dame will end up being way more important than this game after all.