2 longtime betting trends working in Texas’ favor against Oklahoma

You probably got tired of hearing about it a year or two ago, but Texas head coach Tom Herman has mostly maintained his status as a guy who gets underdog teams really ready to play.

When the odds are against his teams, they’ve typically become two or three touchdowns more powerful all of a sudden. Chalk it up to good #motivation skills or whatever you want. (The problem, of course, has been winning games as a favorite. Over the last three years, his teams are only 15-7 on the field in those games.)

For what it’s worth, the Longhorns are 8-point ‘dogs against Oklahoma in Dallas.

Going back to the mid-’90s, when Odds Shark’s database begins, Texas is on a 9-5 run against the spread as an underdog against the Sooners, including five outright upsets.

When facing a touchdown-plus line, as they are this Saturday, the Horns have been even better: 8-2 against the spread and 4-5 on the field.

THROW OUT THE RECORD BOOKS WHEN THESE TWO MEET is a cliche. But there’s plenty of truth to it.

Rivalries really are often more competitive than they should be (even in the pros, numbers skew toward betting the under in division games because familiarity tends to keep scores down).

And that’s particularly true for neutral-site games. A recent study found the country’s two hardest major rivalries to predict are Florida-Georgia and Texas-Oklahoma, both neutral-siters.

Maybe it’s only of interest to our friends in the desert, but there’s some substantial reason to think the Longhorns will give the Sooners more of a game than projected.